MLB betting preview (May 23): Blue Jays vs. Rays odds

Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette (11) takes the throw from the plate before tagging out Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Chandler Simpson (14) who was trying to steal second base in the third inning at Rogers Centre.

Photo credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

May 23, 2025, 10:57 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will be vying for a fourth straight win when they open a series with the Tampa Bay Rays at Steinbrenner Field on Friday night.

Toronto completed a three-game sweep of the San Diego Padres on Thursday at Rogers Centre with a 7-6 win in 11 innings. The Blue Jays took a 4-2 lead into the ninth inning, but closer Jeff Hoffman coughed up a two-run blast for his third blown save of the season. Luckily, the Blue Jays rebounded from the setback with Nathan Lukes hitting a game-winning single in the 11th inning.

The Rays took two of three from the Houston Astros earlier this week before enjoying Thursday off. Their bullpen will be much fresher than Toronto’s unit, which used seven pitchers in Thursday’s extra-innings win.

Let’s take a look at the game odds for Friday’s series opener between the Blue Jays and Rays courtesy of bet365.

Blue Jays moneyline odds	+115
Rays moneyline odds	-135
Runline odds	Rays -1.5 (+145), Blue Jays +1.5 (-170)
Game total	Over 9 runs (-110), Under 9 (-110)
Date/Time	May 23, 7:05 p.m. ET

About the Blue Jays (25-24 SU, 31-18 ATS, 24-24-1 o/u)

With wins in four of their last five games, the Blue Jays find themselves one game above .500 heading into this six-game road trip that will conclude in Texas early next week. They find themselves five games back of the New York Yankees for the AL East lead and just two games out of a wild-card spot entering this series.

The Blue Jays are averaging 5.8 runs per game over their last 13 contests, which is much higher than their 4.14 runs per game season average. They’re slashing .277/.347/.458 with an .805 OPS during that span, which is an encouraging sign after a very slow start collectively at the dish.

Closing out games has been an issue for Toronto, as it has converted just 15 of its 25 save opportunities, collectively. Hoffman owns an ugly 16.71 ERA this month, and opponents are hitting a lofty .364 off of him in May.

About the Rays (23-26 SU, 22-27 ATS, 19-28-2 o/u)

The Rays haven’t been playing well at Steinbrenner Field, their temporary home after Tropicana Field was heavily damaged by a hurricane. They’re just 13-18 straight up and 12-19 on the runline at the outdoor venue, which is a major reason why the team is below .500 with just a week remaining in May.

This team has struggled offensively to this point, averaging just 3.9 runs per game (24th in the majors), and its pitching staff has coughed up 70 home runs, tied for the second-worst mark in the majors with the Athletics. Only the Baltimore Orioles (76) have allowed more long balls.

Tampa took two of three from the Jays at Rogers Centre earlier this month, with all three games playing over the game total.

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: LHP Eric Lauer (1-0, 2.25 ERA, 10.50 K/9)

Lauer will be making just his second start of the season and just his fifth appearance overall, but he’s been impressive in limited action. He pitched just three innings in his only previous start against the Detroit Tigers last week, holding them to one run on three hits. He hasn’t thrown more than 77 pitches in an outing this season, so don’t expect him to pitch deep into this ballgame.

Tampa Bay: RHP Drew Rasmussen (2-4, 2.93 ERA, 7.83 K/9)

Rasmussen has been very consistent for the Rays, allowing four earned runs or fewer in all nine of his starts this season. He’s coming off six scoreless innings against the Miami Marlins, and he didn’t pitch in Tampa’s previous three-game series with the Blue Jays. The righty throws a hard fastball (averages 95.5 mph) and sinker, and he ranks in the 98th percentile in fastball run value (+10). He also excels at keeping the ball on the ground, as evidenced by his 50.3% ground-ball rate, which ranks in the 81st percentile in MLB.

Notable injuries

The Rays will be without staff ace Shane McClanahan (triceps), shortstop Ha-Seong Kim (shoulder), outfielder Eloy Jimenez (Achilles), outfielder Travis Jankowski (groin), and outfielder Jake Mangum (groin). Shortstop Taylor Walls (groin) is day-to-day.

Pitchers Ryan Burr (shoulder), Erik Swanson (forearm), Nick Sandlin (lat), and Max Scherzer (thumb) are all on the injured list for the Blue Jays. Infielder Andres Gimenez (quad) is also on the IL. Anthony Santander (hip) is a game-time decision.

Weather

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 30 C under sunny skies on Friday evening in Tampa. Winds will blow from left field to right field at 6 mph.

MLB betting trends

The Rays are just 13-18 SU and 12-19 ATS at Steinbrenner Field this season.
The under is 4-1 in Tampa’s last five games.
The Blue Jays are the best team on the runline in the majors (31-18 ATS).

Blue Jays vs. Rays player prop trends

Rasmussen hasn’t pitched deep into ballgames this season, recording over 15.5 outs in just two of his nine starts (22%). He’s -145 to record under 15.5 outs on Friday.
Brandon Lowe will carry a five-game hitting streak into action Friday and is -155 to get a hit. He’s hitting .538 in 13 at-bats against Toronto this season with two homers.
Chandler Simpson has stolen a base in four consecutive games for the Rays and is +175 to steal another on Friday. He ranks in the 99th percentile in baserunning sprint speed, averaging 29.9 feet per second.

Blue Jays vs. Rays best bet

Rays moneyline: -135 for one unit (best odds @ Pinnacle). Both of these teams are in good form right now, but fatigue will certainly play a factor in this game from a pitching perspective for Toronto, which really needs Lauer to eat some significant innings in this spot with a gassed bullpen. The sunny and hot weather conditions should favour the hitters in this matchup, and bettors should remember that Steinbrenner Field has the exact same dimensions as hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Lauer hasn’t thrown more than 77 pitches in an outing this season, so it might be a tall task for him to throw more than four innings before turning the ball over to the bullpen. The Rays are rested and ready for this series opener and should draw first blood with a proven starter like Rasmussen taking the ball and a fresh bullpen.