Where the Blue Jays stand in the 2027 MLB Draft Lottery
Photo credit: © Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Sep 29, 2026, 20:30 EDTUpdated: Sep 29, 2026, 20:31 EDT
It’s going to be an interesting off-season for the Toronto Blue Jays.
Going from nearly winning it all in 2025 to a potential lockout in 2027, the 2026 season was a disappointing one, far more than their awful season in 2024. The wild card was up for the taking in September, and they were even in the final wild card early in the month, but they finished the final month with a 11-13 record.
That’s bad news for the Blue Jays, as they land right in the mushy middle. The 2024 Blue Jays team was bad, but at least they got a high draft pick out of it. However, the same may not be said for this year’s team heading into the 2027 MLB Draft, as they sit with the 12th-best odds to land the first overall pick.
A lot can change before the start of next season with the ongoing Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations, so nothing is set in stone. But since the Blue Jays are likely over the second Competitive Balance Tax threshold, their 2027 first round pick will drop back 10 spots unless they finish with a top six pick.
The likelihood of that is rather low. Thanks to the 12-best odds, the Jays only have a 10.3 percent chance of jumping into the top six, otherwise known as “winning the lottery”. Their chances of landing the first overall pick is even slimmer, just 1.04 percent odds.
However, the good news is that the odds have been in the favour of teams with the odds this low to land the first overall pick. In each of the four years since the implementation, at least one team with 11th-or-worst odds have moved into a top six pick.
Back in December 2022, the Twins had just 8.2 percent odds of moving to the top six of the 2023 MLB Draft, but they ended up landing the fifth overall pick. In the 2024 MLB Draft lottery, the Cincinnati Reds had even lower odds of landing a top-six pick, 7.8 percent, but ended up moving to second-overall.
The Mariners had a 7.5 percent chance to move into the top six, and they landed the fifth overall pick. As for the Kansas City Royals in the 2026 MLB Draft Lottery, they had the 13th-best odds, though the odds to land picks two-through-six are unlisted. They ended up picking sixth.
As poor as the odds stack up in the Jays’ favour, teams with odds this low tend to move up. The Jays desperately need this to go their way, because if they don’t land a top six pick, their pick will come in the early 20s, a big drop off in a talent’s potential.
All this being said, the Draft Lottery may not even be the same, if it even happens. Since being implemented in 2022, the lottery has been hosted in the annual Winter Meetings, which fall in early December. If the league enters a lockout, it will begin on December 1st. Who knows what’ll happen after that.
Cynthia Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, DFOEdmonton, and DFOCalgary. She can be followed on Twitter @CynthiaRDelaney.
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