After a dramatic comeback win in Game 7 of the ALCS over the Seattle Mariners, the Toronto Blue Jays have made the World Series for the first time since 1993. While oddsmakers were low on the chances of Toronto reaching this point entering the season (+6600 to win the World Series), it finished as the AL’s number-one seed and is undoubtedly deserving of this opportunity.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ story is much less compelling, as baseball’s superteam entered the season priced at +350 to win the World Series and has simply lived up to its lofty expectations.

The Dodgers’ loaded pitching staff has led them into this series with little adversity this postseason, and the Blue Jays will face a tough test in the series opener when they square off against dominant lefty Blake Snell.

Toronto will counter with Trey Yesavage, who has made a meteoritic rise this season after making his first professional start in Single-A on April 8th.

A Game 1 pitching matchup pitting Snell, a proven veteran on a $182-million contract, against Yesavage is an effective synopsis of the David vs. Goliath nature of this entire series. Though the Blue Jays do hold some edges over the Dodgers, starting pitching certainly is not one of them, and the disparity between the two staffs is the greatest reason that Los Angeles is a -225 favorite to win the series.

Snell holds an ERA of 0.86 across 21 innings this postseason and has won each of his three starts. He holds a 1.77 xFIP in those outings and has struck out 12 batters per nine. Since returning from the IL on August 2nd, he holds a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 24% and a 2.42 xFIP. The Blue Jays did face Snell during that span and struck out 10 times while generating zero earned runs across five innings.

While the Dodgers will hold a starting pitching edge on paper in every single matchup of the series, they haven’t outperformed the Blue Jays offensively this postseason. Los Angeles holds a wRC+ of 110 this postseason, with an expected weighted on-base average of .355, and a much less convincing 0.38 BB/K ratio.

Both teams were comparably strong at fielding during the regular season, as the Dodgers ranked third in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and 12th in Outs Above Average, while the Blue Jays ranked fourth and ninth in those two metrics.

The Los Angeles bullpen was viewed as a concern entering the postseason, but that flaw has mainly been masked as its starters have consistently pitched deep into the majority of its matchups. Dodgers relievers have handled just 27 2/3 innings so far this postseason, while Toronto’s bullpen has already worked 45 2/3 innings, having played one more game.

It may prove highly beneficial if the Blue Jays are able to chase some of the Dodgers’ starters early on from matchups in this series, as Los Angeles’ bullpen has pitched to an ERA of 4.88 and an xFIP of 5.32 this postseason, which is the worst mark of any playoff team by a wide margin.

The long-standing baseball narrative that elite pitching wins out over elite hitting will be put to the test in this series, as while the Dodgers will exclusively send elite starters to the mound, the Blue Jays have had a historically strong offence this postseason based on most key metrics.

Blue Jays hitting coach David Popkins deserves a ton of credit for his club’s impressive year-over-year turnaround and for leading numerous batters to career-best seasons. The Blue Jays lineup has put an emphasis on getting balls in-play this season and has continually offered a strong approach from top to bottom. The approach is what’s most important to touch on, as while the Jays have struck out at a historically low rate, they are very capable of hitting for power when it’s there, as we have seen throughout the postseason.

No team had a lower K-rate than the Blue Jays this season, and in the playoffs they have further reduced their strikeout rate to 14.8%. In era-adjusted strikeout rate, the Blue Jays have had the second-best postseason in the history of baseball.

The Blue Jays rank first by a wide margin with a wRC+ of 143 this postseason and also lead the league in runs scored. While their process is based on making solid contact, they also lead the league with a slug rate of .523 and are tied with the Mariners in home runs hit this postseason with a total of 20.

The Blue Jays were much more effective versus right-handed starters following the All-Star break this season, but they did not fare very well versus high-quality lefties Max Fried and Carlos Rodon in the ALDS.

If Bo Bichette is able to return in top form in this series, it would offer Toronto a higher chance of success versus the Dodgers’ tough lefties. Bichette slugged .546 versus lefties this season with an OPS of .891.

Even when playing at full health, Bichette is a below-average fielder, so there are obviously concerns about placing him into an infield that has performed very well in his absence. As George Springer has confirmed that he is healthy enough to play the outfield, Bichette will likely take over the DH role.

In 15 innings of work this postseason, Yesavage has pitched to an ERA of 4.20 but holds a strong xFIP of 3.34 and has struck out 13.2 batters per nine, thanks in part to his ultra-high arm slot. The Dodgers will have done all they can to try and prepare for Yesavage’s unique release point in this matchup, and whether or not Yesavage’s stuff will remain as effective as the league familiarizes itself with his work remains to be seen.

The Blue Jays bullpen will obviously be well-rested entering this matchup, which suggests John Schneider will likely be keen to send Louis Varland to the mound following Yesavage, particularly in order to clean up a messy inning. If the Blue Jays are to find success in this series as heavy underdogs, they will likely need to trust a few more bullpen arms in key moments.

Mason Fluharty could be one arm deserving of a larger role, even if he holds a 6.23 ERA this postseason in a tiny sample of 4 1/3 innings. Fluharty entered the postseason with a 0.71 ERA in his final 12 1/3 innings of work and held a Stuff+ rating of 118 in those outings.

Fluharty’s gutty performance in Los Angeles on August 10th is a major reason why the Blue Jays have home-field advantage in this series. If they had lost that matchup, this series would be starting at Dodger Stadium.

The historical data suggests that the Blue Jays are in a good spot entering this series, as in the five postseasons where a team that swept the previous round played a team that went seven in the previous round, the team that went seven won each World Series.

By no means would I argue that trend is concrete evidence that suggests the Blue Jays will win this series. There could be some interesting logic behind it though, as perhaps the adversity of a narrowly fought victory is beneficial in the following round.

The Blue Jays have fewer paths to success than the Dodgers in this series, as it’s highly unlikely that Toronto can pull off the upset without its offence remaining in elite form. That’s certainly a concern, but it is not unrealistic to think the Blue Jays’ excellent offensive process can still lead to strong results versus the Dodgers’ elite pitching staff.

Snell has been in tremendous form, but the Blue Jays have proven capable of hitting elite pitching well this season thanks to their excellent process. The Dodgers bullpen has not been overly convincing, and if Toronto is able to hit Snell relatively well, I’m high on the chances that it can build on its offensive total in the later innings.

At +110, I see value in backing the Blue Jays to record over 3.5 total runs in this matchup, as we look to bounce back from a losing pick in Game 7 of the ALCS, which pushed the record of these guides to +6.5 units (20-15-1) this season.