After officially clinching a playoff berth with their win on Sunday over the Kansas City Royals, the Toronto Blue Jays will return home for a season-concluding six-game homestand. While the Blue Jays limp into this series with losses in four of their last five matchups, a record of 4-2 the rest of the way is still enough to clinch the division for certain, while a record of 3-3 would force the New York Yankees to go 6-0.

Oddsmakers consider the Blue Jays heavy favourites to earn a critical win Tuesday evening, as red-hot starter Kevin Gausman (3.38 ERA, 183 2/3 IP) will face off against overachieving veteran Lucas Giolito (3.46 ERA, 140 1/3 IP).

Let’s dive into the game odds for Tuesday’s matchup between the Red Sox and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

With a record of 4-6 in their last 10 games, the Red Sox have put some significant stress upon themselves to manage a respectable record in their final six games to avoid a disappointing playoff miss. FanGraphs still offers Boston a 90% chance of earning a playoff berth, but that mark is down from 98.2% on September 2nd.

The Red Sox will be favourites in Wednesday’s matchup with Garrett Crochet likely to face off against Max Scherzer, and the Blue Jays likely have their easiest matchup of the series, at least on paper, Tuesday with their ace on the mound versus Giolito.

While Giolito’s 3.46 ERA throughout 140 1/3 innings is impressive, he has outperformed his expected metrics by a considerable margin this season and has suffered from negative regression recently with an ERA of 4.20 over his last three starts.

In his last 10 appearances, Giolito holds an xFIP of 4.97, allowed an xBA of .245, and managed a strikeout-minus-walk rate of just 7.3%. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 92 in that span and a Pitching+ rating of 89.

While you have to give some credit to the actual results, Giolito pitched to ERAs of 4.90 and 4.88, respectively, in the previous two seasons, and the underlying metrics suggest he is still pitching at a comparable level. Despite allowing a 4.46 xFIP and an 11.1 strikeout-minus-walk rate with runners on base, he’s stranding baserunners at a career-best rate and has also done well in allowing only 1.09 HR/9.

The Red Sox bullpen has remained a strength recently, as over the last 30 days it ranks 12th in baseball, allowing an ERA of 3.81.

Boston has not been in great form offensively entering this series, as over the last month of play it holds a 19th-ranked wRC+ of 97 and ranks 23rd in BB/K ratio. Dealing with two noteworthy absences during that span, Roman Anthony and Wilyer Abreu have been part of the problem, but Abreu did make his return to the lineup on Sunday, going 0-for-4.

While it wasn’t enough to lead his side to victory and cash our prediction on the Blue Jays moneyline, Gausman was fantastic once again in his most recent start in Tampa Bay, allowing only one earned run across six innings of work.

Gausman has been one of the best starters in baseball since the All-Star break and has likely earned the right to start Game 1 of the postseason as a result. In 74 innings since the break, Gausman holds an ERA of 2.19 while allowing a miniscule 0.79 WHIP.

Throughout his last five starts, Gausman has pitched to an ERA of 1.75 and an xFIP of 3.07. He holds a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 22.6% in that span, and his strong pitch metrics suggest that is no surprise (103 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+).

The Blue Jays relief staff continues to feel quite untrustworthy, though the bullpen’s recent results suggest it is more so mediocre than awful. Over the last 30 days, Blue Jays relievers rank 17th in ERA and 15th in xFIP, and those numbers are tanked to some extent as catcher Tyler Heineman allowed 10 runs in an inning and a third on Friday.

With a record of 50-25 at the Rogers Centre, the Blue Jays own the best home record in the AL. As you would expect based on their record, they have been considerably more productive offensively at home, with a wRC+ of 121 entering this matchup. While Toronto’s bats went cold during its recent road trip, it still holds a strong wRC+ of 108 over the last month, and a wRC+ of 112 versus righties in specific.

It’s unclear when Anthony Santander will return to the lineup, but it seems reasonable to expect that he will see meaningful game action sometime this week.

While the Blue Jays suffered offensively on the road last week in Tampa Bay and Kansas City, they could get a spark from Sunday’s 8-5 playoff-clinching win as they return home where they have been drastically more productive this season.

Giolito has been less effective where it counts of late, and his shaky underlying profile suggests it’s a good time to continue fading the overachieving righty.

Gausman has been one of the best starters in the league for a lengthy stretch of play and gets a solid matchup Tuesday versus a Red Sox side that has also been in a lesser stretch of play offensively.

Bettors could consider playing it safe by backing the Blue Jays to win the first five moneyline at -120 (three-way market) and take the bullpens out of it, but I see more value in backing Gausman to record a win at a long price of +130. Gausman has worked at least five innings in 15 straight appearances and allowed more than two earned runs just three times in that span.