For the first time this season, the Toronto Blue Jays face an American League East opponent on the road.

They’ve been playing better the past two weeks, and they’ll have to continue that into a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays. Thanks to a return to Tropicana Field and a 21-12 record, the Rays sit second in the division, just a game and a half behind the New York Yankees.

This’ll be the first time the Blue Jays play at Tropicana Field since late in the 2024 season due to Hurricane Milton. Their games at the Rays’ home stadium last season, George M. Steinbrenner Field, didn’t go so well. They finished 2-5, including a sweep in late May.

The Jays are in tough against the Rays’ starter Nick Martinez, at least at a superficial glance. Among 71 qualified starting pitchers, Martinez’s 1.70 ERA is the fourth-best in Major League Baseball. He also happens to have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate, 16.3%, among qualified starters. This season, Martinez has given up 28 hits, three of which are home runs, but has stranded  91.5% of the batters that have reached (LOB%).

That’s not a sustainable metric, especially given Martinez’s track record. Only two qualified pitchers have a higher LOB% than Martinez. One of which is José Soriano, who has stranded all batters who’ve reached this season. The Blue Jays found success against Soriano, well, as much success against a pitcher who has a 0.84 ERA in 42.2 innings pitched, managing seven hits. They just couldn’t string them together.

Anyway, Martinez does a good job at not issuing free passes and limiting hard contact, but has a sub-40 ground ball percentage. More than 42% of the balls put in play end in a fly out, and that’s been the case for the last three seasons. He’s due for a bad outing, and hopefully that’ll be on Monday.

Eric Lauer is no stranger to bad outings this season. Before his last outing on Wednesday, Lauer gave up at least three runs in his three prior starts. Fortunately, he threw four and one-third innings with on earned run in his most recent start on Wednesday against the Boston Red Sox. With the Blue Jays’ rotation as injured as it is, Lauer needs to string together some strong starts here.

Martinez is a righty, which means the Jays will have a handful of left-handed hitters in the lineup. Batting lead-off for his second consecutive start is Yohendrick Piñango, who went 1-3 in Sunday’s series finale against the Twins.

Following Piñango is Kazuma Okamoto, who hit second in Sunday’s game. He trashed the Twins, hitting four home runs in the four-game series. In the last two weeks, the Blue Jays are 9-5, and Okamoto is a big reason for that thanks to a .280/.379/.720 slash line with seven in 58 plate appearances for a 196 wRC+. He’s legit.

Hopefully, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. starts slugging the ball soon, but he had a good series in Minneapolis. As did Jesús Sánchez, who bats cleanup. Daulton Varsho (batting sixth) and Andrés Giménez (batting eighth) are the other two lefties in the lineup. Switch-hitter Brandon Valenzuela returns to the lineup, batting ninth. Ernie Clement and Myles Straw bat fifth and seventh respectively.

Unfortunately, George Springer isn’t in the lineup and his status is unclear for the series opener. That said, let’s set up Monday evening’s game against the Rays!

Toronto Blue Jays – Eric Lauer: 1-3 record, 6.00 ERA, 27 IP, 20 SO, 13 BB

Tampa Bay Rays – Nick Martinez: 2-1 record, 1.70 ERA, 37 IP, 24 SO, 9 BB