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The Blue Jays’ hitting philosophy needs to change this off-season
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Photo credit: © Chris Jones-Imagn Images
Cynthia Ryley Delaney
Sep 22, 2026, 08:30 EDTUpdated: Sep 22, 2026, 08:36 EDT
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October 8th, 2022 is a day that changed the course of the Toronto Blue Jays.
If that date sounds familiar, it’s the day that the Blue Jays blew an 8-1 lead and 9-5 lead to the Seattle Mariners in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card Series, ending their season. In that game, the Mariners scored four runs in an inning twice, and both can be pinned on one outfielder: Raimel Tapia.
After Whit Merrifield was hit by a pitch to load the bases in the bottom of the fifth, Tapia came in as a defensive replacement in left field. It was a long inning, the Jays scored four runs, and Kevin Gausman’s command was shaky. But against the third batter, he forced a shallow fly out, which Tapia failed to catch. 
That would’ve been the first out of the inning, and Gausman proceeded to get the next two batters before Tim Mayza entered with the bases loaded. His third pitch went over the left centre wall, and the Mariners made it 8-5.
The Jays added an insurance run in the bottom of the seventh, but it didn’t matter. Up 9-5, Anthony Bass got a fly ball, but Tapia was too far out of range to catch it, then failed to cut it off, giving the Mariners a lead-off double. That was the start of a four-run inning, and eventually a season-ending loss.
In 2022, the Blue Jays hit 200 home runs, seventh-most in Major League baseball. They were also productive with runners in scoring position, slashing .258/.339/.433, ranking 12th or higher in all three categories. Their 113 wRC+ ranked sixth. Hell, their offence was arguably the best in baseball the season prior, smacking 262 long-balls, by far the most in MLB, while striking out just 20.1 percent of the time, the second-lowest K%.
This game featured quite a few whatifs, but what it did was force change, and not for the better. Tapia never suited up for the Blue Jays again, not all too surprising given his role. But about a month and a half later, Teoscar Hernández was traded to the Mariners for Adam Macko and Erik Swanson. 
Before the end of 2022, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was traded alongside Gabriel Moreno to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Daulton Varsho, essentially re-tooling the outfield on the fly to focus on defence. That was cemented with Kevin Kiermaier’s signing that off-season.
However, these trades also had a secondary impact that even the 2026 Blue Jays are feeling: the loss of power and a fun offence. The 2023 off-season also saw the Blue Jays hire Don Mattingly, who had an interesting tenure, to say the least.
All that being said, the past four seasons of having strong outfield defence (not including 2026) and small ball approach has had varying levels of success. Simply put, a change is in order before the start of the 2027 season.

The four years of small-ball approach

Dismantling an incredibly entertaining offence that hits long balls despite defensive issues runs its risk. These past four seasons have had a wild variation of results, ranging from fantastic (2025) to absolutely unacceptable (2026). To show this, let’s use percentiles, ranging from the first percentile to the 100th percentile.
I don’t think it’s a hot take to say that the 2026 offence is a first percentile result with their small ball offence. With a final wild card up for grabs, the Blue Jays offence has stunk it up in September, which is basically the story of the season.
Remember when the Blue Jays hit 262 home runs all the way back in 2021? Well, they’ve managed to go deep just 149 times this season, the second-fewest in Major League Baseball. Funnily enough, they rank second in strikeout rate, exactly where they ranked in 2021.
The biggest hindrance to their success and my happiness is hitting with runners in scoring position. In 2022, they were a top 10 team, this season, they are damn well near the bottom. With a runner at second or beyond, the Jays are slashing just .245/.314/.383. The average isn’t too bad, ranking tied for 20th, but the on-base percentage ranks second-worst and the slug ranks fourth-worst. Their 92 wRC+ is tied for third-worst as well.
It’s pretty easy to tell what is happening here. Instead of striking out in an attempt to hit the ball over the fence, the Jays are rolling over weakly and failing to take walks. It’s just bad baseball, through and through.
Now look, a lot of this likely stems from what happened in the 2025 World Series. Even as someone who writes about this team for a living, it’s heartbreaking to think about and I legitimately still have nightmares about how that game was lost. I can’t imagine actually being involved as a player.
That 2025 team was magical and until the day I die, that rune will be engrained in my mind. A big reason for their success was the hitting, the 100th percentile of the small-ball, strong defence approach. It wasn’t home runs that got the job done, as their 191 home runs ranked 13th-most.
Instead, it was the ability to hit with runners in scoring position. They batted .292 with at least one runner in scoring position, the highest batting average since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. The 2025 Blue Jays also had a .361 on-base percentage (second-best) and a .449 slugging percentage (third-best). Their 122 wRC+ was good for second-best in MLB, and they struck out just 17.8 percent of the time, the best rate in baseball.
It’s truly a shame that the 2025 Blue Jays didn’t win the World Series in what will possibly go down as one of the best World Series of this generation. What makes it even worse, on top of how they lost, is how this season has gone and the fact that the 2027 season may not even happen.
The 2025 and 2026 seasons are the polar extremes to this approach, but what about 2023 and 2024 Blue Jays? Honestly, they had pretty similar results offensively. This is basically the 50th percentile, or average.
By far the biggest difference was the long ball, as the 2023 Blue Jays hit 188 home runs (16th-most) and the 2024 Blue Jays hit 156 home runs (26th-most). The 2023 Blue Jays made the playoffs, but the 2024 Blue Jays sold ahead of the trade deadline and finished with a worse record, a contributing factor to their offensive struggles.
Other than the home runs, the two teams had a pretty similar offensive profile. Both teams finished with the sixth-best strikeout rate and ranked around average while hitting with runners in scoring position. In 2023, they slashed .260/.340/.390 for a 101 wRC+ with RISP. The next season saw them slash .256/.334/.393 with RISP, good for a 105 wRC+.
What caused the 2024 Jays to miss the playoffs was the opposite of what happened in 2023: their bullpen. Tim Mayza, Swanson, and Jordan Romano were a dominant high-leverage trio in 2023. All three struggled in 2024, with Mayza being cut mid-season, Romano spending most of the season injured, and Swanson having a better second half around when the Blue Jays sold before the trade deadline.
It’s best to put it this way. Since turning to a small-ball approach, the Jays have had one season that should’ve resulted in their third World Series in franchise history, a heartbreaking season, and two seasons that relied heavily on their pitchers. We’ve seen what this offence can do at its best, but its best is also a clear outlier.
There’s a lot wrong with the 2026 Blue Jays. Their offence is the biggest offender, but significant injuries to their rotation hasn’t helped in the slightest, which in turn has hampered their bullpen. Where do they go from here offensively? I’m not sure, but I do know something has to change.
Cynthia Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, DFOEdmonton, and DFOCalgary. She can be followed on Twitter @CynthiaRDelaney.
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