With a record of just 1-6 over their last seven games, the Toronto Blue Jays have made the possibility of blowing a significant lead in the American League East a very real possibility. On September 16th, FanGraphs projected them to win the division 98.6% of the time, but now they’re only ahead of the New York Yankees via the tiebreaker, dropping Toronto’s chances of winning the division to 54.1%.

While it’s been a horrible stretch offensively for the Blue Jays, they are favoured to win Thursday’s matchup versus Brayan Bello (3.34 ERA, 161 2/3 IP). Toronto will counter Bello with a bullpen game and will likely use Eric Lauer (3.22 ERA, 100 1/3 IP) following Louis Varland (3.10 ERA, 69 2/3 IP), who will be used as an opener.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Thursday’s matchup between the Red Sox and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

With two critical wins to start this series, the Red Sox’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is down to one entering tonight’s matchup. They hold a three-game lead, as well as the tiebreaker, over the Houston Astros, and therefore may even have clinched a postseason berth prior to tonight’s matchup if the Astros are to lose their matinee Thursday.

Bello has allowed three earned runs or more in four of his last five appearances and holds an ERA of 4.73 across 26 2/3 innings of work in that span. His recent underlying metrics aren’t overly convincing either, as he holds an xFIP of 4.45 in his last five starts and has allowed an xBA of .298. He also holds a Stuff+ rating of 97 and a Pitching+ rating of 94 in that span, and a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 7.8%.

Bello has not been able to pitch overly deep into ballgames recently, as over his last five starts he’s averaged only 16 outs. While Bello’s recent ineffectiveness relative to the rest of the season is the main reason for his shorter outings, he may also receive a short leash in tonight’s matchup even if he pitches fairly well given that all of Boston’s top relievers are well-rested entering this matchup.

The Red Sox have had a strong start to the series offensively, as after a very impressive performance versus Kevin Gausman on Tuesday, they managed 12 hits and seven earned runs in a more favourable matchup Wednesday. Over the last 30 days, the Red Sox hold a wRC+ of 102 and, contrary to the Blue Jays, seem to be catching their stride offensively at the right time.

Roman Anthony will remain sidelined for this matchup, but is reportedly progressing from his oblique injury and on track to play in the postseason if the Red Sox are to qualify.

After another highly disappointing performance on Wednesday, the Blue Jays have put themselves into a very uncomfortable position from a pitching perspective heading into the final four matchups of the regular season. Requiring Kevin Gausman to start Sunday’s season finale in an attempt to win the division could prove to be a disaster and is now a very realistic possibility, as even a three-game winning streak may not clinch the division.

No pitching matchup feels overly comfortable for the Blue Jays right now, but a matchup versus an out-of-form Bello offers a realistic chance to get right. Several of the Blue Jays’ top batters have hit Bello well historically, as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. holds a 1.209 OPS in 27 ABs, George Springer has hit .357 in 28 ABs, Addison Barger has managed an OPS of .962 in 11 ABs, and Alejandro Kirk has averaged .305 in 13 ABs.

Outside of Springer, those are the names that really need to get going offensively to help power the Blue Jays to an offensive turnaround.

Even amid a rocky month of September, the Blue Jays still hold a wRC+ of 102 versus right-handed pitching and the fourth-best BB/K ratio versus righties. Their hard-hit rate versus righties has dropped off considerably though, and as a result, it’s no surprise their BABIP has also fallen off recently.

Anthony Santander returned to the lineup as the DH on Wednesday, going 0-for-3 with a pair of strikeouts.

Varland has struggled to an ERA of 5.06 throughout his last 10 appearances, but his underlying metrics from that span are very encouraging. He holds an xFIP of 2.89, has struck out 27.9% of batters, and has a Pitching+ of 120 in that span.

Lauer will presumably be used following Varland in this matchup and has fallen into a tough stretch of play following an incredible start to the campaign. Throughout his last 10 appearances, Lauer has worked 31 1/3 innings both as a starter and long reliever and has pitched to an ERA of 4.88 with an xFIP of 4.66.

Based on the entirety of the season, Thursday’s matchup presents as a great spot for the Blue Jays to get right offensively, but the pressure of the divisional race seems to be getting to a roster core that has not exactly proven itself in the clutch in recent years. Believing in the Blue Jays offence has led to solid results for my Blue Jays betting guides this season (12-7-1, +4.6 units), but believing in them recently has caused a four-article losing skid.

While I’m trying hard to adjust to just how badly the Blue Jays have fallen off offensively, a betting total of 17.5 outs for Bello in this matchup still appears to be quite high, even if we downgrade Toronto’s offensive play quite considerably.

The most important part of the handicap comes down to the condition of the Red Sox bullpen, as their high-leverage options are well-rested entering this matchup. On top of that, the Blue Jays have still exhibited better-than-average plate discipline versus righties recently and will hopefully work some long at-bats versus Bello, even if their recent lack of quality contact is quite concerning.

At -130 or better, I see value in betting Bello to record under 17.5 outs in Thursday’s critical matchup, especially if Boston clinches a playoff spot via a Houston loss earlier in the day.