The Toronto Blue Jays will look to become the first team in the American League to reach 90 wins Friday evening, as they open up their final road series of the regular season versus the Kansas City Royals.

As the Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker over the New York Yankees, they enter this series with a three-game lead in the AL East and hold a magic number of six to clinch the division.

Oddsmakers currently offer the Blue Jays a 56% chance of snapping their two-game losing skid on Friday, as Max Scherzer (4.31 ERA, 79 1/3 IP) will face off against Michael Lorenzen (4.91 ERA, 128 1/3 IP).

Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and the Rays, courtesy of bet365.

After a fairly lethargic offensive performance early this week versus the Rays, the Blue Jays are in a strong spot to bounce back offensively as they take on Michael Lorenzen in Friday’s series opener. Toronto has been the most productive team in the league versus right-handed starters since the start of July. It has also hit four-seamers, sinkers, and changeups well this season, which is a positive indicator in a matchup versus Lorenzen.

Since the All-Star break, the Blue Jays rank first in the AL with a wRC+ of 126 versus right-handed pitching and have struck out at the second-lowest rate in MLB. Bo Bichette’s absence from the lineup was notable during this week’s series versus the Rays; however, his absence should be most significant in matchups versus left-handed starters, given the fill-in options at John Schneider’s disposal and the fact that Bichette holds an OPS of .891 versus lefties this season.

Scherzer’s experience in big games may ultimately help him earn some innings this postseason, and his recent form suggests he may still have a purpose at the back end of the rotation. In his last 44 1/3 innings of work, Scherzer has pitched to an ERA of 3.86 and a FIP of 4.88.

In those innings he has struck out 19.6% of batters and holds a Pitching+ rating of 101 despite a significant dropoff in velocity compared to earlier on in his incredible career.

Scherzer was effective in his last start versus the Royals on August 2nd, allowing five hits and one earned run across six innings of work.

By playing to a record of just 3-7 over their last 10 games, the Royals have essentially put to rest any chances of sneaking into the AL’s final Wild Card spot. And given their -19 run differential and expected record of 74-79 playing in a soft AL Central, it’s hard to make a case that they deserve to be a playoff team.

The Royals are also just 11-16 versus the AL East and hold a record of 37-51 versus teams that are above .500.

Over the last month, the Royals hold a 21st-ranked wRC+ of 92 and also rank 21st in weighted on-base average. They have been considerably more effective versus right-handed pitching in that span, however, as they hold a wRC+ of 100 and have struck out at the lowest rate in MLB.

The Royals’ starting rotation has been their greatest weakness over the last month, as they’ve pitched to an ERA of 5.51. Lorenzen’s shaky form has been part of the problem, as the veteran righty has allowed an ERA of 5.97 throughout his last six appearances.

Lorenzen’s underlying numbers do suggest he could find positive regression in the near future, though they do suggest he is a below-average starting option. He holds a FIP of 4.54 throughout his last 28 2/3 innings pitched and a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 16.1%.

Lorenzen’s recent pitch metrics are also drastically below average, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 88 and a Pitching+ rating of 92.

While the Blue Jays’ offensive play earlier this week versus the Rays was concerning, Joe Boyle, Ian Seymour, and Shane Baz all appeared to turn in high-quality starts, and it seems fair to believe that the quality of pitching faced was part of the problem. Lorenzen has struggled mightily where it counts of late in terms of runs allowed, and his pitch metrics suggest that he is likely to continue offering below average results moving forward.

Backing Toronto to go over its team total of 4.5 at -115 looks like a solid option from a betting perspective. However, backing the Blue Jays to win a game with a total over 5.5 games at +100 appears to hold slightly more value, and is my favourite play from this matchup, as I believe a fairly high-scoring Blue Jays win is a likely result.