logo
The importance of a hot start for the Blue Jays
alt
Photo credit: © Dan Hamilton - Imagn Images
Ryley Delaney
Feb 26, 2025, 20:00 ESTUpdated: Feb 27, 2025, 03:50 EST
Comments
The Toronto Blue Jays have made the post-season twice in the past four seasons.
Aside from poor roster construction in the two years they didn’t make it (2021, 2024), there is another common theme, a poor start.
In 2021, the first full season after the short rebuild ended, the Blue Jays had a 12-12 record after the first month for a .500 win percentage. The reality is, it wasn’t actually that bad of a start. The issue for the 2021 Blue Jays is it took them far too long to get hot, as May had a 15-13 record, June had a 12-11 record, July had a 12-11 record, and August had a 16-14 record. In crunch time (September and early October), the Blue Jays had a 21-9 record, being eliminated from post-season contention on the final season of the day.
Had they just gotten off to a better start, had Marcus Semien thrown the ball a foot higher, had the Blue Jays’ pitching been better, who knows how far the 2021 Blue Jays could’ve gone in the playoffs?
Expectations were high in the following three seasons. The Blue Jays had a much better start to the 2022 season and they had a 14-8 record in April for a .636 win percentage. They followed that up with a 14-12 record in May, a 15-13 record in June, a 14-12 record in July, and a 13-14 record in August. 
In crunch time, the final month and a bit, the Blue Jays went 22-11 for a .666 win percentage, making the post-season for the first time since 2020. It helped that the league added a third Wild Card spot.
The Blue Jays made the post-season again in 2023 thanks to a hot start. In March/April, they were 18-10, which is good because the Blue Jays’ May was horrendous, finishing with an 11-17 record. To make up for it, they had a hot June with a 16-11 record, followed by a 14-10 July. August was okay, finishing with a 14-13 record, followed by a strong September with a 16-11 record, before losing a meaningless game against the Tampa Bay Rays in October.
So there’s a common trend here. When the Blue Jays have a winning record in the first month, they tend to make the post-season. Even in 2021, they would’ve made it had there been three Wild Card spots. That begs the question, what happened in 2024?
Overall, the Blue Jays with the same expectations in 2022 and 2023 and finished with a dismal 74-88 record. That started with a poor March/April, finishing with a 15-16 record for a 484 record. Interestingly, that was the Blue Jays’ second-best win percentage by month, a precursor to what was come.
The first month was followed by a 12-13 record in May, a 12-16 record in June, and a 12-14 record in July. By that point, the Blue Jays had already sold before the 2024 trade deadline, and that actually led to their best month of the season. In August, they had a 16-12 record for a .571 win percentage.
Which was then immediately followed by a 7-17 record for a .292 win percentage. This was the worst winning percentage per month (for a full month) since May 2019 when they went 7-21. To find a month with that bad of a win percentage before 2019, you have to go back to 1995, same record, same month.
There is no secret recipe to success. Games in April matter just as much as games in September. To have a good season in 2025, a season in which the Blue Jays fully intend to contend, they need to have a hot start to put them in a good position for the rest of the season.
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. They can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.
All Toronto Blue Jays odds are brought to you by MLB betting site Betway!
Presented by Betway

Featured

Editorials

Breaking News