The Toronto Blue Jays are priced as slight betting favourites on Monday in the opener of their four-game series versus the Tampa Bay Rays, a game that is garnering plenty of extra attention, as top pitching prospect Trey Yesavage will make his first MLB start.

Yesavage’s first career start will kick off an exciting week for the Blue Jays’ faithful, as the team’s magic number to win the division is down to 10. Though the Blue Jays have struggled to find success in Tampa Bay in recent years, they will have a strong chance to buck that trend Monday as Joe Boyle (5.40 ERA, 36 2/3 IP) is expected to start for the Rays, though they have not officially confirmed a starter at the time of writing.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Monday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and the Rays, courtesy of bet365.

The Blue Jays struggled mightily to find much success over the last decade playing at Tropicana Field versus the Rays, and their first three games at George M. Steinbrenner Field this season did not go any better, as Toronto went 0-3 and was outscored 19-2.

The Blue Jays’ embarrassing three-game sweep in Tampa Bay marks the turning point in their season, and they are clearly a better team now than they were when these teams last met at George M. Steinbrenner Field. After suffering the three-game sweep in Tampa in May, the Blue Jays held a record of 25-27. But they have gone an outstanding 62-35 since that point.

Due to health concerns, Yesavage fell farther down the board than expected in the 2024 MLB draft. The Blue Jays seem likely to be rewarded for putting a halt to his slide down the board at No. 20, as the towering righty has authored a dominant first professional season to earn the opportunity to make his first big-league start.

After starting the season in Single-A, Yesavage has torn through every level of the minor leagues while authoring eye-popping strikeout numbers. Across the four levels in which he has worked this season, Yesavage leads all of professional baseball with a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 31%.

In Yesavage’s seven appearances in Triple-A, he owns a strikeout rate of 36.1% and an ERA of 3.63. Near the tail end of his tenure with the Buffalo Bisons, Yesavage was used as a reliever, which may be his most likely role on the Blue Jays if he can acclimate to the big league level and earn a spot on the postseason roster.

Yesavage utilizes an extremely high and deceptive release point, and minor league batters have had an extremely hard time tracking his stuff out of his hand. He offers a quality three-pitch mix, including a strong mid-90s four-seamer, a nasty splitter, as well as a gyro-slider.

Yesavage is stretched out to handle a full starter’s workload, if desired, and will likely be awarded the chance to pitch fairly deep into Monday’s matchup if things go relatively smoothly. Toronto’s bullpen has been an obvious concern recently, sporting an ERA of 4.30 since August 1st and an ERA of 5.18 in high-leverage situations in the same span.

The Blue Jays have remained one of the hottest teams in the league offensively over the last month, as they hold a wRC+ of 124 and a weighted on-base average of .349. They have struck out at the second-lowest rate in MLB over that span and hold the highest BB/K ratio in baseball this season.

Bo Bichette remains on the 10-day IL with a knee sprain and will be ineligible to return until Wednesday’s matchup at the earliest, though reports suggest he could be sidelined for a longer period of time, especially given that the team is well situated to use plenty of caution.

At the time of writing, it is still unclear who Rays manager Kevin Cash will start in this matchup, but Joe Boyle appears to be the most likely candidate. Boyle was scratched from his Triple-A start on Sunday, and pitching coach Kyle Snyder stated that Monday will not be a bullpen day.

Boyle has pitched to an ERA of 5.40 and xFIP of 5.08 in 36 and 1/3 innings of work in MLB this season. His stuff grades out quite well (Stuff+ of 108), but he has struggled mightily with command this season, issuing 5.15 walks-per-nine and allowing 1.47 HR/9. He has been highly effective in Triple-A this season, pitching to an ERA of 1.88 across 86 innings of work.

The Rays bullpen has been in good form recently, as over the last 30 days, they have held an ERA of 3.87 and an xFIP of 3.27.

Since August 1st, the Rays rank 20th in baseball with a wRC+ of 95 and have struck out at the fourth-highest rate in MLB. They have been more productive versus right-handed pitching in that span, however, as they hold a wRC+ of 101 and a weighted on-base average of .318.

Yesavage has taken a start or two to adjust each time he’s gone up a level this season, which is an obvious concern for bettors considering backing the Blue Jays in this matchup. Still, it seems likely to believe that he has the stuff to garner effective results at the big-league level this season, and he is getting a decent matchup versus a fairly mediocre Rays lineup.

One factor that will work against Yesavage in this start will be the hitter-friendly confines of Steinbrenner Field, but the same can be said for Boyle, who could struggle versus a very disciplined Blue Jays lineup.

There is a realistic chance the Blue Jays could take this game thanks to a high-quality outing from Yesavage, but it’s also quite possible that Toronto could manage a lofty offensive output and find a way to win if Yesavage does struggle.

At -120, I’m happy to back the Blue Jays extending their winning streak to five games in this exciting matchup.