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National League playoff races as the season winds down
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Photo credit: © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Brett Holden
Sep 25, 2024, 08:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 25, 2024, 08:25 EDT
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres

Another victim of a fantastic division, the San Diego Padres. The division always seemed destined to go through Hollywood, with the star-studded Dodgers fielding one of the greatest teams in the modern era. While Shohei Ohtani has completed the run for the 50/50 club and tied for the best record in baseball, the Dodgers have had a far from easy time putting away the division. Boatloads of injuries, along with a hole in the middle infield and the rotating rotation, have stunted the Dodgers’ potential this season.
Enter the San Diego Padres. San Diego is one of only five MLB teams with 90 wins this season and the only one of those teams who don’t lead their division. Plus, for as hot the Tigers have been this month, the Padres have been just as hot, if not hotter. In their last 20 games, San Diego holds a 14-6 record, tied for the second-best in the league with the Tigers, and 8-2 in their previous 10.
San Diego has seen numerous players make some serious jumps at the plate in September, with all of Jackson Merrill, Jurickson Profar, and Luis Arraez hitting above .300 this month, coupled with some clutch hits from Fernando Tatis Jr. and Donovan Solano down the stretch, the Padres have become one of the most exciting teams at the plate. The Friars have been smacking the ball of late as well, sitting fourth in the MLB in wRC+, OPS, and wOBA, and sit third in the league in slugging. The unfortunate thing for San Diego with these stats is that both the Los Angeles Dodgers AND the Arizona Diamondbacks hold two spots above the Padres in all of those categories. So, while those numbers have been impressive, they are still chasing the guys they are battling for a playoff spot.
Padres pitching has been one of the best staffs in baseball in the final month of the season. The Friars own the second-best ERA in the MLB in September and the best ERA in the National League, while they also own the third and fourth lowest barrel and hard-hit%, respectively. Padres pitchers aren’t exactly overpowering and whiffing their opposition, but have been able to limit their bats.
Now, the other issue for the Padres is their inability to close out games. San Diego is tied for the fourth-most blown saves this month. Of all the pitchers on the Padres who have thrown at least 10 innings this month, closer Robert Suarez is the only pitcher with an ERA north of 3.20 with a 6.30. Probably an issue they need to shore up before October.
Heading into this series, the Dodgers will need to win two of three against the Padres to clinch the division. However, the Padres do hold the tiebreaker over Los Angeles. Kind of like the pest you can never get rid of, the Dodgers will need to really take advantage of the Padres’ shaky pitching late in games. With their recent clutch hitting, the division may once again call Tinsel Town its home for another year.
*Update: The Padres turned a game-ending triple play at the bottom of the ninth to bring the division to within 2.0 games. We love late September baseball, baby.
Sep 24, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; San Diego Padres and right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (23) celebrate the victory against the Los Angeles Dodgers and postseason berth at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

NL Wild Card Race:

San Diego Padres: 91-66 (+4.5 GB) 
We just mentioned the Padres, so we won’t get as in-depth on this one. But what we will talk about is their Wild Card odds.
The Padres walk out of Tuesday up 4.0 games in the NL Wild Card race. The issue for the Pads is their competition in the final week of the season. San Diego starts the week with the NL West-leading Dodgers and the other NL West team in a playoff spot, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Now, while the Friars have been in great form recently, this will be the real test heading into October. The schedule is tough, but there is no doubt the Padres will make the Postseason. I mean, considering their magic number heading into Tuesday is one, I think they’re fine. The biggest thing to watch for is if they can keep up their impressive play against playoff-level teams and how it can translate to October baseball.
New York Mets: 87-70 (+0.5 GB) 
One of the best stories of the year, the disgruntled Mets are finally in a playoff spot and thriving since the second half of the season kicked off. Since the All-Star break, the New York Mets own the second-best record in baseball while allowing the third-least amount of homers and the fifth-best ERA.
The final week for the Mets is not exactly smooth sailing, which could be a good thing. Starting on Tuesday, they head into Atlanta, a team sitting only a game-and-a-half behind the D-backs for that final Wild Card spot, so they will be gunning hard in this series. And, considering they are only 2.0 games behind the Mets, it brings a little extra to the table. Following the trip to Atlanta, the Mets will head to Milwaukee to wrap up their season. Milwaukee has already clinched the NL Central but have only won three games since winning the division. Milwaukee faces the lowly, (but gritty) Pirates before meeting with the Mets, which could soften them up heading into the last series of the season.
Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: Francisco Lindor. Lindor has once again proven why he signed that massive deal a few years ago, forcing himself into the NL MVP conversation… even though we all know who that award is going to… Unfortunately for Lindor and the Mets, Mr. Smile hasn’t played since September 15th due to a back injury. Frankie has warmed up before both the Sunday game against the Phillies and the Tuesday game against the Braves. Lindor says he is getting closer to a return and expects to get back into game action this week.
However, the Mets have gone 6-1 without Lindor in the lineup and his replacement, Luisangel Acuña, has stepped into the role flawlessly. Acuña, the younger brother of Ronald, sits second on the team in batting average, third in OBP, and first in slugging and wRC+ since his debut on September 14th. This isn’t a bad thing; if the organization’s No. 12 prospect can really find his footing in the Majors, while also getting one of the best players in the league back before October, the Mets could be in a fine position heading into the Postseason.
We already mentioned how good the team’s pitching has been in the second half of the season, but individually this month, the Mets pitchers have been fantastic. Seven Mets pitchers own an ERA south of 3.00 in September, including four starters: Jose Quintana, Tylor Megill, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino. And, while the starters are having a great month, it is closer Edwin Diaz’s numbers that are the most encouraging. In September, Diaz has a 0.79 ERA, with five saves, none blown, and 21 strikeouts in 11.1 innings; a stark contrast and exactly what the Mets needed from the guy Diaz was at the start of the year.
The Mets are 7-3 in the last ten games and have gone a league-leading 22-8 over the last 30. With their magic number sitting at four heading into this series with the Braves, this set in Atlanta could dictate not only the playoff lives of the Mets but how they could stack up against the competition in October.
Arizona Diamondbacks: 87-71 (0 GB)
Ah, the Arizona Diamondbacks, the reigning runner-ups from the 2023 World Series, and just like last year, they are in the exact same position. Arizona entered the 2023 Postseason, occupying the third and final Wild Card spot in the NL, beating out the Chicago Cubs by a single game.
This year, not only are they in a similar position, but similar form as well. The D-backs finished the season 4-6 in the last ten games. This year, with six games left in their season, the Diamondbacks are 5-5 heading into the most important week of the season. With some poor efforts against the Brewers at home, a tough 6-3 loss in San Francisco on Monday, and losing two of three against the Rockies, Arizona hasn’t looked too sharp in the final month of the season.
Now, the offence has not been the problem for the Diamondbacks. In fact, far from it. Arizona’s bats have been some of the best in all of baseball in September. Sitting first in the league in batting WAR, batting average, and RBIs in September, the offence is producing. The long ball has been the D-backs best friend this month, hitting the second-most dingers, behind only the Dodgers. But that seems to be all Arizona has been able to create. The Diamondbacks sit 20th in hard-hit% and 11th in barrel%.
For Arizona, it’s been the pitching that has let them down in this final month, sitting in the bottom-third in the league in pitching WAR, HR/9, and barrel% while holding the worst ERA in baseball this month with a 5.61 entering play on Tuesday. (It’s currently 8-0 Giants after four as of me writing this article, so that number is going to RISE).
The Diamondbacks are way too boom or bust for me heading into the most important week of the season. They are either losing 13-0 after five innings or winning 11-10 thrillers and that’s just not sustainable heading into the Postseason. This is the first team currently sitting in a playoff spot where I am confident they will not make it to October. (Oh, and it’s now 10-0 through 4.0+. So. That’s not great).
*11-0 now*
Atlanta Braves: 86-71 (0.5 GB) 
The Atlanta Braves are a damn good team, but how much of a loss has Ronald Acuña Jr. been? Wildly, a lot. Now, keep in mind: Acuña only played 49 games this season and has not played since May 26th, but the numbers don’t lie. Before his season-ending injury, the Braves were 10th in the MLB in batting WAR, but since the injury, Atlanta sits 20th. They also sit 20th in OBP, 18th in average, 23rd in strikeout%, and 16th in RBIs. Not great.
What has been working for Atlanta since the injury is the long ball and extra-base hits. The Braves have hit the fifth most home runs in the month of September, sixth best slugging, second best hard-hit%, and the best barrel% in all of baseball. That is good. Four hitters in the Braves lineup own a batting average north of .300, including Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II, and Ramón Laureano. Michael Harris II has had the most impressive month, tied for third in the MLB in home runs, the second most barrels, and the most hard-hit baseballs in the entire league.
The Braves pitching has been just as good as Atlanta’s power-hitting down the stretch. Atlanta’s pitching staff sits in the top ten in ERA, HR/9, runs, and barrel%, while also sitting in the top three in WAR, K/9, and strikeouts. Chris Sale looks five years younger with the way he has been pitching this season, especially during the most pivotal stretch of the season. Sale owns a 1.13 ERA in September, good for the second-best on his team and the sixth-best in the National League this month. Getting the guy going that you traded a former top-ten prospect for is crucial, and the Braves are getting it with Sale.
With a win already under their belt against a team they are chasing in the Mets, Atlanta has brought themselves within a game of striking distance for a Wild Card spot. If the D-backs continue to falter and the Braves can continue to gain ground on the Mets, Atlanta may be a force to be reckoned with in October.
And that is finally it. This is what we endure those long summer months for, baby. It all comes down to this week! Enjoy the baseball!

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