Regression is not fun.
Heading into the 2023 season, the Blue Jays were in a good spot. They recently acquired a left-handed batter who could hit upwards of 25 home runs, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Bo Bichette all had good seasons.
Then, the 2023 season came and went, and every player but Bichette regressed, including that left-handed batter, Daulton Varsho. In fairness, Varsho is having a career-year in 2024 while Guerrero Jr.’s 137 wRC+ is his best since 2021, despite only hitting six homers in 60 games.
Sadly, Bichette has struggled mightily this season, as he has a .238/.288/.345 slash line with four homers in 240 plate appearances. Kirk had a horrendous start to his season, but is slashing .278/.375/.407 with a homer and four doubles in 63 plate appearances since April 14 on top of excellent defence.
That leaves us with Springer, who is the topic of this article.

Springer’s regression

From the start of the 2021 season until the end of the 2022, Springer was one of Toronto’s best hitters, as he slashed .266/.346/.502 with 47 homers in 925 plate appearances for a 136 wRC+. He was incredibly valuable to the Jays team – when healthy, as he missed significant time in 2021 and played through 2022 injured.
However, 2023 hit, and so did the regression. Last season, Springer slashed .258/.327/.405 with 21 homer runs in 683 plate appearances for a 104 wRC+ and a 1.8 fWAR. For context, the season before he had a 133 wRC+ and a 4.1 fWAR, the highest he had since 2017 with the World Series winning Houston Astros.
This led some to believe that Springer was regressing due to age, which isn’t that far fetched granted he was 33 during the 2023 season. To make matters worse, Springer’s start to the 2024 season was quite awful, simply put.
From the start of the season on March 28 until May 17, Springer slashed .196/.271/.288 with three homers in 170 plate appearances for a 64 wRC+. He had five doubles and six RBI, but he just wasn’t getting it done in the lead-off spot.
On May 18, the team made a change.

Sixth Spot Springer

On May 18, Blue Jays’ manager John Schneider moved Springer down to the sixth spot in the lineup. In kind, it has turned around his season.
In 61 plate appearances since moving down to the sixth spot (as well as the fifth and seventh spot), Springer is slashing .265/.393/.429 with two homers, along with a much higher BB% (16.4%) than K% (6.6%). This gives Springer a 141 wRC+ Over his last 10 games, Springer has a hit in eight of them and has a hit in 10 of the 15 games he’s played in.
The season numbers are on the up and up from this stretch as well. Springer now has a season slash line of .213/.303/.322 with five homers in 231 plate appearances. Moreover, he has a 11.3 BB% and a 14.7 K%, which is tracking to be his lowest career total. The wRC+ has jumped to 85, and he has a 0.5 fWAR.
This may just be a hot streak, as baseball is made up of hot and cold streaks, but for now, the Blue Jays can rely on Springer to produce offence near the middle of their lineup.
As always, you can follow me on Twitter @Ryley_L_D.