For weeks, the top of the free-agent market has been at a standstill, with agents and front-office executives engaging in a high-stakes staring contest — and nobody appears ready to blink quite yet.

On the eve of 2026, several marquee free agents remain on the board — specifically in the position-player and starting-pitcher markets — and aren’t expected to sign until after the New Year arrives. They will eventually find new homes, though, especially as spring training draws closer, with pitchers and catchers due to report in roughly six weeks.

Free agency has become as unpredictable as ever these days, making it incredibly difficult to cast predictions on where the remaining top free agents will sign. Nevertheless, let’s try our hand at doing just that. (For the sake of this article, teams can only sign one impact player from this group)

Prediction: Astros

Returning to where it all began…

The Houston Astros completed the infamous blockbuster trade with the Chicago Cubs just over a year ago, sending Tucker to the Windy City in return for a package of three players — Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith and Hayden Wesneski. So, could they actually turn around and bring him back this winter?

Crazier things have happened in this sport. But to pull off this heist, it’d require Tucker’s camp to accept a short-term, high-AAV contract with multiple opt-outs — perhaps something similar to the three-year, $120 million deal that Alex Bregman opted out of earlier this off-season.

It’d be a low-risk gamble for the Astros, one that’d greatly improve their chances of embarking on a deep playoff run next season. For Tucker, he’d return to the place that helped transform him into a superstar, betting on familiar scenery to boost his stock before re-entering a much weaker class of free-agent hitters next winter. That could also improve his odds of landing a lucrative long-term commitment, as he wouldn’t be tied to a qualifying offer.

Prediction: Blue Jays

If Tucker indeed opts for a short-term deal elsewhere, reuniting with Bichette and running it back with the same position-player group from last season (for the most part, at least) would likely be the next best-case scenario for the Toronto Blue Jays.

This team is one meaningful offensive addition away from tying a bow around a grade-A off-season. While Bichette isn’t the generational hitter that Tucker is, the 27-year-old infielder is pretty talented himself, having led the American League in hits twice (2021, 2022) and finishing three shy of matching Bobby Witt Jr. for that mark in ’25.

Considering Bichette won’t turn 28 until next March, the two-time All-Star still has many prime years left and would remain a franchise cornerstone alongside his close friend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. into the next decade. With Andrés Giménez already on the roster, the club could afford to be flexible with the deployment of its middle-infield duo, given that both are capable of playing second base and shortstop.

Prediction: Red Sox

Despite recent reports suggesting Bregman could make a surprising move to the desert, it’d still be shocking if he didn’t end up back with the Boston Red Sox next season. They’re too good a match not to end up reuniting together.

Granted, it should be noted that anything is possible with a Scott Boras client — whose clientele includes five of the eight free agents listed here. So, nothing should be considered finalized until the ink is dry. Having said that, Boston still needs to procure another impact hitter, even after acquiring Willson Contreras from St. Louis, and Bregman stands as the perfect option to follow leadoff hitter Roman Anthony.

Prediction: Yankees

Keeping with the theme of reunions, the New York Yankees also seem destined to run it back with the same position-player group next season. They’ve already retained Trent Grisham (accepted QO) and Amed Rosario (re-signed to one-year deal), leaving Bellinger as the franchise’s top remaining priority in free agency.

These aren’t the outspend-everyone Bronx Bombers anymore. They aren’t a serious contender in the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes. While they need more starting pitching, with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt expected to miss Opening Day, they don’t appear inclined to make a big splash in that market, either. As such, if management continues to maintain this conservative approach, re-signing Bellinger might be their only notable off-season acquisition.

Prediction: Giants

Aside from a few notable departures, the starting pitching market has moved at a snail’s pace since Dylan Cease set the tone with his seven-year, $210 million contract with the Blue Jays in late November. Valdez, of course, is arguably the top remaining starter available and would be an excellent No. 2 behind ace Logan Webb in San Francisco.

The Giants used 15 different starters last season, and only three logged at least 150 innings — Justin Verlander (currently a free agent), Robbie Ray (will enter free agency next winter) and Webb. They need another dependable piece for their rotation core, and Valdez — whose ground-ball profile would fit perfectly in front of a defence that includes third baseman Matt Chapman — would make plenty of sense as someone who’s made 31 starts in three of the last four seasons.

Between the addition they’ve already made, plus another one that appears to be on the way, their ’26 rotation would be much improved from last season, featuring Webb, Valdez, Ray, Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle.

Prediction: Mets

Ideally, New York would probably prefer to augment its rotation with a front-line arm for next season, perhaps with someone like Cease or Valdez. But management’s reported unwillingness to issue long-term commitments has limited their options this winter, which is why they may be forced to settle for a mid-rotation starter like Suárez.

The problem with that plan, though, is the 30-year-old southpaw is coming off a career year that included a 3.20 ERA, 3.21 FIP and 17.4 per cent strikeout-minus-walk rate over 26 starts — and he’s no doubt looking to cash in on his impressive performance. So it may still be several weeks, or even months, before an acceptable offer comes along.

Prediction: Cubs

There’s no question that Chicago still needs to acquire an impact bat to replace Tucker. At the same time, the club’s aging and declining rotation may present an even greater concern, with Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and potentially Matthew Boyd ($15 million mutual option in 2027, $2 million buyout) all departing after next season.

Cade Horton is the crown jewel of the Cubs’ staff, but he alone can’t anchor this rotation beyond ’26. He needs more help. That’s where signing Imai — whose posting window closes on Friday at 5 p.m. ET — could provide the most value. They don’t necessarily need him to make a seamless transition to North America in Year 1. It’s more about the “big picture” in this case, envisioning Horton and Imai as co-aces beginning in ’27.

Prediction: Marlins

It’s no secret the Marlins’ offence craves more thump after they ranked in the bottom third of the sport in home runs (154), SLG (.393) and wRC+ (96) last season. So, what better way to insert more power than by signing a six-time 30-home-run hitter from Japan’s NPB, right?

Okamoto, who must sign with an MLB team by 5 p.m. on Jan. 4, is exactly the type of free agent that ownership should be opening its chequebook for. While there are some concerns, like his injury-plagued ’25 season and long-term defensive value, none of those potential red flags should outweigh the immense offensive benefits he’d bring to South Beach.