Even after a disappointing stretch before the Seattle Mariners’ series, the Toronto Blue Jays are still very much in the playoff race as no team fighting for a spot has taken control

The Blue Jays haven’t been the dominant team like they were last season, but they’re still in the race thanks to seven consecutive series wins (if we don’t count the makeup game against the Chicago Cubs on August 6). After two series losses, the Blue Jays swept the Mariners.

Heading into September, the Blue Jays are 1.5 games away from securing the last AL Wild Card spot. With at least five or six teams eyeing to punch the ticket to the playoffs, the Blue Jays have no choice but to have an exceptional September to do the improbable.

Here are three key series that will decide the Blue Jays’ playoff destiny.

Once upon a time, the Cleveland Guardians were leading the AL Central. Now, they’ve ceded that spot to the Chicago White Sox and are fighting to defend the last Wild Card spot.

Don’t let the Guardians’ decline fool you. This team has excellent pitching from top to bottom, even if their bullpen isn’t as elite as it once was back when they had Emmanuel Clase. Their trade for former Blue Jay Foster Griffin only strengthened their otherwise robust starting rotation.

The Guardians rank sixth in saves (40), seventh in ERA (3.75) and 11th in WHIP (1.26) among all 30 MLB teams. This is a group that doesn’t allow many runs, which makes up for their lack of power in the lineup.

Offensively, their biggest difference-maker is their pesky and persistent plate appearances. This style of offence contributed to the team ranking fifth in walks. They also rank seventh in stolen bases, indicating that they are a menace on the basepaths once they get on base. This offence will test the overworked Blue Jays’ pitching core, which is why this could turn into a more trying series than expected.

This series against Cleveland is crucial because both teams are fighting for the last Wild Card spot in the league. Winning this series will move the Blue Jays to within a half game back of the spot the Guardians a holding. A series sweep means they outright pass them. On the other hand, losing this series would be a major set back for the Blue Jays’ playoff aspirations.

The last time the Blue Jays faced the Guardians in April, they won the series; they just have to replicate that success for the sake of their playoff fortunes. A series win gives them an important tiebreaker.

The Baltimore Orioles have once again been a letdown this year, following a mediocre 2025 season. The issue for the 2026 Orioles is that they haven’t excelled in pitching or hitting, as they rank generally middle to bottom in most categories out of all 30 teams.

However, the Orioles outrank the Blue Jays in most offensive categories. Baltimore ranks 13th in OBP (.318), 17th in OPS (.716) and 18th in slugging (.398). For comparison, Toronto ranks 26th in OBP (.308) and slugging (.382) and 27th in OPS (.690). The Orioles’ offence shouldn’t be underestimated; they are capable of doing enough damage to win games, especially if Toronto’s offence can’t consistently get on base or score runs.

The Orioles’ offence also ranks third in walks, demonstrating their willingness to remain patient at every at-bat to give the team a chance to score. The Blue Jays’ pitching staff has grappled with walks all season long, and against a team like the Orioles, who are more prone to take walks, they would have to figure out a way to induce weaker contact or strikeouts to avoid sticky situations.

Where the Blue Jays can take advantage of the Orioles is their pitching. Baltimore ranks 19th in ERA (4.19), 21st in WHIP (1.34) and 23rd in K/99 (8.04) – this allows Toronto’s lineup to apply the offensive approach it used against the Mariners recently.

The Blue Jays took every opportunity to make the most of their baserunning during that series and showed off their home run power as George Springer and Alejandro Kirk heated up at the plate. That kind of approach is what the Blue Jays will need to win this series against the Orioles in September.

Every series in September looms large, but this series and the other series against the Orioles will be even more critical because these two teams are also fighting for fourth place in the AL East. Whoever falls in the two series will almost be guaranteed to finish last in the AL East, as well as ruining playoff hopes.

There’s a lot at stake for both teams with a razor-thin margin. This will be the pressure-cooker series of the year, at least for those involved in the AL playoff.

The Texas Rangers are in the mix for the last AL Wild Card Spot as well. Entering Monday, the Blue Jays sit a game and a half behind the Guardians, while the Orioles sit a game back. The Rangers are in the vicinity as well, sitting two games behind the Guardians.

That said, the Rangers haven’t been able to reach the glory days of their World Series-winning year. Their offence has never reached the same level, and this year they have been pedestrian, especially without having Corey Seager in the lineup on a regular basis. They currently rank 14th in OBP (.317), 17th in home runs (154), 20th in OPS (.713) and 21st in slugging (.397). In particular, the Rangers only rank 27th in RBIs (533), showcasing their general woes in scoring overall.

But Seager’s presence in the lineup is the X-factor for this offence. When Seager heats up, so does the entire Rangers’ lineup. Which is why Blue Jays pitchers have to pitch carefully because this offence can make a huge dent if its star player finds his footing. If there’s any consolation, the Rangers don’t take walks often – they rank 18th in walks – which should help Blue Jays get out of any messy innings relatively easily.

The Rangers’ pitching isn’t what it used to be, as they rank 12th in K/9 (8.66), 18th in WHIP (1.31) and 22nd in ERA (4.28). On paper, the Blue Jays should have more opportunities to score runs so long as Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi or MacKenzie Gore aren’t in their best shape on the mound. These three pitchers have had their moments, but if they were to return to their 2023 or 2024 form, the Blue Jays may not have much luck scoring at all.

The rise of Jacob Latz as a lockdown reliever is something to watch as well. Latz currently ranks sixth among all MLB relievers behind Mason Miller, Louis Varland, Adrian Morejon, Jhoan Duran and Trevor Megill. Facing Latz at any point in this series wouldn’t bode well for the Blue Jays, who have a weaker offence and have had lower-quality contact this season.

This is an all-around even match-up since the Rangers grade out slightly better in hitting while the Blue Jays come out on top in pitching. Both teams are in the Wild Card hunt as they look to September. If they win a similar number of games up until they face one another towards the end of September, this will be a go-big-or-go-home series that will determine who gets into the playoffs in the end.

Thanks to a four-game sweep in late-June, the Rangers hold the tiebreaker no matter what.