The Jays need help in so many areas this winter. They need to rebuild a bullpen, inject some offense, and figure out the future of the franchise.

Ross Atkins and company have so much work to do, it’d be easy to look beyond the rotation. But there are many reasons the Jays were connected to Max Fried before he signed with the Yankees and are actively in on the market’s top starter, Corbin Burnes. This team needs a top starter, desperately.

I might as well start with the simple reason: Toronto’s current rotation is not good enough to compete.

A year after having one of the best rotations in baseball, the Blue Jays starting rotation ranked 14th in ERA and 19th in FIP in 2024. Based on early 2025 Steamer projections, the Jays project to have just one starter with an ERA under 4.0 next season (Kevin Gausman at 3.85). For context, the 2022 Blue Jays had five starters with an ERA under 4.00.

With Gausman set to be 34 for Opening Day and Bassitt 36, it’s hard to expect Toronto’s rotation to magically take a step forward in 2025. Even with the upside of a Bowden Francis or the potential of Jake Bloss or Yariel Rodríguez, this group needs help.

Not only do the Jays need guys who can win games and post low ERAs, but they also need a starter who can haul innings. The Jays had the sixth-most relief appearances in baseball last year, with starters failing to go deep into games day after day and the relievers that came in faltering, too. Having to turn to your bullpen early and often is never a good thing, but it’s especially dreadful when the Jays had a 4.82 reliever ERA (worst in the American League).

Obviously, the Jays need to add some serious help in the relief corps this winter, but they can aid that group by adding an innings-eating starter. Only Guasman, Berríos, and Bassitt project to pitch more than 160 innings next year, so adding a fourth (Burnes?) to that group would lift the team in many ways.

I believe, more than anything, the state of future pitching free agent classes is why the Jays are so aggressive in the market this winter. If the Jays are dead-set on staying competitive for the next few years (I have my concerns about how realistic that is, but alas) this year’s pitching market is a MUST.

If you look ahead to the coming free-agent classes for starters, Toronto’s current interest in Burnes, Fried, and the other top arms makes a lot more sense. This winter’s pitching free agent class was exceptionally strong — with Cy Young candidates and real upside plus depth. But, the same can’t be said for the next few years. Next winter’s projected class won’t feature much past Dylan Cease and the 2026 class projects to be exceptionally thin beyond Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet (who could be signed, injured, or both by then).

With the Jays needing pitching help both in 2025 and beyond, this is the free-agent class to strike in. Even if that doesn’t mean signing Burnes, mid-tier guys like Sean Manaea or Jack Flaherty could be comparable to some of the most expensive arms in future offseasons.