MLB Betting Preview (Sept. 23): Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt (40) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park

Photo credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

Sep 23, 2024, 10:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 23, 2024, 10:08 EDT

The final week of the MLB regular season is finally here, and the Toronto Blue Jays will open a six-game homestand on Monday against the Boston Red Sox to close out the campaign.

Toronto suffered a three-game sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend to fall 10 games below .500 with six games remaining. The Blue Jays have just one win in their last six games.

Boston, meanwhile, took two of three games from the Minnesota Twins at Fenway Park over the weekend to keep its slim playoff hopes alive. Saturday’s game in that series was postponed due to bad weather, so the Red Sox were forced to play a doubleheader on Sunday and then jet off to Toronto later than initially planned.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Monday’s series opener between the Red Sox and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds

Red Sox Moneyline Odds	+100
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds	-120
Runline Odds	Blue Jays -1.5 (+175), Red Sox +1.5 (-210)
Over/Under	Over 8 runs (-110), Under 8 runs (-110)
Time/Date	Sept. 23, 7:07 p.m. ET
TV	Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+

Betting Boston Red Sox (78-78 SU, 72-84 ATS, 77-71-8 o/u)

The Red Sox enter this series four games back of the final American League Wild Card spot with six games to play, which gives them a microscopic 0.2% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. Although technically still alive in the playoff race, Boston has already unofficially waved the white flag on the season after placing superstar third baseman Rafael Devers and closer Kenley Jansen on the injured list with shoulder problems. And outfielder Tyler O’Neill is questionable with a back injury, so the Red Sox could be missing three key players heading into this series.

The Red Sox were one of the best offensive teams in baseball in the first half of the season, but production has dropped off in September, with the club slashing just .228/.299/.370 this month. Jarren Duran has particularly struggled, going homerless while hititng just .227 this month after carrying the team all the season.

The Red Sox have taken six of the previous 10 games against Toronto in the season series, and the two teams have played to a 5-5 over/under record.

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (73-83 SU, 82-74 ATS, 78-74-4 o/u)

Scoring runs has been a problem all season for Toronto, and with nothing to play for down the stretch, the trend will likely continue through the final week of the season. The Jays have mustered just nine total runs over their last five games against the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays, being shut out twice during that span.

One player that has refused to give up offensively, though, is Vladimir Guerrero Jr, who is coming off back-to-back, three-hit performances against the Rays. He’s slashing .417/.481/.708 over the last seven days , and his .327 batting average is second in the majors behind Bobby Witt Jr. Vladdy boasts a .981 OPS and has driven in 10 runs in 10 games against Boston this season.

Probable starting pitchers

Boston: RHP Tanner Houck (8-10, 3.21 ERA, 7.98 K/9, 1.16 WHIP)

Houck has already thrown a career-high 173 2/3 innings this season, so don’t expect a long outing from him in this one. Manager Alex Cora gave him the hook after just 60 pitches in his last outing against Tampa Bay in an attempt to preserve his arm for next season and beyond. Houck has pitched well in his previous two appearances against the Blue Jays this season, allowing four earned runs over 12 1/3 innings while striking out 12.

Toronto: RHP Chris Bassitt (10-13, 4.16 ERA, 8.96 K/9, 1.43 WHIP)

Bassitt will be making his fourth start against the Red Sox this season, and he’s pitched well against them, posting a 2.29 ERA with 17 strikeouts over 19 2/3 innings. He lasted just 3 2/3 innings the last time he took the mound against the Texas Rangers, who tagged him for seven runs (only one earned, though) on 80 pitches. Don’t expect a long outing from Bassitt in this one as the Jays look to monitor his workload down the stretch.

Weather

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 19 C under cloudy skies this evening, so the retractable dome could be open. Winds will blow in from right field at 10 mph, if this game is played outdoors.

MLB betting trends

The Blue Jays have played under the game total in five straight games.
The Red Sox have played under the team total in 10 of their last 12 away games.
Boston has covered the runline in 10 of its last 16 games.

MLB player prop trends

Houck has struck out four or more batters in three straight starts and in 74% of his outings this season. He’s -180 to strike out over 3.5 batters in what is expected to be a shorter than usual outing.
Ceddanne Rafaela has struck out in 16 straight games and is -240 to strike out at least once on Monday.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit safely in four straight games and in eight of his last 10. Vladdy is -270 to get a hit.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions

Blue Jays moneyline: +100. The Jays will have the rest advantage here after Boston played a doubleheader on Sunday and likely didn’t get into Toronto until the early morning hours Monday. Boston’s lineup without Devers, and potentially O’Neill, will lack some serious thunder, and should give the Jays an edge here at even-money odds at home.
Keep an eye on Triston Casas, who belted three home runs and collected seven RBIs in the first contest of Sunday’s doubleheader against the Twins before going hitless in the nightcap. He’s 1-for-4 in his career against Bassitt, but that one hit was a long ball. We’re getting a good price here at +550 odds for him to homer and -155 to get a hit.