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MLBTR projects salaries for 13 arbitration-eligible Blue Jays, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at $20.4 million
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Photo credit: © John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Cam Lewis
Oct 6, 2023, 15:00 EDTUpdated: Oct 6, 2023, 15:03 EDT
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MLB Trade Rumours has released its annual projections for players who are eligible to head to arbitration this winter.
Here’s how their system works…
Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 13 years.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.
Below are the 13 Blue Jays who are eligible for arbitration this winter with their amount of Major League service time and projected salaries…
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.157): $20.4 million
  • Jordan Romano (4.051): $7.7 million
  • Danny Jansen (5.050): $5.2 million
  • Daulton Varsho (3.128): $5.5 million
  • Cavan Biggio (4.129): $3.7 million
  • Tim Mayza (4.156): $3.3 million
  • Adam Cimber (5.156): $3.2 million
  • Trevor Richards (5.084): $2.4 million
  • Erik Swanson (4.096): $2.7 million
  • Santiago Espinal (3.149): $2.5 million
  • Alejandro Kirk (3.047): $2.6 million
  • Genesis Cabrera (4.011): $1.4 million
  • Nate Pearson (3.005): $800k
The biggest salary here, unsurprisingly, is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has two more years of arbitration left before he’s eligible to become a free agent following the 2025 season. Vladdy was paid $14.5 million in 2023 and MLBTR projects that he’ll earn $20.4 million in 2024. That’s a very steep number if Guerrero Jr. has a ho-hum season again but it would be shocking if the Blue Jays decided now was the time to move on.
The Blue Jays could opt to save some money by non-tendering players who can be replaced internally. Adam Cimber at $3.2 million is pricey considering how he pitched before landing on the 60-day Injured List while having the likes of Ernie Clement and Otto Lopez on the 40-man roster might make Santiago Espinal at $2.5 million expendable.

ARTICLE PRESENTED BY BETANO

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