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MLB betting preview (June 30): Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions
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Photo credit: © Eric Canha-Imagn Images
Nicholas Martin
Jun 30, 2025, 14:22 EDT
The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays will begin an important four-game series Monday when Carlos Rodon (2.92 ERA, 101 and 2/3 IP) takes on Max Scherzer (5.63 ERA, 8 IP). The Yankees enter the series with a three-game lead over the Blue Jays in the race for the AL East title.
Let’s take a look at the game odds for Monday’s clash between the Yankees and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds

Yankees moneyline odds
-140
Blue Jays moneyline odds
+120
Runline odds
Yankees -1.5 (+115), Blue Jays +1.5 (-135)
Game total
Over 8.5 runs (-105), Under 8.5 runs (-115)
Date/time
June 30, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Yankees (48-35 SU, 40-43 ATS, 31-50-2 o/u)

FanGraphs currently projects the Yankees to win the division title 68% of the time, while Bet365 expects the Yankees to win the division 72.9% of the time based on their current price. New York has played to a record of 13-14 over the last month, which has allowed the Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays to gain some ground.
This series has lined up well for the Yankees from a pitching perspective, with Rodon set to start Monday’s matchup and Max Fried lined up for tomorrow’s Canada Day matinee.
Rodon is in the midst of his best season since 2022, as he has pitched to a 2.92 ERA and 2.86 xERA. He also holds a 3.35 xFIP, and a 21.2% strikeout minus walk rate. His Stuff+ rating of 104 is down compared to last season (111). Rodon has been in a slightly less dominant stretch of play, as in his last five starts, he holds a 3.72 ERA and 3.99 xFIP. His strikeout rate has dipped to 25% in that span, and his Pitching+ rating of 100 is also below his average over the entirety of the season. He has not yet started against the Blue Jays this season.
The Yankees still have several useful arms on the IL, but Oswaldo Cabrera is currently their only position player likely to be unavailable for this matchup due to injury.
New York has not been as dominant offensively over the last month of play, as it ranks 14th with a wRC+ of 104 and 16th in slugging percentage. It’s struck out at the seventh-highest rate in baseball during that span and ranks 12th in hard-hit rate.
The Yankees hold a wRC+ of 123 versus left-handed pitching this season, which is the second-best mark in MLB, but have been slightly less dominant versus righties with a wRC+ of 119.

About the Blue Jays (45-38 SU, 49-34 ATS, 44-37-2 o/u)

With the back end of the rotation currently looking like the Blue Jays’ greatest weakness, GM Ross Atkins will likely be keen to add another arm before the trade deadline, given his side’s strong push for a playoff berth over the last two months. There is a reasonable possibility that Scherzer can offer solid results at the back end of the rotation, but it’s far from a certainty given his age and recent string of injuries.
Scherzer will be making his second start since returning from a thumb injury in this matchup. His average fastball velocity jumped back up to 93.2 in his start versus the Cleveland Guardians last Wednesday, and he was able to hang around for five innings while allowing three earned runs and six hits. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 96 and a Pitching+ rating of 108 this season, which suggests league-average results are still realistic. Scherzer made nine starts in 2024 and finished with a 3.95 ERA and 3.86 xERA.
The Blue Jays have not had an off-day since last Monday, and the bullpen is currently not in great shape after starters Chris Bassitt and Eric Lauer combined for just six and 1/3 innings over the last two matchups. Jeff Hoffman, Chad Green and Brendon Little are the team’s most rested relievers and will likely factor into this matchup.
In most key defensive statistics, Toronto has remained one of the best defensive teams in baseball this season despite Daulton Varsho playing in only 24 matchups. It currently ranks third in Outs Above Average, while Alejandro Kirk grades out as the most effective framer in MLB behind the plate.
The Blue Jays have been in strong form offensively with a wRC+ of 111 over the last month of play. It’s struck out just 15% of the time in that span, which is the lowest mark in MLB by a margin, and holds the third-best BB/K ratio.
The Blue Jays have been hard on left-handed pitchers this season, as they currently hold the sixth-best wRC+ in the league and have struck out only 18.1% of the time versus lefties.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays betting trends

  • The Blue Jays are 24-23 when playing as an underdog this season.
  • The Blue Jays are 11-4 in their last 15 home games.
  • The Over is 1-9 in the Yankees’ last ten games.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

  • Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts: -110 for one unit (best odds @ Bet365). Rodon’s strikeout rate has dropped to 25% in his last five starts, and he has recorded over 5.5 K’s in two of those outings. His hard-hit rate of 43% and xFIP of 3.99 are both down compared to the rest of the season, and his Stuff+ rating also suggests his level is regressing.
The Blue Jays have displayed excellent plate discipline over the last month, striking out at a lower rate than any other team. They have not struck out much versus lefties either this season. They also rank second in batting average versus lefties this season, and should have a good chance of hitting for average versus Rodon.
The Blue Jays provide a tough matchup for Rodon to rack up strikeouts, and Rodon has not been as dominant recently as he was earlier in the campaign. At -110, there looks to be value backing Rodon to record fewer than six strikeouts, and I would bet it down to -120.

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