Jon Heyman on Edwin Diaz: "Could be a battle between the Blue Jays and Mets for Edwin Diaz.” (H/T @SpringerforMVP
The Blue Jays shouldn’t break the bank for Edwin Diaz
Photo credit: © Brad Penner-Imagn Images
By Ben Wrixon
Dec 4, 2025, 09:30 ESTUpdated: Dec 4, 2025, 09:25 EST
Edwin Díaz is arguably the best closer in baseball right now, but that doesn’t mean the Toronto Blue Jays should sign him to a massive contract this winter.
Díaz dominated out of the New York Mets’ bullpen last season. The fireballer recorded a 1.63 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings while converting 28 saves. Things also looked good under the hood. Díaz averaged 97.2 mph on his fastball and induced whiffs with his slider 44% of the time. Overall, the righty ranked in the 99th percentile in expected ERA, expected batting average, K-rate, and whiff rate.
These excellent numbers led Díaz, who will be 32 in March, to opt out of the remaining two years on his previous contract in search of a new one. He reportedly wants a five-year deal worth over $100 million, and that’s where the problems begin for the Blue Jays.
Good free agent contracts pay players for future performance, not what they have done in the past. There’s no questioning Díaz’s talent. What is worth questioning, however, is whether he could live up to such a contract that is similar to the one he just opted out of.
His fastball was actually down a few ticks from just a few years ago in 2025, as he averaged 99.1 mph on it in 2022. What if it continues trending downwards? Paying $20 million annually for the 2025 version of Díaz feels appropriate given how lesser relievers have been paid this winter, but what if by year three he’s sitting at 96 or 95 mph?
Díaz, like most relievers, also hasn’t been extremely consistent year-over-year. He posted a 3.52 ERA (112 ERA+) in 2024 and similar numbers in 2021. He hasn’t strung together two truly elite seasons in a row at any point in his career.
Teams often regret signing starting pitchers to big-money deals in free agency, but even those investments tend to work out better than relievers. The Blue Jays’ recent track record of signing starters versus relievers is proof of this theory—consider the success of Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt compared to Chad Green and Jeff Hoffman, for example.
Signing Edwin Díaz to the contract he’s seeking would likely take the Blue Jays out of the bidding for Bo Bichette or Kyle Tucker unless the organization intends to spend on the same level as the Los Angeles Dodgers. And even if they do, there’s plenty of argument to be made that Díaz on a long-term deal isn’t the best allocation of resources. If he comes down in asking price, then maybe the deal is more feasible, but this much money to one reliever could bite the Jays in the long run.
PRESENTED BY OFF THE ROSTER
Introducing Off The Roster—Toronto Sports, Unfiltered! Toronto sports fans, your new favourite conversation has arrived. Hosted by Cabbie Richards, Lindsay Dunn, and Dan Riccio, Off The Roster dives into the city’s legendary plays, brutal trades, OG jerseys, celebrity tweets, and everything in between. Raw, fun, and totally unfiltered, this is Toronto sports like you’ve never heard it before. Tune in live every weekday morning on the Nation Network YouTube channel, or catch episodes wherever you stream podcasts. Proudly brought to you by our founding partner, PROLINE. Off The Roster—the new sound in the 6ix.