The Blue Jays exploded for 10 runs in Saturday’s series opener, staking a one-game lead in the ALDS with their first postseason win in nine years. Oddsmakers now price the Blue Jays at -155 to win the series, but Toronto is a considerable underdog in Game 2, as Trey Yesavage (3.21 ERA, 14 IP) will make his fourth career start versus Max Fried (2.86 ERA, 195 1/3 IP).

Let’s dive into the game odds for Sunday’s matchup between the Yankees and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

The Yankees will look to respond after suffering an embarrassing loss in Saturday’s series opener, as the Blue Jays blitzed their bullpen to blow open what once appeared to be a nail-biter early in the contest. While the Yankees’ one-run, six-hit offensive performance wasn’t overly impressive, the greater concern moving forward may remain the team’s relief staff.

As expected, Luis Gil did not pitch deep into Game 1, recording only eight outs and forcing New York to use five different relievers. The Blue Jays blew the game open by managing three earned runs off of Luke Weaver, who’s now allowed five earned runs without recording an out this postseason.

The Yankees waived the white flag to some extent in opting to use Pete Blackburn to record the final four outs, and he gave up six hits and four earned runs, handing us a frustrating loss on our Game 1 best bet. Manager Aaron Boone will likely be counting on a longer outing from Max Fried in Game 2, and he’ll likely be followed by Devin Williams and David Bednar if all goes to plan.

After allowing an ERA of 2.86 across 195 1/3 innings of work in the regular season, Fried was excellent in his Yankees postseason debut in Game 1 of the Wild Card round, allowing zero earned runs and four hits across 6 1/3 innings of work. Fried entered the playoffs in excellent form, as he pitched to an ERA of 1.89 in his final five starts with an xFIP of 2.91.

Based on the majority of key batting statistics, the Yankees were the best offensive team in baseball this season. The amount of swing-and-miss in the lineup was certainly the team’s biggest flaw entering the postseason, where power-hitting can dry up versus elite pitching.

The top of the sixth inning was a good case in point towards the concerns regarding the Yankees’ offence, as Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both struck out in critical ABs, preventing the Yankees from getting more than one run from an inning that started with a bases-loaded, no-out situation.

While Judge is now 4-for-11 (.364) this postseason, his critical sixth-inning strikeout certainly didn’t help the perception that he is not a clutch hitter in the postseason.

Whether you win by nine runs or one run, it’s all the same in a five-game series; the Blue Jays’ Game 1 offensive explosion could mean a lot for a roster core that has struggled to produce in the postseason in recent years. Game 1 could provide plenty of confidence for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., in particular, who has struggled in the postseason historically but went 3-for-4 with a home run.

The Blue Jays held an xBA of .340 in Saturday’s matchup and offered plenty of high-quality at-bats, striking out only twice in the game while managing 14 hits.

The Jays were drastically less effective versus left-handed pitching in the final month of the season, hitting to a wRC+ of 89 and slugging .397. Throughout the entirety of the season, the Blue Jays owned fairly neutral splits and actually still even rank third in wRC+ versus lefties dating back to the start of July.

Part of the dip obviously comes down to Bo Bichette’s absence from the lineup, but a gigantic change in production does not come down to having one strong batter out of the lineup. Based on the entirety of the season, it’s still quite reasonable to argue the Jays should not hold such drastic splits, and these types of low points do happen to every team in baseball.

The Blue Jays entered the postseason graded as the fourth-best team in terms of Defensive Runs Saved and ninth in Outs Above Average. They fielded the ball quite well in some key spots in Game 1 and should continue to have an edge in that regard in this series.

The Blue Jays’ lineup should be very familiar with Fried, as they will be facing him for the fifth time this season in Sunday’s matchup. Aside from Fried’s dominant performance in late April when the Jays’ offence still had not yet found its footing, they have hit the dominant lefty quite effectively. Fried has pitched to an ERA of 5.40 in his last three starts versus the Blue Jays and managed only nine combined strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings of work.

The Blue Jays surprised in offering the Game 2 start to Yesavage, perhaps believing that the rookie may be more comfortable making his first postseason start at home, and maybe even partly believing he is already the team’s second-best starting option.

While Yesavage’s 3.21 ERA across 14 innings of work is highly impressive, his underlying profile still suggests he has been better than that mark suggests, and a deep-dive into his performance versus the Kansas City Royals would tell you that he was quite unlucky to allow four earned runs.

Yesavage has struck out 25.8% of batters faced this season and holds an FIP of 2.35. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 106, which may undersell the overall quality of his stuff when considering the true nastiness of his uniquely high release point.

The Blue Jays’ chances of stealing a 2-0 series lead in this matchup seem to be undervalued by oddsmakers, and I’m willing to buy on the upside of Yesavage given the way that the Blue Jays have gotten to Fried this season. Toronto’s excellent offensive approach was on full display in Game 1, and while Fried presents a tougher challenge, I’m willing to put some faith in their excellent production versus the tough lefty this season.

Toronto’s bullpen also seems to offer another edge in this matchup, and it wouldn’t be overly surprising if it were able to steal a win later on in this matchup, thanks to another collapse from the Yankee bullpen.

Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline +130 (bet365, Play to +120)