It’s been a rough return from the injured list for Shane Bieber, whose stuff hasn’t looked quite the same ahead of his fourth start of the 2026 season — and first career outing at Petco Park.

The 31-year-old Bieber, who opened this season on the IL with right elbow inflammation before returning on June 23, enters Friday’s series opener against the San Diego Padres with an ERA that’s ballooned to 9.00 and an even worse FIP of 9.34 across 13.0 innings thus far. He’s been unable to keep balls in the yard, having already surrendered six home runs in half as many starts.

There have also been plenty of concerns surrounding his erratic command, resulting in seven walks compared to only nine strikeouts in that span. As such, he’s currently been worth half a win below replacement level, according to FanGraphs, and could badly use a performance boost heading into the All-Star break.

Metrically, Bieber’s arsenal hasn’t ticked back up just yet in ’26, as he owns a career-worst 89 Stuff+ grade in his return. Of his five pitches, none has declined more than his four-seamer — the veteran starter’s primary offering — which has seen its Stuff+ descend from a 94 grade last season to 91 this year, the lowest it’s been in three years.

Much of that, unfortunately, has been a byproduct of Bieber’s diminished velocity — his four-seamer is averaging 92.0 m.p.h. through three starts, just over half a tick slower than 2025. In two of those outings, it only averaged 91.9 m.p.h. — his slowest post-Tommy John surgery reading.

Even more concerning is that his fastball hasn’t reached 93 m.p.h. or higher more than four times this season, topping out at 93.9 thus far. Last season, for example, he achieved that mark 70 times — in the regular season alone — and reached 94 or above in five separate instances.

Sitting in the low 90s is usually the danger zone for Bieber’s four-seamer, which opposing hitters are slugging .750 against this season, producing a 96.7 m.p.h. average exit velocity against it — the highest of his career.

When the veteran right-hander has a feel for the strike zone, however, he has found ways to survive without his “A” stuff. Many of the game’s greats usually do. The only thing is, though, his command hasn’t been anywhere close to sharp since returning from the IL, as his heater currently features a career-worst 44.6 per cent in-zone rate.

Jumping ahead 0-1 is crucial for pitchers who rely on pitchability over stuff, such as Bieber. Last season, he did an excellent job of gaining count leverage, posting a 61.0 per cent first-pitch strike rate — a figure now down to just 51.6 per cent this year.

It’s worth remembering that this is Bieber’s first full post-TJ season, which follows the shortest off-season of his professional career and a spring training hijacked by forearm/elbow soreness. He was also rushed back to the Blue Jays’ rotation out of necessity amid Max Scherzer’s second consecutive injury-plagued campaign. So, it’s understandable that he wouldn’t be at his best out of the gate.

Bieber still needs a bit more time to work through these issues. Had he been healthy at the start of this season, he’d been ironing things out in April rather than July, and that would’ve provided him considerably more margin for error. But since we’re already past the midway point, he no longer has that luxury.

For a Blue Jays rotation that ranks 24th in starters’ ERA (5.30) since June 1, they need last year’s version of Shane Bieber to rise to the surface, and soon.

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