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MLB betting preview (May 20): Padres vs. Blue Jays predictions

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease (84) delivers during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Petco Park

Photo credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

By Greg Warren

May 20, 2025, 11:24 EDT

After a day off on Monday, the Toronto Blue Jays will be back in action Tuesday when they open a three-game interleague series with the San Diego Padres at Rogers Centre.

This will be the seventh game of a nine-game homestand for the Blue Jays, who are 2-4 during this stretch after series losses to the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays.

The Padres are also in a bit of a slump as losers of three straight games and five of their last seven. They were swept at home by the Seattle Mariners over the weekend.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Tuesday’s series opener between the Padres and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

Padres vs. Blue Jays odds

Padres moneyline odds	-125
Blue Jays moneyline odds	+105
Runline odds	Padres -1.5 (+130), Blue Jays +1.5 (-155)
Game total	Over 8 runs (-115), Under 8 (-105)
Date/Time	May 20, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Padres (27-18 SU, 26-19 ATS, 19-25-1 o/u)

The Padres put up just three runs over the weekend against the Mariners, who were missing three of their top starting pitchers due to injury. More troubling, though, is that San Diego went a dreadful 0-for-21 with runners in scoring position in the series. Overall, the Padres have been producing just fine at the plate, averaging 4.4 runs per game (12th in the majors) while boasting a .261 team batting average (third in baseball) this season. Their current offensive woes might not last much longer.

San Diego’s real strength is in the pitching department. Padres pitchers have allowed an average of 3.6 runs per game (fifth in the majors) while holding opponents to a .218 batting average (third in MLB). Their relievers are also effective, boasting a 3.20 bullpen ERA (sixth in MLB) while holding opponents to a .206 batting average (fourth in baseball).

About the Blue Jays (22-24 SU, 28-18 ATS, 22-23-1 o/u)

It looked like the Blue Jays may have been turning a corner offensively a few weeks ago when they scored six or more runs in five consecutive games from May 8-13, but the team has managed four or less in each of its last five games. There’s been no consistency at the plate from the Blue Jays this season, as the team ranks 23rd in the majors with an average of 3.89 runs per game. They’ve managed a slightly higher average at Rogers Centre, though, at 4.12 runs per game.

Toronto isn’t pitching well either, as its 4.31 staff ERA ranks 23rd in baseball. Only the Baltimore Orioles (72) have coughed up more home runs than Toronto’s 68. And 48 of those 68 home runs allowed have been at Rogers Centre, so backing opposing players to go deep consistently against the Blue Jays at their home venue has been a profitable strategy to this point.

Anthony Santander has been struggling for Toronto, prompting manager John Schneider to drop him from third to fifth in the batting order. He’s slashing just .182/.264/.308 through 41 games, one year removed from smashing 44 home runs and recording 102 RBIs for the Baltimore Orioles.

Probable starting pitchers

San Diego: RHP Dylan Cease (1-2, 4.60 ERA, 11.11 K/9)

Don’t let Cease’s record and ERA fool you; he’s one of the best pitchers in the league. One bad start against the Athletics in April (9 ER allowed over four innings) is still bloating his overall numbers, but he’s allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He has a 3.69 xERA with an elite whiff rate (32.8%, 91st percentile) and K-rate (28.6%, 82nd percentile). It should be noted that he’s struggled on the road this season, though, allowing 14 earned runs over 19 2/3 innings (6.41 ERA).

Toronto: RHP Chris Bassitt (3-2, 3.16 ERA, 9.64 K/9) – unconfirmed but probable starter at time of writing

Bassitt is in the midst of a great season in a contract year. He held the Rays to one run on seven hits while striking out six the last time he took the hill, ending a stretch of four mediocre starts after a spectacular start to the campaign. Bassitt has been particularly effective at Rogers Centre, posting a 2.05 ERA across four home starts, although teams are hitting .281 off him in those games. The veteran righty has done an excellent job of bending but not breaking this season, as he continues to mix all eight of his pitches to confuse opposing batters.

Notable injuries

The Padres are a little thin in the starting pitching department, with both Joe Musgrove (elbow) and Yu Darvish (elbow) on the injured list.

Pitchers Ryan Burr (shoulder), Erik Swanson (forearm), Nick Sandlin (lat), and Max Scherzer (thumb) are all on the injured list for the Blue Jays. Infielder Andres Gimenez (quad) is also on the IL.

Weather

Forecasts are projecting cool temperatures around 11 C this evening in Toronto, so the retractable dome at Rogers Centre will very likely be closed.

Padres vs. Blue Jays betting trends

The under is 4-0 in San Diego’s last four games.
The over is 10-3-1 in Toronto’s last 14 games.
The Blue Jays are 28-18 on the runline this season (best in the majors).

Padres vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

Cease has struck out six or more batters in five of his last six starts and in seven of his nine outings this season, averaging 6.4 per game this season. He’s -110 to record over 5.5 strikeouts.
Daulton Varsho has hit safely in five straight games and is -135 to get a hit on Tuesday.
Bo Bichette will take a four-game hitting streak into action against the Padres. He’s hit safely in 33 of his 46 games (72%) this season and is a steep -255 to record at least one hit.
Xander Bogaerts is 5-for-9 (.566 average, 1.444 OPS) in his career with a home run against Bassitt.

Padres vs. Blue Jays best bet

Cease over 5.5 strikeouts: -105 for one unit (best odds at bet365). Cease struck out 10 batters in his last outing against the Los Angeles Angels and nine in his start before that against the New York Yankees, so he’s in great form right now. The Blue Jays have struck out the third least in baseball with 343 total (7.4 per game), but the hard-throwing righty should be able to pitch deep into this game against Toronto’s soft bats and record at least one strikeout per inning. As previously stated, he’s beaten this mark in seven of his nine outings this year, so we’re getting excellent value at -105 odds in this spot.