After battling tooth and nail for the AL East title this season, it only feels right that the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays will square off in the ALDS in what will be the first-ever playoff series between the two rivals.

The Jays won eight of 13 meetings with the Yankees this season, which ultimately proved to be the difference in the division, as both teams finished with a record of 94-68.

The Blue Jays are priced as +125 underdogs to win the series, but are favoured in a Game 1, which will feature Luis Gil (3.29 ERA, 57 IP) facing off against Kevin Gausman (3.47 ERA, 189 1/3 IP).

Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s matchup between the Rays and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

There is no disputing that winning the division offers a meaningful advantage, as you avoid the potential of losing a highly volatile three-game series, keep all your top starters rested, and claim home-field advantage in the divisional series. Winning the Wild Card series can provide a good momentum boost, though, and offers a good chance for teams to fine-tune their game in high-pressure situations.

While the Yankees would certainly have been an even larger favourite in this series if Max Fried was starting Game 1 in New York, they could get a boost from coming through in two huge elimination games to knock off the rival Boston Red Sox.

The general perception in baseball over the past two seasons is that the Yankees are a fundamentally flawed team that does not field or run the bases overly well. The stats suggest that reputation is somewhat valid, at least relative to other postseason hopefuls. The Yankees rank 19th in fielding Outs Above Average this season and 13th in Defensive Runs Saved.

Baserunning is statistically New York’s greatest peripheral weakness, as it ranks 22nd in Baserunning Runs Above Average (BsR).

In early September, Blue Jays colour commentator Buck Martinez stated, “You know, the Yankees — they’re not a good team. I don’t care what their record is. They have a lot of wild pitches, they make a lot of mistakes in the field, they don’t run the bases very well. If they don’t hit home runs, they don’t have a chance to win.”

While Martinez’s comments may be true to some extent, the Yankees may have the offensive upside to succeed in this series even if they do make the odd mistake in the field or running the bases. The Yankees did make some costly mistakes in their Game 1 loss versus the Red Sox, but were sharp defensively in their do-or-die wins in the subsequent two games of the series.

The Yankees ranked first in wRC+ this season and also ranked first in slug rate. Relying on power-hitting can be concerning versus elite pitching in the postseason, but a Yankees side with a similar profile was able to make it to the World Series a year ago.

The Yankees also ranked first with a wRC+ versus left-handed pitching and tied for first with a wRC+ of 118 versus righties. There is some serious swing-and-miss in New York’s lineup, but that flaw was well compensated, as the Yankees hit for power better than any other team by a wide margin this season, including a league-leading output of 261 home runs.

Due to a high-grade lat strain, Luis Gil pitched only 57 innings during the regular season. After finishing the 2024 campaign with a 3.50 ERA across 151 2/3 IP, Gil was comparably effective in a small sample this season, pitching to an ERA of 3.32.

Gil’s underlying results were less convincing, as he held an xERA of 4.78 and an xFIP of 5.65. His Stuff+ rating also dropped to 100 compared to a mark of 106 in 2024, and his Pitching+ rating dropped below league average (96).

Following the trade deadline, New York’s bullpen was projected to be among the best in baseball but failed to live up to the hype, pitching to a 27th-ranked ERA of 4.88 over the last 30 days. The talent on the roster suggests that mark is a severe underachievement, and despite Luke Weaver blowing Game 1 versus the Red Sox, the Yankee bullpen did pitch well in the Wild Card round.

Aside from a lethargic final month of the season, the Blue Jays were one of the best teams offensively in baseball this season but achieved strong results while following a much different process than the opposing Yankees. Toronto offered the best plate discipline in the league, leaning on strong at-bats from up and down the lineup to generate consistent contact.

The Blue Jays finished with the highest batting average in the league and also held the highest xBA in MLB. They owned the league’s lowest strikeout percentage and walked at the 13th highest rate in MLB. Toronto finished with the fourth highest wRC+ in baseball, despite its lethargic month of September and a very slow start to the year offensively.

The Blue Jays offence came to life during their critical season-concluding four-game win streak and will hopefully see that momentum carry into this series.

Following their massive output in the final game of the regular season, the Jays hold a respectable wRC+ of 102 over the last 30 days. Their greatest offensive regression during Bo Bichette’s absence from the lineup has come versus left-handed pitching, as they have hit to a wRC+ of just 89 versus lefties since September 1st.

Bo Bichette is still listed as day-to-day, but it is beginning to appear highly unlikely that he will factor into this series. Bettors will want to check the ALDS rosters to see if he’s included when they’re released on Saturday.

Which bullpen is able to outperform the other appears to be one of the greatest question marks entering this series. It’s clear that the Yankees project to hold an edge offensively in terms of power-hitting and in terms of starting pitching, while the Blue Jays field the ball more effectively and should force New York to field effectively by putting plenty of balls in play.

Over the last 30 days, Toronto’s bullpen ranks eighth in baseball in allowing an ERA of 3.45, with an xFIP of 3.87. On paper, there’s an argument to be made for the Yankees relief staff, but the recent results suggest it’s not a given that the Blue Jays bullpen offers a weakness in comparison.

Kevin Gausman has earned the right to this critical start with a spectacular second half, which saw the righty pitch to an ERA of 2.81 across 83 1/3 innings of work. His underlying results were also excellent, as he held an xFIP of 3.21 and a strikeout-minus-walk-rate of 21.3%.

Gausman struggled in his last two appearances of the regular season, however, allowing eight earned runs across 9 1/3 innings of work versus the Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays. While the actual results were concerning, his 1.53 FIP in those two matchups is a strong indicator of bad luck.

While the Blue Jays offence was able to stabilize during its final series of the year versus the Rays, their offensive regression over the final month of the season was quite concerning, and they will be facing much tougher pitching in this matchup. Gil has pitched well in a small sample size this season and will lead into the bullpen, which projects to be quite excellent on paper.

Gausman was fantastic in the second half of the season and could benefit from some extra rest entering this critical matchup. The Blue Jays bullpen finished the season in strong form, and aside from some shakiness from Jeff Hoffman, I actually feel fairly confident that they can perform in this series.

The Wild Card round featured a ton of low-scoring matchups, as high-quality bullpens entered at the first signs of struggle from any given team’s starting pitcher. We should see a similar storyline in this matchup, and a total of eight appears to be a touch high.

At -120 or better, I see value in betting Game 1 to feature less than eight runs.