With a 6-4 stretch over the last ten the Guardians lead atop a surprisingly dominant AL Central division is up to six games. The Guardians’ strong bullpen was on display in the series opener, as five relievers combined to shut out the Blue Jays in the game’s final four innings.

The Guardians bullpen could be critical once again Saturday, as Cleveland will start struggling veteran Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco owns a 5.50 ERA this season and hasn’t finished more than five innings since May 10th.

The Blue Jays meanwhile will pitch a bullpen game, starting with Trevor Richards (3.31 ERA, 32 and 2/3 IP).

Let’s dive into the odds and relevant game notes for Saturday’s matchup between the Orioles and Blue Jays via bet365:

Carlos Carrasco pitched to a 6.80 ERA and 6.77 xERA in 2023, and the 37-year-old actually looks to be improved this season with a 5.50 ERA and 5.16 xERA. He owns a K/BB ratio of just 2.21, and has been hard-hit 40.1% of the time this season.

Carrasco’s fastball averages just 90 MPH, and opponents own a .544 xSLG against it. That can be viewed as a highly positive note for the Jays, who are being targeted with high-velocity fastballs a lot this season, and not finding much success. Since the 2022 season, Carrasco has allowed a .613 slug-rate against his fastballs, which is the second-highest mark among pitchers to throw over 150 innings.

Carrasco has allowed a slugging rate of .609 on pitches inside the strike zone this season, which is the second-highest mark among pitchers to throw over 25 innings. If the Jays’ can avoid making cheap outs on pitches outside the zone, they should be able to create lots of hard contact.

The Guardians offense owns a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days, with a .758 OPS. They have hit to a 122 wRC+ on the road in that span, with a .770 OPS. They have some meaningful injuries to their pitching staff but feature no absences from the lineup elsewhere.

Star third baseman Jose Ramirez won’t be available for the Guardians on Saturday as he’s on the paternity list.

The Blue Jays continue to find far more success versus right-handed pitching than versus left-handed pitching. They own a 10th-best wRC+ of 107 versus right-handed pitching over the last month, with an OPS of .717. They have struck out only 17% of the time versus RHP in that span, which is second-best in MLB.

The Blue Jays own a -15.8 wFB (weighted fastball runs above average rating this season). Carrasco will throw a lot of fastballs, but they have been far from effective versus any opponent this season.

Trevor Richards has pitched to a 3.07 xERA this season and owns a 4.39 xFIP. He’s gone three innings in similar spot starts this season, and John Schneider will likely be looking for him to get through the Guardians order a single time if possible today. We will likely see some combination of Nate Pearson, Chad Green, and Yimi Garcia immediately following Richards, but Brendon Little may be the only arm who is actually unavailable.

Even a bullpen day starting with Trevor Richards offers the Blue Jays a significant pitching edge in this game. Particularly as their current top high-leverage options should all be available.

Carlos Carrasco is well on his way to a second consecutive season with an ERA well past 5.00. He features very little velocity at this point in his career, and a soft throwing righty is one of the few types of pitchers that suits the Blue Jays’ strengths at the plate right now. Look for Toronto’s strong plate discipline to lead to success versus Carrasco.

It’s surprising to say that on a bullpen day, a 33-36 Jays side deserves to be a larger favourite over the Guardians, who are 44-23, but that is the case here with Carrasco starting. Bet the Jays at -125 or better.