The 2025 World Series culminates in a winner-take-all Game 7 on Saturday at Rogers Centre, after the Los Angeles Dodgers held on for a 3-1 win in a closely contested Game 6 Friday evening.

The Blue Jays would be right to feel a little unlucky that the series is now tied, but they are once again fairly heavy underdogs in Game 7 as they look to avoid a heartbreaking ending to what has been a magical season.

As has been the case in the majority of matchups in this series, the Dodgers hold a starting pitching advantage on paper, which is the main reason for their -150 price tag on the moneyline. Two future Hall-of-Famers will take the mound, as Shohei Ohtani will start for the Dodgers, while the Blue Jays will turn to Max Scherzer, who actually started in the last World Series Game 7 for the Washington Nationals.

The Dodgers were able to keep their season alive Friday thanks to another spectacular performance from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as well as one timely string of hits in the third inning. While they got the job done, it was another fairly unconvincing offensive performance, as they recorded only four hits and struck out 12 times.

If not for Mookie Betts’s two-RBI single in the third inning, the superstars from the Dodgers’ high-powered lineup would be tasked with answering plenty of questions regarding why they were unable to produce in this series, but because they managed to win Friday’s matchup, those questions will be spared, at least for one day.

The Dodgers have batted just .191 in the series but, in winning both of the two matchups that could easily have gone either way, have been able to hang in versus a Blue Jays side that has threatened much more consistently at the plate.

Some people will say winners win, losers make excuses, and all of that. There is some merit to those points, but baseball is highly volatile, and it’s hard to dispute that the Blue Jays’ offensive process in this series would, on average, produce a better result than the Dodgers’.

While the majority of underlying metrics and surface-level stats (runs scored, hits, OPS) state the Blue Jays lineup has been the superior unit in this series, Toronto will face an uphill task in needing to outperform the Dodgers in a match-up pitting Ohtani versus Scherzer.

Ohtani had pitched quite well entering the playoffs, as he held an ERA of 3.09 and an xFIP of 1.51 in 32 innings since the start of August. He’s remained in solid form throughout the postseason, pitching to an ERA of 3.50 across 18 innings of work, with an excellent 2.19 xERA and 2.54 xFIP.

As has been the case for essentially every elite pitcher not named Yamamoto this postseason, Ohtani did struggle in his Game 3 start versus the Blue Jays, allowing four earned runs in six innings of work. The Blue Jays managed a 50% hard-hit rate off Ohtani in that matchup and put eight balls in play with exit velocities of 99 mph or higher.

It will be all hands on deck for the Dodgers from a pitching perspective in this matchup, but luckily for the Jays, that would still mean it is extremely unlikely they are tasked with facing Yamamoto once again. Oddsmakers have set Ohtani’s total outs line at just 9.5, as it’s likely that Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and the Dodgers’ top high-leverage arms will all see usage in this matchup barring a very smooth outing from Ohtani.

A two-run rally in the bottom of the ninth would have been a perfectly fitting way for this Blue Jays team to cap off a World Series title, as the team led the league in comeback wins this season and has had a knack for dramatic rallies. It was not to be, however, as Kike Hernandez got a good jump on a fairly well-hit ball by Andres Gimenez, a ball that held an expected batting average of .710, before the Dodgers doubled off Addison Barger at second base.

At this point in the year, it’s hard to point to a solid process to feel better about losing results, but considering Yamamoto’s level of dominance this postseason, Toronto’s Game 6 performance should not shake the team’s confidence offensively.  Hit sequencing was an issue for the Blue Jays, as they failed to break through at the plate with runners in scoring position, though they did put some well-hit balls in play in critical moments.

John Schneider and hitting coach David Popkins will likely urge their lineup to stick with the process that has gotten them to this point ahead of this matchup and continue to grind out lengthy at-bats and take what is given offensively. The Blue Jays hold the highest expected weighted on-base average among all postseason teams by a wide margin and also hold the lowest strikeout rate, and those strengths were on display in their last matchup versus Ohtani.

Though the Dodgers’ stacked lineup truly has not been overly effective in this series, that obviously has much to do with how well the Jays have pitched as a team, and Scherzer obviously has no easy task in keeping the Dodgers’ bats quiet in this matchup, particularly as they get their second look of the series at the veteran righty.

Scherzer allowed four hits and three earned runs across 4 1/3 innings of work versus the Dodgers in Game 3, as well as an xBA of .246. His underlying metrics this postseason are concerning, as he has pitched to an xFIP of 5.66 and holds a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 7.5%.

Like Ohtani, Scherzer also features a betting line of just 9.5 outs in this matchup and will likely only work once through the order in most game scripts. Shane Bieber will presumably be one of the arms tasked with handling the bulk of the game, while Trey Yesavage could potentially handle a few batters if needed.

The Blue Jays hit Ohtani well in Game 4 and have terrorized many of the game’s very best pitchers this postseason. While Ohtani certainly offers a significant edge over Scherzer, the Blue Jays’ abilities to grind out at-bats and hit for average could prove favourable in this Game 7 matchup, which could be somewhat of a war of attrition.

Though Scherzer is a much lesser pitcher than Ohtani at this point in his career, the upside of the Blue Jays’ lineup makes me believe that they are once again undervalued in this matchup. At +125, I see value in backing the Blue Jays to find a way Saturday in one of the most highly anticipated matchups in MLB history.

After missing on the Blue Jays and our small parlay Friday, these guides are up 6.95 units this season (23-19-1).