After an ugly collapse late in Game 5 of the ALCS, the Toronto Blue Jays return home on the brink of elimination, trailing 3-2 in their best-of-seven series with the Seattle Mariners.

An optimistic viewpoint would suggest that taking two of three at T-Mobile Park was a success, but John Schneider’s controversial decision to bring in Brendon Little in the eighth inning while leading will be one of the lasting memories from this playoff run if Toronto cannot win the next two matchups.

The odds suggest Toronto’s chances of winning this series aren’t great. Teams entering Game 6 down a game in a best-of-seven series have come back to win the series just 21 of 67 (31.3%) times historically. The Blue Jays are betting favourites in Game 6, though, as Logan Gilbert will face off against Trey Yesavage.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Sunday’s matchup between the Mariners and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

The Mariners will get a second look at Yesavage on Sunday after managing five earned runs off him in a Game 2 that ultimately became a blowout. While the Mariners crushed Yesavage on paper, generating five earned runs, two of those came after Louis Varland failed to strand baserunners inherited by Yesavage, one of which was an intentional walk to Cal Raleigh.

The Mariners held an xBA of .216 in Game 1 versus Yesavage but capitalized after Yesavage came unraveled following a blown strike-three call in the first inning.

Including the runs charged to Yesavage in Game 2, Blue Jays starters hold an ERA of 4.00 in this series versus a Mariners lineup that holds a wRC+ of 100 and xwOBA of .320 this postseason and struck out 27.1% of the time.

The Blue Jays hit Logan Gilbert effectively in Game 2, as he allowed five hits and two earned runs in three innings of work and recorded just two strikeouts. Gilbert allowed an xBA of .295 and an actual batting average of .357.

In his final 10 regular-season appearances, Gilbert pitched to an ERA of 3.42 and held an xFIP of 3.66. His Stuff+ rating of 95 was down considerably relative to his career average, but he’s fared well this postseason overall, pitching to an ERA of 2.45, although that mark is carried by his results versus a Tigers lineup that was among the league’s worst versus right-handed pitching in the second half of the season.

The Mariners were projected to hold a significant bullpen edge entering this series, and that narrative has come to fruition. While the Blue Jays have been able to manage some offense versus Seattle’s bullpen, much of the damage has been done in spots where the game was already close to out of reach.

Seattle’s excellent quartet of high-leverage arms (Andres Munoz, Gabe Speier, Matt Brash, and Eduard Bazardo) feels drastically more stable than what Toronto can offer and was a key reason the Mariners were able to win Game 5.

One of the bigger matchups in the history of the Blue Jays franchise will go down as just the sixth start in Yesavage’s young career. That’s a ton of pressure to put on an inexperienced 22-year-old pitcher, but no fans that have truly followed Yesavage’s rise up to this moment will be surprised if he is able to perform.

Yesavage’s regular season ERA of 3.21 undersold his actual level of play, and his 4.82 ERA in 9 1/3 innings this postseason undersells his work by a large margin, and as noted, Yesavage getting hung with five earned runs in Game 2 wasn’t a fair take on his outing.

Yesavage has pitched to an xFIP of 3.21 this season and has struck out 31% of batters faced. If Yesavage were qualified, he would hold the highest strikeout rate of any starter in MLB. Command can be an issue at times, as we saw early on in Game 2, but at his best, Yesavage has the stuff to mow down batters at the MLB level.

After one of the most puzzling bullpen decisions in history, it will be interesting to see how long Schneider is willing to leave Yesavage in this matchup if he has a relatively smooth outing.

None of the underlying metrics suggest bringing in Little was a sharp move, and it’s very tough to defend the decision. The only slight defence that can be made is pointing out that most of the Blue Jays bullpen arms have not felt overly convincing dating back to the start of September, which probably factored into Schneider’s move.

If the Blue Jays had done a better job of capitalizing on their scoring opportunities in Game 5, the decision to bring in Little would not be such a massive talking point. Toronto went 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position in Game 5, including an ugly sequence in the top of the fifth inning in which it got nothing out of a bases-loaded, no-outs situation.

The Blue Jays’ overall body of work offensively this postseason remains quite excellent, though that will likely be forgotten if they can’t come through in the clutch in this matchup. Toronto holds a league-leading wRC+ of 142 this postseason and also leads the league in xwOBA. It has struck out just 14.1% of the time.

It’s unclear whether or not George Springer will play in this matchup after exiting Game 5 with a knee injury.

If Yesavage can get off to a smoother start in this outing, I’m confident that he will settle in and have a much better performance than we saw in Game 2. This seems to be a good spot to tap into his high upside, as he faces off against a Mariners lineup that struck out a lot this postseason in attempting to hit for power.

At -140, I see some value in backing Yesavage to record over 4.5 strikeouts, but given that this feels like a fairly volatile spot, I’m happy to tap into the potential of a smooth Yesavage outing and back him to record six strikeouts or more at +145. I also see value in smaller ladder wagers backing him to record eight or nine strikeouts, and target the possiblity of Yesavage having an outing that looks similar to what we saw in the ALDS versus the Yankees.