After suffering a very frustrating loss in Tuesday’s series opener, the Blue Jays are now dealing with some significant adversity as they look to avoid a catastrophic collapse in the division race.

Wednesday’s matchup is, on paper, the toughest of the series for the Blue Jays, as Garrett Crochet (2.69 ERA, 197 1/3 IP) will face off against Max Scherzer (5.06 ERA, 80 IP).

Let’s dive into the game odds for Wednesday’s matchup between the Red Sox and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

While it’s easy to make the case that Lucas Giolito was very lucky to sneak out of the Rogers Centre having allowed only one earned run in four innings of work, the Red Sox bullpen also deserves plenty of credit for allowing zero hits across four 1/3 innings after Giolito exited the game.

Manager Alex Cora will hope to receive a longer outing from Garrett Crochet Wednesday, and it would not be surprising if that is the case given that Crochet has lasted six or more innings in seven straight outings. Crochet holds a 3.07 xERA and 2.64 xFIP this season, across a hefty workload of 197 1/3 IP.

The big lefty has been slightly more hittable in the second half of the season, having allowed a 3.57 ERA in 68 innings of work. However, his recent underlying metrics suggest he’s still pitching at a comparably high level, as he holds an xFIP of 2.30 and a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 29.7% throughout his last 10 starts.

Crochet has also been more effective when pitching on the road this season with an ERA of 2.42, which is not overly surprising given that Fenway Park is quite favourable for run creation.

The Red Sox displayed a strong offensive process in the series opener, and it never felt as though Kevin Gausman was having an overly comfortable outing. Carlos Narvaez snapped his 0-for-17 skid with a critical two-run double and easily could have had two more in the second inning on a well-hit lineout to right center field.

Over the last 30 days, the Red Sox have now hit to a wRC+ of 101 versus right-handed pitching and rank 14th in baseball with a wRC+ of 102 versus righties this season. They will remain without Roman Anthony in this matchup, but Anthony is progressing and could have a chance of playing in the Wild Card Series, if Boston qualifies.

The Blue Jays are technically still two games up on the New York Yankees because they hold the tiebreaker entering tonight’s slate. However, New York is -385 to win tonight with Max Fried on the mound versus the Chicago White Sox, so it’s fairly safe to assume that if the Blue Jays lose this game, their lead will be down to one.

The Blue Jays’ bats have earned a reputation for going cold under pressure in recent years, and suddenly tonight’s matchup is one that provides a meaningful opportunity to show that this team is different than in years past, as the possibility of a horrific collapse in the division is becoming real.

Whether or not the Blue Jays would have managed enough runs to win the game remains to be seen, but third base umpire Scott Barry’s blown call in the second inning directly took two runs off of the board at a minimum and potentially changed the game.

It was far from an impressive night offensively, but the Blue Jays walked five times, hit to an xBA of .282, and struck out just six times. While those process numbers won’t ease the stress of Blue Jays fans, they are the type of numbers that suggested the team was due for better offence early on this season.

Garrett Crochet is the type of high quality starter the Blue Jays can expect to face in October, and to their credit, they have hit elite starters quite well throughout the majority of this season. They have started to struggle with left-handed pitching specifically, though, which partly comes down to Bo Bichette’s absence from the lineup.

Over the last month of play, the Blue Jays hold a wRC+ of 80 versus left-handed pitching and rank 26th in hard-hit rate.

Max Scherzer will be looking to respond after a treacherous outing versus the Royals, in which he allowed seven earned runs while recording only two outs. Over his last 10 outings, the veteran now holds an ERA of 5.02 and an xFIP of 4.81.

Scherzer’s velocity is down considerably compared to earlier in his career, and opposing batters have hammered his four-seamer as a result, slugging .467 with an expected slug rate of .568.

While it may not be wise to count out a future Hall-of-Famer in Scherzer finding a way to come through in this type of spot, the veteran does not have the same kind of stuff he used to and will always be fighting an uphill battle as a result. Given Scherzer’s recent struggles, it seems surprising to see this line move towards Toronto, which suggests sharper bettors were big on the Blue Jays at their opening price of -145.

Given the Blue Jays’ recent offensive struggles versus lefties, a spot versus Crochet seems pretty daunting, but I’m optimistic that the Blue Jays can manage a respectable offensive output in this matchup. They have still been the fourth most productive team in the majors versus lefties this season and have leaned on strong plate discipline to find success versus elite pitchers.

So while I’m not saying the Blue Jays will have a massive offensive output, I still have enough belief in them to feel that they can scrape out a respectable output in this critical spot. As I believe the Red Sox are quite likely to score three runs, +125 looks to be a long enough price to back both teams hitting that number in this matchup.