Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is having the best second half of any player in MLB history

Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
By Zach Laing
Aug 15, 2024, 18:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 15, 2024, 17:44 EDT
Vladimir Guerreo Jr. Willie Mays. Joe DiMaggio. Lou Gehrig.
They’re not a quadruplet you’d often think would be referenced in the same sentence, but these four are among nine big leaguers who have put together as impressive of a streak as the Toronto Blue Jays slugger has over his last 26 games.
As highlighted by the excellent Sarah Langs, Guerrero Jr. is the latest to have over 25 extra-base hits and a .450 batting average or better over a 26-game span in a single season. In fact, Vladdy is only the second to do so in the last 66 years, with the only other since Mays did so in 1958 was then Houston Astros outfielder Richard Hidalgo in 2000.
The full list features the likes of Paul Waner (1927), Chick Hafey (1928), Al Simmons (1931), Joe Cronin (1933), Gehrig (1936), DiMaggio (1937), Mays and Hidalgo. What separates Guerrero Jr. from a few of these players is that his run has come at a time when league average OPS is among the lowest of any other years these players had their runs in.
2024’s .244 league batting average heading into Thursday’s games is the lowest of any of these players, with only 1958, when Cronin had his run, being close at .258. Adding to that, Guerrero Jr. has hit a dozen home runs in these 26 games, tying with Hidalgo, DiMaggio, Gehrig and Mays for most of the nine aforementioned players.
But that’s not even the most impressive part of what Guerrero Jr. is doing right now. In fact, his numbers in the second half of the 2024 season are the best of any player in MLB history since 1901 with over 109 plate appearances, which is how many the slugger has as of Thursday.
Yes, you read that right.
While the sample size of 25 games is roughly a third of most players, his 1.480 OPS since the All-Star Break is better than any other player, and one of nine seasons, and five players who had an OPS greater than 1.400. The only others were Aaron Judge (2024), Barry Bonds (2001, 2002, 2004), Jeff Bagwell (1994), Ted Williams (1957) and Babe Ruth (1920).
It’s not just OPS where Guerrero Jr. is leading, either. His .457 batting average is tied with Harry Heilmann’s 1927 season, while his .957 slugging percentage stands tall above the likes of Bagwell’s ’94 run, where he posted a .916.
Among the top 25 second-half runs among players over 109 plate appearances, ranking by OPS, his 11 percent walk rate is the lowest, while his 9.2 percent strikeout rate ranks 15th.
Here’s a look at that list of players, which also features the New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, who are having strong starts to their 2nd half of 2024:

The important caveat through all of this is that the sample size is pretty small, and there’s still lots of baseball left to play in the second half of this 2024 campaign. With 41 games left in the season, it’s more likely than not that there’s some drop-off in his production at some point or another, but it’s hard to say exactly when that will be.
It seems like every game, no matter the opponent or venue, Guerrero Jr. is demolishing baseballs. His run has helped bring some life to the Blue Jays. In the first half of the season, the team posted a .458 winning percentage, 24th of 30 teams in the league, but in the second half, that’s risen to a .520 rate, 15th in the league.
The chances of the Blue Jays making the playoffs are beyond slim, with FanGraphs giving them a 0.3 percent chance of making the playoffs and Baseball-Reference a 0.5 percent chance. Their beyond sluggish start to the year has ultimately bit them, which considering the run Guerrero Jr. is on, is truly a shame.
Projecting for 76.1 wins, with their current 57-64 record, according to FanGraphs, the Jays would need to go on a historic run to even sniff the postseason, needing 33 wins in their final 41 games to even get to 90 wins, which still might not even be enough for a Wild Card spot.
It’s a shame that Guerrero Jr.’s run is likely to go to waste when it comes to the bigger picture of the team, but it’s one that might pay off dividends for the slugger down the road. He’s been in arbitration in each of the last two years, and while he has another year left following this season, he is slated to become a free agent in 2026.
This might be the run that he needed to secure a long-term contract with the Jays so he can remain in Toronto for the rest of his career, as he’s stated a desire for in the past.
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.
