As the starting pitching market continues to thin out, teams around the league are showing more willingness to take risks to complement their rosters. 
Most recently, the San Francisco Giants’ <a href="https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1876780183174168633">one-year deal</a> with veteran right-hander Justin Verlander signifies the necessity for creativity among hopeful contenders. The Giants were one of the team&#8217;s interested in top free agent starter Corbin Burnes before he pivoted and signed with the Diamondbacks. 
However, as options for free-agent starters dwindle, the Toronto Blue Jays now have to evaluate whether they need to take more risk than usual. Getting good pitching from the free-agent market will always be a gamble no matter what due to injury and potential poor performance but as of now, the Jays have yet to sign a starter to complement the current rotation. Options remain for the Jays this winter on the open market, depending on how much they want to commit to the pitcher in question. 
This begs the question: Should the Blue Jays consider signing a veteran arm on a short-term deal rather than a longer-term contract for a pitcher like Jack Flaherty?
Advantage of a short-term deal with a veteran pitcher
There is no such thing as a bad one-year deal. If that’s the mindset for viewing any short-term contracts, these deals can help teams compete or learn a lesson or two about their approaches. The best part about signing veteran pitchers is that they won’t typically demand a heavier commitment in the number of years or you are trying to find a diamond in the rough that is looking for a bounce-back campaign. This goes the same for the cost of their contracts given the existing volatility in their performance and health. 
Despite the risk associated with veterans, some teams have reaped the benefits of bringing in seasoned pitchers on one-year contracts.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Latest On Max Scherzer <a href="https://t.co/SkjY36h8b3">https://t.co/SkjY36h8b3</a> <a href="https://t.co/hc2dKfNPtA">pic.twitter.com/hc2dKfNPtA</a>
&mdash; MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) <a href="https://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1874602131971322243?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 1, 2025</a></blockquote>
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For example, the Tampa Bay Rays <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/one-year-contracts-that-have-paid-off-in-2021">signed</a> left-hander Rich Hill for a one-year, $2.5 million deal for the 2021 season. While Hill only stayed with the Rays for less than a year, he <a href="https://www.mlb.com/player/rich-hill-448179">pitched</a> a total of 95.1 innings and <a href="https://www.mlb.com/player/rich-hill-448179">produced</a> a 3.87 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, which is largely considered a win from Tampa’s perspective for betting on a pitcher on the wrong side of 40. 
If we turn back the clock, 36-year-old pitcher Jack Morris contributed to the 1991 Minnesota Twins with his excellent records during the regular season and the playoffs. Morris <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrija02.shtml">pitched </a>246 2/3 innings with a 3.66 ERA and 4.3 WAR that season. Most of all, he <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/best-one-season-stints-with-an-mlb-team-c303725582">shined</a> in his playoff appearance with five starts and a 2.23 ERA. He also r<a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/best-one-season-stints-with-an-mlb-team-c303725582">eceived</a> the World Series MVP award after delivering a shutout performance in Game Seven against the Atlanta Braves.
These deals showcase the upside of trusting veterans for their experience and skills. In best-case scenarios, these pitchers can help teams excel during the regular season while providing elite performances in the playoffs to push the team forward.
Disadvantage of a short-term deal with a veteran pitcher
The biggest issue with signing veteran pitchers is the inherent unpredictability due to their high risk of injuries and durability. This is mostly because aging is an inevitable process that every pitcher goes through – it’s only a matter of when age catches up with them eventually. There have been some great examples of pitchers who 
The Blue Jays weren’t also immune to making a bad one-year signing in the past. When Toronto <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/best-and-worst-of-offseason-s-one-year-deals-c289432022">brought</a> left-handed starter Jaime Garcia to the team on a one-year, $10 million contract in 2018, the team certainly didn’t expect the 32-year-old pitcher to <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/best-and-worst-of-offseason-s-one-year-deals-c289432022">record</a> his worst walk (11.7 percent) and home run (1.70 per nine innings) rates. The Canadian team eventually released Garcia at the end of August, long before he could finish his contract.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OTD?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OTD</a> Six years ago, the Toronto Blue Jays signed left-hander Jaime Garcia to a one-year, $10-million contract.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a> <a href="https://t.co/woIf8JVdDR">pic.twitter.com/woIf8JVdDR</a>
&mdash; Kevin Glew (@coopincanada) <a href="https://twitter.com/coopincanada/status/1758087714702811214?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 15, 2024</a></blockquote>
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The Baltimore Orioles also made a misstep when they <a href="https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/sports/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/kyle-gibson-orioles/3443302/">signed</a> veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10 million contract for the 2023 season. To Baltimore’s dismay, Gibson yielded a 4.73 ERA in 192 innings and generated only 0.9 WAR. The Orioles succeeded in reaching the playoffs that year despite Gibson’s struggles in the rotation, but they were flamed out quickly against the surging Texas Rangers. 
The main reason why teams hesitate to sign a veteran pitcher is because there is too much probability of the worst-case scenarios playing out. These kinds of deals are something a team with a solid core and farm system like the Los Angeles Dodgers can take on. But if teams who can’t depend on their depth take veterans on, there’s far too high of a risk of veteran signings backfiring. 
Is a short-term deal with a veteran pitcher worth it for the Blue Jays? 
The Blue Jays have been a team that primarily has found their starting pitching from outside the organization, with Jose Berrios, Bowden Francis, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Bassitt all being either signed or acquired from other organizations at some point in their career. Development-wise, the team’s farm system hasn’t produced a high-level starter in quite some time other than Alek Manoah, but even then, Manoah has struggled given his injuries and underperformance in the recent past. In other words, Toronto can’t afford to bet on aging starting pitchers to fill the gaps in its roster to contend this year. 
Based on the state of Toronto’s roster and depth, signing veteran pitchers isn’t the wisest move this offseason given the potential risk with the little depth the club has. Even so, if the Blue Jays can’t convince younger starters to join the team, they will be stuck in a place where they have to gamble on an older starting pitcher and with the likes of Manoah, Tiedemann, and Chad Dallas already on the sidelines to start the season, the depth outside of Francis, Yariel Rodriguez, and Jake Bloss to start the year is thin already.

As the starting pitching market continues to thin out, teams around the league are showing more willingness to take risks to complement their rosters. 

Most recently, the San Francisco Giants’ <a href="https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1876780183174168633">one-year deal</a> with veteran right-hander Justin Verlander signifies the necessity for creativity among hopeful contenders. The Giants were one of the team's interested in top free agent starter Corbin Burnes before he pivoted and signed with the Diamondbacks. 

However, as options for free-agent starters dwindle, the Toronto Blue Jays now have to evaluate whether they need to take more risk than usual. Getting good pitching from the free-agent market will always be a gamble no matter what due to injury and potential poor performance but as of now, the Jays have yet to sign a starter to complement the current rotation. Options remain for the Jays this winter on the open market, depending on how much they want to commit to the pitcher in question. 

This begs the question: Should the Blue Jays consider signing a veteran arm on a short-term deal rather than a longer-term contract for a pitcher like Jack Flaherty?

Advantage of a short-term deal with a veteran pitcher

There is no such thing as a bad one-year deal. If that’s the mindset for viewing any short-term contracts, these deals can help teams compete or learn a lesson or two about their approaches. The best part about signing veteran pitchers is that they won’t typically demand a heavier commitment in the number of years or you are trying to find a diamond in the rough that is looking for a bounce-back campaign. This goes the same for the cost of their contracts given the existing volatility in their performance and health. 

Despite the risk associated with veterans, some teams have reaped the benefits of bringing in seasoned pitchers on one-year contracts.

https://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1874602131971322243

For example, the Tampa Bay Rays <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/one-year-contracts-that-have-paid-off-in-2021">signed</a> left-hander Rich Hill for a one-year, $2.5 million deal for the 2021 season. While Hill only stayed with the Rays for less than a year, he <a href="https://www.mlb.com/player/rich-hill-448179">pitched</a> a total of 95.1 innings and <a href="https://www.mlb.com/player/rich-hill-448179">produced</a> a 3.87 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, which is largely considered a win from Tampa’s perspective for betting on a pitcher on the wrong side of 40. 

If we turn back the clock, 36-year-old pitcher Jack Morris contributed to the 1991 Minnesota Twins with his excellent records during the regular season and the playoffs. Morris <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrija02.shtml">pitched </a>246 2/3 innings with a 3.66 ERA and 4.3 WAR that season. Most of all, he <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/best-one-season-stints-with-an-mlb-team-c303725582">shined</a> in his playoff appearance with five starts and a 2.23 ERA. He also r<a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/best-one-season-stints-with-an-mlb-team-c303725582">eceived</a> the World Series MVP award after delivering a shutout performance in Game Seven against the Atlanta Braves.

These deals showcase the upside of trusting veterans for their experience and skills. In best-case scenarios, these pitchers can help teams excel during the regular season while providing elite performances in the playoffs to push the team forward.

Disadvantage of a short-term deal with a veteran pitcher

The biggest issue with signing veteran pitchers is the inherent unpredictability due to their high risk of injuries and durability. This is mostly because aging is an inevitable process that every pitcher goes through – it’s only a matter of when age catches up with them eventually. There have been some great examples of pitchers who 

The Blue Jays weren’t also immune to making a bad one-year signing in the past. When Toronto <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/best-and-worst-of-offseason-s-one-year-deals-c289432022">brought</a> left-handed starter Jaime Garcia to the team on a one-year, $10 million contract in 2018, the team certainly didn’t expect the 32-year-old pitcher to <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/best-and-worst-of-offseason-s-one-year-deals-c289432022">record</a> his worst walk (11.7 percent) and home run (1.70 per nine innings) rates. The Canadian team eventually released Garcia at the end of August, long before he could finish his contract.

https://twitter.com/coopincanada/status/1758087714702811214

The Baltimore Orioles also made a misstep when they <a href="https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/sports/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/kyle-gibson-orioles/3443302/">signed</a> veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10 million contract for the 2023 season. To Baltimore’s dismay, Gibson yielded a 4.73 ERA in 192 innings and generated only 0.9 WAR. The Orioles succeeded in reaching the playoffs that year despite Gibson’s struggles in the rotation, but they were flamed out quickly against the surging Texas Rangers. 

The main reason why teams hesitate to sign a veteran pitcher is because there is too much probability of the worst-case scenarios playing out. These kinds of deals are something a team with a solid core and farm system like the Los Angeles Dodgers can take on. But if teams who can’t depend on their depth take veterans on, there’s far too high of a risk of veteran signings backfiring. 

Is a short-term deal with a veteran pitcher worth it for the Blue Jays? 

The Blue Jays have been a team that primarily has found their starting pitching from outside the organization, with Jose Berrios, Bowden Francis, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Bassitt all being either signed or acquired from other organizations at some point in their career. Development-wise, the team’s farm system hasn’t produced a high-level starter in quite some time other than Alek Manoah, but even then, Manoah has struggled given his injuries and underperformance in the recent past. In other words, Toronto can’t afford to bet on aging starting pitchers to fill the gaps in its roster to contend this year. 

Based on the state of Toronto’s roster and depth, signing veteran pitchers isn’t the wisest move this offseason given the potential risk with the little depth the club has. Even so, if the Blue Jays can’t convince younger starters to join the team, they will be stuck in a place where they have to gamble on an older starting pitcher and with the likes of Manoah, Tiedemann, and Chad Dallas already on the sidelines to start the season, the depth outside of Francis, Yariel Rodriguez, and Jake Bloss to start the year is thin already.

Should the Blue Jays consider signing a veteran starter on a short-term deal?

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