MLB betting preview (May 16): Tigers vs. Blue Jays predictions

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Bowden Francis (44) pitches to the Cleveland Guardians during the third inning at Rogers Centre.

Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

May 16, 2025, 11:52 EDTUpdated: May 16, 2025, 12:03 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will open a three-game series against the Detroit Tigers on Friday night at Rogers Centre.

Toronto dropped two of three to the Tampa Bay Rays at home earlier this week to fall one game below .500 entering this tough series with the Tigers.

Detroit, which is coming off a three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox, is tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best record in baseball (29-15).

This will be the first meeting of the season between these two teams.

Let’s take a look at the game odds for Friday’s series opener between the Red Sox and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365.

Tigers vs. Blue Jays odds

Tigers moneyline odds	-115
Blue Jays moneyline odds	-105
Runline odds	Tigers -1.5 (+140), Blue Jays +1.5 (-165)
Game total	Over 8.5 runs (-105), Under 8.5 (-115)
Date/Time	May 16, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Tigers (29-15 SU, 26-18 ATS, 23-18-3 o/u)

Who had the Tigers with the best record in baseball through nearly 45 games on their bingo cards? They opened the season with long World Series odds around +4000, but you’ll now see them around +1500 depending on the online sportsbook after their hot start.

The Tigers are firing on all cylinders right now, scoring 5.55 runs per game (third in MLB) while holding the opposition to 3.59 runs per game (seventh in baseball). They rank in the top 10 in baseball in team batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and home runs, but the best part is that the offence is evenly spread throughout the lineup, making them even more dangerous.

Javier Baez is enjoying a resurgent season after several miserable campaigns, slashing .309/.346/.496 with five homers and 27 RBIs through 35 contests. Fellow infielder Gleyber Torres is also swinging it well, boasting an .812 OPS after a down year with the New York Yankees.

About the Blue Jays (21-22 SU, 26-17 ATS, 22-21 o/u)

Toronto’s pitching staff coughed up 20 runs to the soft-hitting Rays over three games earlier this week, as the group continues to slide with a combined 4.40 ERA (eighth-worst in the majors) after a strong start to the campaign. Toronto’s pitchers have surrendered 64 home runs this season, with only the Baltimore Orioles allowing more (65). Exactly 44 of those home runs allowed have been at the Rogers Centre, which is concerning because the hot and humid weather in Southern Ontario hasn’t even hit yet, which historically leads to a spike in home runs at the venue throughout the summer months as more games are played with the retractable roof open.

Offensively, the team has failed to achieve any consistency to this point, with many prolonged slumps followed by clusters of offensive fireworks. Toronto is averaging 3.98 runs per game (22nd in the majors), which puts it behind last year’s pace (4.14 runs per game). One encouraging sign, though, is that the Jays have belted 11 homers over the last seven days, the second-most long balls in the majors in that span.

The good news for the Blue Jays is that they’ll avoid reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal in this series, as he pitched Wednesday against the Red Sox.

Probable starting pitchers

Detroit: RHP Jack Flaherty (1-5, 4.61 ERA, 10.98 K/9)

Flaherty lasted just three innings last time out against the Texas Rangers, allowing four home runs and five runs total while striking out four. It was the third consecutive start he’s allowed four earned runs or more. He’s especially struggled on the road this season, going 0-3 with a 5.57 ERA while allowing opponents to hit a lofty .272 against him. Flaherty’s fastball, which is averaging 0.5 mph less than last season at 92.8 mph, is getting rocked this year, with opposing batters hitting .309 off the pitch with a .342 xBA. The veteran righty has only made two previous starts at Rogers Centre, and he’s pitched well there, posting a 2-0 record with a 2.31 ERA.

Toronto: RHP Bowden Francis (2-5, 5.40 ERA, 6.48 K/9)

It’s been a tough year for Francis after he wowed everyone in the majors with an impressive close to the 2024 campaign. He’s allowed three earned runs or more in each of his last four starts and five of his last six, and his numbers in four starts at Rogers Centre this season are outright ugly: 6.52 ERA, eight home runs allowed, and a .280 opponents’ batting average. He ranks in just the fifth percentile in xERA (6.25) and xBA (.311), and his hard-hit percentage is over 50%, which also ranks in the fifth percentile in the majors. Right-handed batters are feasting on him this season, slashing .308/.348/.492.

Notable injuries

Pitchers Jose Urquidy (Tommy John), Alex Lange (lat), Alex Cobb (hip), Jason Foley (shoulder), and Casey Mize (hamstring) are on the injured list for the Tigers. Outfielders Parker Meadows (arm), Matt Vierling (shoulder) are also on the shelf.

Pitchers Ryan Burr (shoulder), Erik Swanson (forearm), Nick Sandlin (lat), and Max Scherzer (thumb) are all on the injured list for the Blue Jays. Infielder Andres Gimenez (quad) is also on the IL.

Weather

The roof should be open at Rogers Centre for a second consecutive game, as forecasts are calling for temperatures around 22 C under clear skies. Winds will blow from left field to right field at 9 mph.

Tigers vs. Blue Jays betting trends

The Tigers are 5-1 SU in the past six meetings.
The over is 4-0 in the past four meetings between the teams.
The over is 15-7 in Detroit’s 22 road games this season.
The over is 10-1 in Toronto’s last 11 games.

Tigers vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

Francis has allowed six hits or more in four straight starts while averaging seven per game during that span and is -125 to allow over 5.5 hits on Friday. He’s also surrendered over 2.5 earned runs in those four starts and is 150 to be tagged for over 2.5 earned runs.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit safely in four straight games and 17 of his last 20. He’s a steep -270 to get a hit against the Tigers.
Riley Greene has driven in at least one run in three straight games and four of his last five. He’s +155 to record over 0.5 RBIs on Friday.

Tigers vs. Blue Jays best bet

Tigers team total over 4.5 runs: +105 for one unit (best odds at Sports Interaction). The Tigers are averaging 10 runs per game over their last three contests, 5.82 per game on the road this season, and 5.55 per game overall this year. Toronto is allowing an average of 4.6 runs per game overall this season, but that number jumps up to 5.05 per game at the Rogers Centre. I’ll take this bet at plus money for the Tigers to at least plate five runs in this spot, especially with a struggling Francis on the mound for Toronto. The over 8.5 runs on the overall game total may also be worth a look here given the weak starting pitching matchup and the ideal weather conditions for some offence.