MLB Betting Preview (Sept. 24): Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions
Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
By Greg Warren
Sep 24, 2024, 11:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 24, 2024, 11:21 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will try to avoid a fifth straight defeat when they host the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night in the second contest of a three-game series at Rogers Centre.
Boston claimed a 4-1 victory in the series opener on Monday, backed by a strong performance from Tanner Houck, who tossed five scoreless innings on just 57 pitches.
Boston has won three straight games for the first time since early August to keep its slim playoff hopes alive.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Tuesday’s clash between the Red Sox and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds
Red Sox Moneyline Odds | +110 |
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | -130 |
Runline Odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+165), Red Sox +1.5 (-200) |
Over/Under | Over 8 runs (-105), Under 8 runs (-115) |
Time/Date | Sept. 24, 7:07 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ |
Betting Boston Red Sox (79-78 SU, 73-84 ATS, 77-72-8 o/u)
The Red Sox sit 3 1/2 games back of the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals for the final American League Wild Card spot, giving them a 0.4% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. They would need to win all five of their remaining games and get a ton of help in order to pull off a miracle, but from a betting perspective, this team is at least still playing for something and will be doing everything it can out on the field Tuesday to claim a win.
Tyler O’Neill returned to the lineup Monday after missing some time with back spasms and went 0-for-3 with a walk. His return gives Boston a much-needed power bat in the absence of Rafael Devers, who has been shut down for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury.
Boston is 7-4 straight-up against the Blue Jays this season, and the teams have played under the total in six of the 11 meetings.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (73-84 SU, 82-73 ATS, 78-75-4 o/u)
The offensive struggles of the Blue Jays have been well-documented this season, and their current power outage is one of their worst stretches at the plate this season. Toronto has scored just 10 total runs over its last six games, being shut out twice during that span.
Perhaps the only intriguing position player storyline remaining this season is whether or not Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can close in on Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. to claim a batting title with the highest average in the majors. Vladdy went 0-for-4 on Monday despite hitting the ball hard on a couple of occasions to lower his current mark to .324, 10 points behind Witt Jr. with five games left to play.
Probable starting pitchers
Boston: RHP Brayan Bello (14-8, 4.49 ERA, 8.47 K/9, 1.37 WHIP)
Bello has been very good since the All-Star break, posting a 4-3 record with a 3.41 ERA while averaging nearly a strikeout per inning over 12 starts. He’ll be making his fourth start of the season against the Blue Jays, who have touched him up for nine earned runs over 16 1/3 innings while hitting .237 off him. The right-hander has already surpassed his career high in innings pitched, so don’t expect him to pitch deep into this meaningless game. Manager Alex Cora lifted Monday’s starting pitcher, Tanner Houck, after just 57 pitches, and we could see a similar pitch count Tuesday for the young Bello in an attempt to preserve his arm for the future.
Toronto: RHP Bowden Francis (8-5, 3.47 ERA, 8.03 K/9, 0.93 WHIP)
Fans lost interest in this team in July, but Francis has been one reason for fans and bettors to stay entertained throughout the second half of the season. He took the loss last time out against the Texas Rangers, but he pitched well, allowing two earned runs while striking out six over six innings of work. Francis has been one of the best pitchers in the majors since the All-Star break, recording a 5-3 record with a 1.95 ERA and an incredible 0.58 WHIP. He’s also held hitters to a paltry .137 batting average since the Midsummer Classic.
Weather
Heavy rain is expected all day and night in Toronto, so the retractable dome should be closed on Tuesday night.
MLB betting trends
- The Blue Jays have played under the total in six straight games.
- The Red Sox have covered the runline in 11 of their last 17 games.
- The Blue Jays have hit the team total under in six of their last eight games.
MLB player prop trends
- Francis has recorded 18 outs or more in each of his last seven starts. He’s -200 to record over 17.5 outs.
- Francis has allowed five hits or less in eight of his last 10 starts. He’s -175 to record under 5.5 hits against him.
- Jarren Duran has recorded over two hits + runs + RBIs in seven of his last 10 games. He’s -145 to record over 1.5 in this game.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions
- Under 8 runs: -115. Toronto’s bats are woefully cold, and the Red Sox have a tough assignment against Francis. We should see a game similar to last night’s 4-1 scoreline.
- Guerrero Jr. has a 1.253 OPS with a pair of homers in 22 career at-bats against Bello. That’s a decent sample size, and it’s very clear Vladdy owns him at the plate. If you shop around, you can find Guerrero Jr. with +800 odds to homer, or you can take the safer play of over 1.5 total bases at around +125.