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Trade Targets: The Cardinals look to shed payroll this off-season
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Photo credit: © D. Ross Cameron - USA Today
Ryley Delaney
Oct 31, 2024, 18:00 EDTUpdated: Oct 31, 2024, 20:09 EDT
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The St. Louis Cardinals could be looking to cut payroll this off-season.
Last month, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Cardinals plan on shopping starting pitcher Sonny Gray in an attempt to cut payroll. Of course, he’s not the only player on the Cardinals with a large salary, and there are quite a few players the Blue Jays could target this off-season.
The Blue Jays and Cardinals frequently trade with one another, famously trading three separate times before the 2023 trade deadline, with Toronto acquiring Génesis Cabrera, Jordan Hicks, and Paul DeJong while giving up prospects Sammy Hernandez, Matt Svanson, Adam Kloffenstein, and Sem Robberse.
Not just that, but during the 2022-23 off-season before the Jays traded Gabriel Moreno, the Cardinals were rumoured to be interested in Danny Jansen, while the Jays were rumoured to be interested in one of many of the Cardinals outfielders.
Before we get to who may be available for the Blue Jays, let’s take a look at the 2024 season for the Cardinals.

A brief overview of the 2024 season for the Cardinals

Since being swept in the National League Championship Series by the Washington Nationals in 2019, the Cardinals have made the postseason three times, winning a single game in back in 2020 and failing to make it out of the Wild Card round in those three seasons.
The 2023 season was horrendous for the Cardinals, as they finished with a National League Central worst 71-91 record. There was an improvement in 2024, as they finished with an 83-79 record, second in the division and six games behind the final Wild Card spot.
Still, it’s becoming evidently clear the core isn’t the one that will win them a World Series, especially since Paul Goldschmidt is now a free agent. There are still quite a few young players looking for a chance to play, so we’ll look at veterans who could be on the move.

Willson Contreras

Instead of trading for Danny Jansen to replace the recently retired Yadier Molina during the 2022-23 off-season, the Cardinals went and signed Willson Contreras.
The 32-year-old catcher was the Cardinals’ best hitter in 2024, slashing .262/.380/.468 with 15 home runs in 358 plate appearances, along with a 12.6 BB% and a 26.8 K% for a 140 wRC+ and a 2.7 fWAR. In 2023, Contreras slashed .264/.358/.467 with 20 home runs in 495 plate appearances with a 10.3 BB% and a 22.4 K% for a 127 wRC+.
Contreras had a rough defensive season in 2023, posting -8 Defensive Runs Saved and -3 Fielding Run Value in 764 innings behind the plate. However, he was average for the Cardinals in 2024, with 0 DRS and FRV.
As for his contract, Contreras currently makes $18 million a season, with $17.5 million counting towards the luxury tax. He’ll get a payroll spike in 2027 as his salary is set to increase to $18.5 million, and he has a team option of $17.5 million for the 2028 season.
Acquiring Contreras is a way to replace Danny Jansen, as the 32-year-old has some pop in his bat. The Cardinals could be incentivized to move him as Iván Herrera is ready for a heavier workload.

Nolan Arenado

For a long time, the Blue Jays have been seeking a long-term solution for their third base position. One player from the Cardinals who could relieve that issue is Nolan Arenado.
In 2022, the third baseman slashed .293/.358/.533 with 30 home runs in 620 plate appearances for a 149 wRC+ and a 7.2 fWAR. Unfortunately, the rest of his Cardinals’ stint hasn’t been as good, posting a 106 wRC+ in 2023, and an even worse 102 wRC+ in 2024.
Last season, the 33-year-old slashed .272/.325/.493 with 16 home runs in 635 plate appearances. This was the fewest home runs he’s hit since his rookie season, with a minimum of 300 plate appearances.
Arenando’s glove is by far his best attribute though. Last season, he had 6 Defensive Runs Saved and 9 Outs Above Average in 1118.2 innings. This is down from his 2022 performance, where he had 19 DRS and 14 OAA. Still, Arenado is nominated for a Gold Glove (again) and if he wins, it will be the 11th of his career.
The big question regarding Arenando is are you going to get the 30+ home run and Platinum Glove defence player that he was before the 2023 season? If that’s the case, his $21 million salary in 2025 will be well worth it.
He’s under contract for three more seasons, with $25.556 million counting towards against the luxury tax. In 2026, he’ll make $16 million, dropping to $15 million in his final season in 2027. He also has deferred money through 2041, making $2-3 million each season which began in 2022. Further complicating matters is that Arenado has a no-trade clause.

Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray is another player the Blue Jays could target. Now, they don’t necessarily need a starting pitcher thanks to an already set rotation of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis, and Yariel Rodríguez. However, picking up a player who was nominated for a Cy Young in 2023 is not a bad idea.
Gray turned that terrific 2023 season into a three-year deal worth $75 million, or $25 million counting towards the luxury tax every year. In 2025, he’s set to make $25 million, before making $35 million in 2026. Whatever team has him after the 2026 season will have a club option, where he’ll have a $30 million salary if they opt-in. It’s safe to say that the Cardinals may have to throw in some cash in a hypothetical trade to pay off his enormous salary.
With that being said, was Gray’s performance in 2024 worth his contract? Last season, the 34-year-old had a 3.84 ERA and a 3.12 FIP in 166.1 innings pitched, with a 30.3 K% and a 5.8 BB%. While he wasn’t as good as he was in 2023, Gray is still a great #2 in the rotation.

Ryan Helsley

The biggest need aside from re-signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the Blue Jays this off-season is to drastically improve their bullpen. One such player who could do just that is the Cardinals’ closer, Ryan Helsley.
Last season, the 30-year-old righty pitched 66.1 innings, recording a 2.04 ERA and a 2.41 FIP, with a 29.7 K% and an 8.6 BB%. In 2023, Helsley had a 2.45 ERA and a 2.25 FIP in 36.2 innings pitched. Moreover, his 49 saves were the most of any closer in 2024, blowing just four opportunities all season.
According to Shi Davidi in December 2022, the Cardinals offered Helsley to the Jays for Jansen, with the Jays not agreeing to the trade. Well, Helsley may be available once again, as he’s in the final season of team control.
In MLB Trade Rumors’ arbitration projections, Helsley is projected to make $6.9 million, less than what Jordan Romano, who is also in his final season of arbitration, is set to make. Helsley will be a free agent after the 2025 season, so his cost would be less than what Danny Jansen was worth during the 2022-23 off-season.
As always, you can follow me on Twitter @Ryley_L_D. 

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