The Philadelphia Phillies’ high-quality pitching staff was able to keep the red-hot Toronto Blue Jays in check over the weekend, as the Blue Jays scored only six runs throughout the three-game sweep. Despite their disappointing performance in Philadelphia, Toronto is still 22-13 over the last 35 games, which has propelled it into a Wild Card playoff spot.
The Blue Jays will hope to fare better offensively when they host the Arizona Diamondbacks for a three-game set starting tonight, and are slight betting favorites with Brandon Pfaadt (5.50 ERA, 70 and 1/3 IP) set to take on Chris Bassitt (3.70 ERA, 80 and 1/3 IP) in the series opener.
Let’s take a look at the game odds for Tuesday’s clash between the Blue Jays and Cardinals, courtesy of bet365.

Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays odds

Diamondbacks moneyline odds
+105
Blue Jays moneyline odds
-125
Runline odds
Diamondbacks +1.5 (-205), Blue Jays -1.5 (+170)
Game total
Over 8.5 runs (+100), Under 8.5 runs (-120)
Date/time
June 17, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Diamondbacks (36-35 SU, 34-36 ATS, 34-33-3 o/u)

Based on consensus betting odds, the Diamondbacks held a 50-50 chance of being a playoff team entering the season, playing out of a highly competitive NL West division. They have moved above the .500 mark with wins in five of their last six games, but are still three games back of the final Wildcard berth.
Pitching has been the Diamondbacks’ greatest weakness, as they currently rank 25th in ERA and 24th in FIP. The starting rotation was expected to improve year-over-year due to the signing of Corbin Burnes and the potential improvement from starters such as Pfaadt, but it has not played out that way to this point.
Pfaadt’s stuff graded out quite well in his first two seasons in the big leagues, as evidenced by Pitching+ ratings of 107 and 108, but he underperformed expectations where it counted with a 5.72 ERA in 2023 and a 4.71 ERA in 2024.
Pfaadt has continued to struggle where it counts this season with a 5.50 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, and most of his underlying numbers have gotten significantly worse. He holds an xERA of 7.22, an xFIP of 4.13, and a career-worst K-BB% of 11.9. His pitch metrics are also down compared to last season, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 97 and a Pitching+ rating of 98.
The Diamondbacks were one of the most productive teams in the league in 2024, ranking third in wRC+ and first in runs scored per game. Their lineup has remained highly productive in 2025, currently ranking third in wRC+ and fourth in runs scored per game.
Arizona currently has no position players on the IL and will provide Bassitt with a difficult test in this matchup. It holds the best slugging rate in baseball versus right-handed pitching and a second-ranked wRC+ of 123. It also ranks fifth in hard-hit rate versus righties and fifth in BB/K ratio.

About the Blue Jays (38-33 SU, 42-29 ATS, 37-32-2 o/u)

After a painful start to the season in which the Blue Jays once again struggled mightily to hit with runners in scoring position, they have turned the corner offensively and offered a much more watchable style of play. During its 22-13 tear, Toronto ranks fourth in baseball with a wRC+ of 118, and holds an OPS of .769.
The Blue Jays have struck out less than any other team in that span and are seventh in hard-hit rate. But what has been most enjoyable is that we don’t have to point to the numbers that suggest a strong process anymore to attempt to defend Toronto’s offensive play, as it has generated five runs per-game in that span.
Daulton Varsho, Anthony Santander, and Nathan Lukes will remain sidelined in this series, but those losses have been well accounted for by guys like Addison Barger and Ernie Clement. Santander was hitting just .179 prior to his injury, and it’s unfortunate to say it, but not having him batting in the heart of the order recently has proven beneficial for the team.
Bassitt has continued to mix up his deep arsenal of pitches effectively this season and enters this matchup with a 3.57 xERA and 3.52 xFIP. His form has dropped off a little recently however, as he holds an ERA of 4.66 and an xFIP of 4.12 in his last five starts. He also owns a Stuff+ rating of 97 and a Pitching+ rating of 98 in those outings.

Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays betting trends

  • The Blue Jays are 9-1 in their last ten home games.
  • The Diamondbacks are 4-8 in their last 12 road games games.
  • Toronto is the best team in the majors on the runline this season (42-29 ATS).
  • The over is 7-2-1 in Toronto’s last ten games.
  • The over is 6-3-0 in Arizona’s last ten games.

Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays best bets

  • Game Total Over 9 Runs: +102 for 1/2 unit (best odds @ Pinnacle). Pfaadt has been one of the worst full-time starters in MLB this season, and his underlying metrics suggest he is pitching at a considerably worse level than last year, in which he still struggled to a 4.71 ERA. Aside from their hiccup over the weekend versus an elite Phillies pitching staff, the Blue Jays have been in excellent form offensively recently, and should be able to manage plenty of hard contact in this matchup.
Bassitt’s level has dropped off to some extent throughout his last five outings, and the Diamondbacks provide one of the most difficult lineups in baseball for a right-handed starter to keep in check. Rogers Centre has also been the sixth most favourable ballpark in MLB for run creation this season. Both teams have a good chance of contributing to the total, and at +102 there looks to be value backing the over.
  • Both Teams to Score 3 Runs: -140 for 1/2 unit (best odds @ Bet365). As noted above, this looks like a particularly strong spot to target both teams’ contributing to the total, and there looks to be value backing both teams to score at least three runs at -140.