Blue Jays: To extend or not to extend Shane Bieber
Photo credit: © Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
Nov 29, 2025, 14:30 ESTUpdated: Nov 29, 2025, 14:12 EST
Early in the off-season, Shane Bieber shocked the baseball world when he opted into his player option for the 2026 season.
This year, he’ll earn $16 million before entering free agency after the season ends. Bieber opting in made the Toronto Blue Jays’ off-season slightly easier, because instead of needing two starters, they only needed one. Wednesday’s signing of Dylan Cease solidified their rotation, at least for now.
By signing Cease, the Blue Jays have at least two starters locked in for their 2027 rotation. Cease signed a seven-year deal, and Trey Yesavage will have five additional seasons of team control. José Berríos could opt out of his contract, but that doesn’t seem likely. Bieber and Kevin Gausman, who the Blue Jays should also consider extending, are two starters who’ll hit the market barring any re-signings.
There’s a strong case to extend Bieber, especially if the Blue Jays believe he can get back to his pre-injury form. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Bieber had a 1.63 ERA and 2.07 FIP in 77.1 innings pitched, winning the American League Cy Young. The following two seasons, Bieber produced a 2.97 ERA and 2.92 FIP in 296.2 innings pitched, with a 27.8 K% and 5.8 BB%.
Unfortunately, he pitched just 128 innings in 2023 with less-than-ideal results, and then required Tommy John surgery after just two starts in 2024. Those starts were his last with the Cleveland Guardians, as they traded the starter to the Blue Jays before the 2025 trade deadline for pitching prospect Khal Stephen.
Upon returning from Tommy John surgery, Bieber authored a 3.57 ERA and 4.47 FIP in 40.1 innings pitched, with a 23.3 K% and 4.4 BB% in 40.1 innings pitched. The 30-year-old’s postseason was a mixed bag, producing several strong starts but getting roughed around in a few and giving up the game-winning home run in Game 7 of the World Series. As a whole, Bieber finished the playoffs with a 3.86 ERA and 4.26 FIP in 18.2 innings pitched, with a 21.7 K% and 7.2 BB%.
There’s risk involved for both parties when it comes to extensions. Bieber has missed significant time in 2021, 2023, 2024, and 2025 due to injuries. There’s no telling how much time he’ll miss if the Jays extend him, but it’s not a good sign. Moreover, who knows if Bieber will return to the form he showed before the 2023 season?
On Bieber’s end, if he has a good 2026 season, he stands to lose money if he signs an extension early. Granted, that goes both ways because he stands to lose money if he has a rough season, if he doesn’t sign an extension.
All that being said, the Jays and Bieber will probably let the 2026 season play out and go from there. It’ll be a big season in determining if Bieber returns to the front-end-of-the-rotation starter he was in the past, or a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Surely, they’ll have interest in reuniting with him at the conclusion of the 2026 season.
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. She can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.