Since coming over from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Kevin Kiermaier trade, left-hander Ryan Yarbrough has been one of the few bright spots for a Toronto Blue Jays bullpen that&#8217;s seen much, much better days. 
For a few seasons, though, it was the other way around. It was always a scary sight when Yarbrough &#8212; who pitched to a 2.45 ERA and 3.78 FIP in 12 appearances against the Blue Jays from 2018-20 &#8212; would take the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays. So, this organization had to be thrilled when it acquired him at this season&#8217;s trade deadline.
But they&#8217;re likely even more pleased with how things have played out since then.
Yarbrough has made 11 relief appearances since joining Toronto, earning a 2.28 ERA and 3.74 FIP across 27.2 innings. That&#8217;s much improved from the 3.74 ERA and 5.17 FIP he posted in 32 outings with Los Angeles earlier this season.
The 32-year-old southpaw has also seen his strikeout rate increase, climbing from 13.9 per cent with the Dodgers to 22.3 per cent with the Blue Jays. Additionally, he&#8217;s reduced the number of free passes issued, shrinking his walk rate by just over two per cent, resulting in a 6.8-per-cent clip.
Adding another layer of progression, Yarbrough has taken a positive step forward with his quality-of-contact metrics, posting a 22.1-per-cent hard-hit rate against over 68 batted ball events. He&#8217;s also <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;lg=all&amp;type=24&amp;season=2024&amp;month=1000&amp;season1=2024&amp;ind=0&amp;startdate=2024-08-01&amp;enddate=2024-11-01&amp;team=0&amp;stats=rel&amp;qual=20&amp;sortcol=7&amp;sortdir=asc&amp;pagenum=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">one of six big-league relievers to surrender one barrel or fewer</a> across at least 50 batted ball events since the start of August.
While limiting hard contact was already a strength for the deceptive lefty, it&#8217;s become even more prominent in his brief Blue Jays tenure, as his average exit velocity (85.7 m.p.h.) and hard-hit rate against (28.8 per cent) on the season now rank in the 97th and 99th percentiles, respectively.
On top of inducing more weak contact, many of the balls put in play against Yarbrough have been on the ground, as he&#8217;s reduced his line-drive and fly-ball rates while increasing his ground-ball rate to 48.5 per cent &#8212; up 11.1 per cent from his time with the Dodgers.
<figure id="attachment_79155" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-79155" style="width: 2560px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-79155" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart.jpeg" alt="" width="2560" height="1440" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart.jpeg 2560w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart-2048x1152.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-79155" class="wp-caption-text">Source: <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-yarbrough-642232?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb&amp;season=2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Baseball Savant</a></figcaption></figure>
For a brief moment, it seemed like this might be the beginning of the end for Yarbrough, who accounted for minus-0.3 fWAR in Los Angeles. But since he&#8217;s come north of the border, his trajectory has turned on a dime almost instantly, which has put him back in the green, worth 0.2 fWAR.
The Blue Jays have helped put the veteran hurler back on track, and one of the ways they&#8217;ve done that is by suggesting he make a few changes to his pitch usage. Since he arrived, the curveball usage has dropped significantly, falling from almost 32 per cent in July to less than 25 per cent over the last two months.
In place of his breaking ball, Yarbrough has been throwing considerably more fastballs, particularly four-seamers and sinkers, raising his combined heater usage to north of 60 per cent since August after it finished at a season-low 45.4 per cent in July. That may seem puzzling for a pitcher whose average fastball velocity (86.2 m.p.h.) sits in the bottom percentile, but it&#8217;s worked extremely well to his advantage.
<figure id="attachment_79156" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-79156" style="width: 2560px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-79156" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart-1.jpeg" alt="" width="2560" height="1440" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart-1.jpeg 2560w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart-1-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart-1-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart-1-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart-1-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart-1-2048x1152.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-79156" class="wp-caption-text">Source: Baseball Savant</figcaption></figure>
Thanks to a few mechanical adjustments, helping clean up his low-slot three-quarter delivery, opponents have hit just .133/.264/.200 against Yarbrough&#8217;s 4-seamer and sinker in 53 plate appearances since joining the Blue Jays, producing a combined plus-five run value. And that&#8217;s made his curveball more effective, too, as it&#8217;s allowed one hit in 24 plate appearances (.042) in that span.
Not to mention, Yarbrough&#8217;s breaking ball has yet to be hit hard (an exit velocity of at least 95 m.p.h.) over the past two months while registering an impressive 42.1-per-cent whiff rate &#8212; an increase of almost 10 per cent following the Kiermaier trade.
Making a few tweaks to his craft has allowed the 6-foot-5 lefty to dominate in left-on-left matchups lately, surrendering an opponents&#8217; slash line of just .129/.182/.226 since the start of August. The only runs he&#8217;s given up in those situations over the last two months came via a two-run blast from St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar a few weeks ago at Rogers Centre.
This is where Yarbrough&#8217;s refined pitch sequencing has come into focus. He&#8217;s been getting ahead with his four-seamer, which he&#8217;s thrown 51.6 per cent of the time this month &#8212; his highest usage of 2024. Then, once he&#8217;s ahead in the count, he&#8217;ll unleash his knee-buckling curveball to finish off lefty hitters, who&#8217;re 1-for-11 (.091) with six strikeouts and own a .124 xwOBA versus his breaking ball as a Blue Jay.
With only four games remaining in 2024, three after Wednesday&#8217;s series finale against the Boston Red Sox, Yarbrough has a legitimate chance to enter this off-season with some momentum, helping his cause as a pending free agent. But perhaps Toronto should consider bringing him back for another go-around in 2025.
It&#8217;s no secret the Blue Jays&#8217; bullpen will undergo a major reconstruction this winter, and for someone like Yarbrough &#8212; who signed a one-year, $3.9-million contract last off-season &#8212; he could prove to be a reliable, cost-effective weapon next season, especially given how he&#8217;s performed since coming over via trade.
Assuming this front office tenders contracts to Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson this fall or re-signs them to cheaper short-term deals, management would have those two plus Chad Green and Génesis Cabrera, leaving four holes to fill in an eight-man &#8216;pen. That won&#8217;t be easy to accomplish and will likely require considerable resources.
So, why not take a chance to save some money on an established veteran arm?
Yarbrough could continue providing length in relief as Toronto&#8217;s full-time multi-inning reliever (or bulk guy if you prefer) next season, addressing a role the club has struggled to fill consistently since Ross Stripling converted to a starter following Hyun Jin Ryu&#8217;s season-ending Tommy John surgery in 2022.
The less money spent on relievers is typically the better, although the Blue Jays will probably have to ditch that theory to improve the back end of their bullpen. Still, any time there&#8217;s an opportunity to fill a spot with an inexpensive, established reliever coming off a strong couple of months, you should take it &#8212; and that&#8217;s likely what they&#8217;ll ultimately attempt to do.

Since coming over from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Kevin Kiermaier trade, left-hander Ryan Yarbrough has been one of the few bright spots for a Toronto Blue Jays bullpen that's seen much, much better days. 

For a few seasons, though, it was the other way around. It was always a scary sight when Yarbrough -- who pitched to a 2.45 ERA and 3.78 FIP in 12 appearances against the Blue Jays from 2018-20 -- would take the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays. So, this organization had to be thrilled when it acquired him at this season's trade deadline.

But they're likely even more pleased with how things have played out since then.

Yarbrough has made 11 relief appearances since joining Toronto, earning a 2.28 ERA and 3.74 FIP across 27.2 innings. That's much improved from the 3.74 ERA and 5.17 FIP he posted in 32 outings with Los Angeles earlier this season.

The 32-year-old southpaw has also seen his strikeout rate increase, climbing from 13.9 per cent with the Dodgers to 22.3 per cent with the Blue Jays. Additionally, he's reduced the number of free passes issued, shrinking his walk rate by just over two per cent, resulting in a 6.8-per-cent clip.

Adding another layer of progression, Yarbrough has taken a positive step forward with his quality-of-contact metrics, posting a 22.1-per-cent hard-hit rate against over 68 batted ball events. He's also <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;lg=all&amp;type=24&amp;season=2024&amp;month=1000&amp;season1=2024&amp;ind=0&amp;startdate=2024-08-01&amp;enddate=2024-11-01&amp;team=0&amp;stats=rel&amp;qual=20&amp;sortcol=7&amp;sortdir=asc&amp;pagenum=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">one of six big-league relievers to surrender one barrel or fewer</a> across at least 50 batted ball events since the start of August.

While limiting hard contact was already a strength for the deceptive lefty, it's become even more prominent in his brief Blue Jays tenure, as his average exit velocity (85.7 m.p.h.) and hard-hit rate against (28.8 per cent) on the season now rank in the 97th and 99th percentiles, respectively.

On top of inducing more weak contact, many of the balls put in play against Yarbrough have been on the ground, as he's reduced his line-drive and fly-ball rates while increasing his ground-ball rate to 48.5 per cent -- up 11.1 per cent from his time with the Dodgers.

[caption id="attachment_79155" align="aligncenter" width="2560"]<img class="size-full wp-image-79155" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart.jpeg" alt="" width="2560" height="1440" /> Source: <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-yarbrough-642232?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb&amp;season=2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Baseball Savant</a>[/caption]

For a brief moment, it seemed like this might be the beginning of the end for Yarbrough, who accounted for minus-0.3 fWAR in Los Angeles. But since he's come north of the border, his trajectory has turned on a dime almost instantly, which has put him back in the green, worth 0.2 fWAR.

The Blue Jays have helped put the veteran hurler back on track, and one of the ways they've done that is by suggesting he make a few changes to his pitch usage. Since he arrived, the curveball usage has dropped significantly, falling from almost 32 per cent in July to less than 25 per cent over the last two months.

In place of his breaking ball, Yarbrough has been throwing considerably more fastballs, particularly four-seamers and sinkers, raising his combined heater usage to north of 60 per cent since August after it finished at a season-low 45.4 per cent in July. That may seem puzzling for a pitcher whose average fastball velocity (86.2 m.p.h.) sits in the bottom percentile, but it's worked extremely well to his advantage.

[caption id="attachment_79156" align="aligncenter" width="2560"]<img class="size-full wp-image-79156" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/09/chart-1.jpeg" alt="" width="2560" height="1440" /> Source: Baseball Savant[/caption]

Thanks to a few mechanical adjustments, helping clean up his low-slot three-quarter delivery, opponents have hit just .133/.264/.200 against Yarbrough's 4-seamer and sinker in 53 plate appearances since joining the Blue Jays, producing a combined plus-five run value. And that's made his curveball more effective, too, as it's allowed one hit in 24 plate appearances (.042) in that span.

Not to mention, Yarbrough's breaking ball has yet to be hit hard (an exit velocity of at least 95 m.p.h.) over the past two months while registering an impressive 42.1-per-cent whiff rate -- an increase of almost 10 per cent following the Kiermaier trade.

Making a few tweaks to his craft has allowed the 6-foot-5 lefty to dominate in left-on-left matchups lately, surrendering an opponents' slash line of just .129/.182/.226 since the start of August. The only runs he's given up in those situations over the last two months came via a two-run blast from St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar a few weeks ago at Rogers Centre.

This is where Yarbrough's refined pitch sequencing has come into focus. He's been getting ahead with his four-seamer, which he's thrown 51.6 per cent of the time this month -- his highest usage of 2024. Then, once he's ahead in the count, he'll unleash his knee-buckling curveball to finish off lefty hitters, who're 1-for-11 (.091) with six strikeouts and own a .124 xwOBA versus his breaking ball as a Blue Jay.

With only four games remaining in 2024, three after Wednesday's series finale against the Boston Red Sox, Yarbrough has a legitimate chance to enter this off-season with some momentum, helping his cause as a pending free agent. But perhaps Toronto should consider bringing him back for another go-around in 2025.

It's no secret the Blue Jays' bullpen will undergo a major reconstruction this winter, and for someone like Yarbrough -- who signed a one-year, $3.9-million contract last off-season -- he could prove to be a reliable, cost-effective weapon next season, especially given how he's performed since coming over via trade.

Assuming this front office tenders contracts to Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson this fall or re-signs them to cheaper short-term deals, management would have those two plus Chad Green and Génesis Cabrera, leaving four holes to fill in an eight-man 'pen. That won't be easy to accomplish and will likely require considerable resources.

So, why not take a chance to save some money on an established veteran arm?

Yarbrough could continue providing length in relief as Toronto's full-time multi-inning reliever (or bulk guy if you prefer) next season, addressing a role the club has struggled to fill consistently since Ross Stripling converted to a starter following Hyun Jin Ryu's season-ending Tommy John surgery in 2022.

The less money spent on relievers is typically the better, although the Blue Jays will probably have to ditch that theory to improve the back end of their bullpen. Still, any time there's an opportunity to fill a spot with an inexpensive, established reliever coming off a strong couple of months, you should take it -- and that's likely what they'll ultimately attempt to do.

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