After stealing Game One of the series with arguably their worst starter on the mound and a heavily depleted bullpen, the Mariners now hold a 68% chance of earning a spot in the World Series based on Bet365’s current odds, after entering Game One at +120 to win the ALCS.

As expected, the Blue Jays are considerably smaller favourites in a Game Two matchup, which will feature Logan Gilbert (3.44 ERA, 131 IP) facing off against Trey Yesavage (3.21 ERA, 14 IP).

Let’s dive into the game odds for Sunday’s matchup between the Mariners and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

Before Game One of this series, Bryce Miller had completed six innings only once in his 19 starts this season. After allowing a home run on the first pitch of the game to George Springer, Miller required 27 pitches to work himself out of a jam in the first inning, aided by a 107.2 MPH lineout from Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Miller then flipped the script entirely, finding his way through five more innings with an extremely efficient outing in a matchup where the Mariners’ high-quality bullpen was not in good shape.

On paper, the Blue Jays will face a much tougher test in Game Two, as Logan Gilbert will start and will be followed by a more well-rested relief staff.

Gilbert will be pitching in a unique spot from a rest perspective, as he is six days removed from his last start but pitched two critical innings during Seattle’s 15-inning marathon win over the Tigers in Game Five of the ALDS. Friday would have been a throwing day for Gilbert anyway, so it’s certainly realistic to believe the 2024 All-Star will not show much fatigue in this matchup.

Gilbert held an ERA of 1.13 throughout his eight innings of work in the ALDS and struck out 10.13 batters per nine while registering an xFIP of 3.18.

The Mariners’ pitching staff poured in slider after slider versus the Tigers last round, who generally did not have any answers. Toronto can expect plenty of quality sliders from Gilbert in this matchup, as well as a high-quality four-seamer and a nasty splitter.

In his final ten regular-season appearances, Gilbert pitched to an ERA of 3.42 and an xFIP of 3.66. He struck out 27.9% of batters in that span and held a Pitching+ rating of 103.

As noted ahead of yesterday’s matchup, the Mariners feature a relief staff loaded with high-quality arms that, in combination, hold the highest Stuff+ rating of any postseason team. Toronto saw three of the Mariners’ top bullpen arms in yesterday’s matchup (Gabe Speier, Matt Brash, and Andres Munoz), who faced the minimum in their three combined innings of work.

While the Mariners were able to generate enough offence to win Game One versus an elite starter, their Game One performance still wasn’t entirely convincing for a lineup that has struggled this postseason. Seattle struck out 11 times and held an xBA of .226 in Game One.

As a team, the Mariners are batting just .206 this postseason and hold an OBP of .289. They have hit to a wRC+ of only 82 and a BB/K ratio of just 0.32.

While the Blue Jays’ fan base, roster, and front office will feel confident to have Trey Yesavage on the mound in this matchup, it is a gigantic amount of pressure to put on a 22-year-old who will be making just his fifth career start.

Yesavage handled the pressure of pitching in the postseason extremely well versus the New York Yankees, racking up 11 strikeouts in five and one-third innings of work while allowing zero hits and zero earned runs. Yesavage features an otherworldly splitter, as well as a quality four-seamer and slider, which all play up in effectiveness as he holds the highest release point of any starter in MLB.

Yesavage’s command can be hit-or-miss and will always be the main concern given the quality of his stuff. He’s walked 11.3% of batters at the MLB level this season and holds a Location+ rating of 93. Command was obviously not an issue for Yesavage in his last start, and hopefully that will remain true Monday.

Perhaps George Springer’s home run on the first pitch of the game didn’t help the Jays as much as it seemed, as the lineup looked entirely unfamiliar to the one we saw terrorize the Yankees’ pitching staff in the final eight innings of the game. In a game where the Blue Jays should have been highly motivated to work deep counts versus Miller, they made eight outs versus Miller in two pitches or less.

After straying away from their scrappy offensive process in Game One, the Blue Jays will need to regroup in a tough matchup versus Gilbert. Since July 1st, Toronto has held the highest wRC+ in baseball versus right-handed pitching and the second-highest BB/K ratio in that span.

Nathan Lukes showed plenty of toughness in attempting to play out Game 1 after a hard foul tip hit him in what appeared to be a very bad spot on the knee. Lukes status for this matchup is unclear, but it certainly seems doubtful that the 31-year-old will be able to play in this matchup.

Lukes absence would go as an underrated loss for a lineup that is already without a key bat in Bo Bichette, particularly versus a Mariners side with no left-handed starters. Lukes has become a fan favourite thanks to his ability to consistently grind out lengthy at-bats, holds an OPS of .733 versus righties, and is a high-quality defender in left field.

While I’m hopeful that the Blue Jays can get right offensively in this matchup after straying away from a successful process in Game One, a total of 7.5 runs seems to be a fairly high total given the pitching matchup and strength of Seattle’s bullpen.

The Mariners have done enough offensively to get by the postseason, but their overall effectiveness has still been quite concerning. They have struck out at a high rate, aren’t getting many men on, and have generated very few walks. If Yesavage can avoid letting the top of their lineup do any damage early on, he should be able to settle into this matchup and have another excellent outing.

Gilbert has slowly trended into better form since his flexor injury and was highly impressive in the ALDS versus the Tigers. The Blue Jays will present a difficult challenge, but Gilbert has the stuff to perform well versus a high-quality lineup and is aided by one of the best bullpens in baseball.

At -125 or better, I see value in backing this matchup to feature less than 7.5 runs.