Weighing the pros and cons of Louis Varland starting for the Blue Jays in 2026

Photo credit: © Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Aug 19, 2025, 12:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 19, 2025, 06:10 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays‘ rotation after the 2025 season still has some question marks.

Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer are both set to become free agents, while Shane Bieber has a player option that he may not elect. Of players currently in the rotation, that would leave just Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Eric Lauer. Who knows how Alek Manoah will perform once he returns to the big leagues, and Trey Yesavage could debut in the Jays’ rotation as soon as next season.

It’s clear that the starting rotation will be an area of need in the off-season, but the Blue Jays could have another internal option: Louis Varland.

The case for Louis Varland to start in 2026

Like many big league relievers, Varland began his career as a starter. That’s how he was primarily used in the minor leagues after being drafted, and his first five games in the big leagues were in the rotation back in 2022.

Five games is an incredibly small sample size, but he had a 3.81 ERA and 4.30 FIP in 26 innings pitched in that span. Of the 17 games he appeared in during the 2023 season, 10 of them were starts. He didn’t find the same success, posting a 5.30 ERA and 5.49 FIP in 56 innings pitched.

Varland also pitched in the rotation in 2024, where his numbers got even worse. In 32.1 innings of work, the Minnesota-native had a 6.40 ERA and 6.35 FIP, as he allowed nine home runs in just seven starts.

So, why should he return to the rotation? Well, Varland has a starter’s pitch-mix. Varland features a four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a curveball, a slider, and a changeup. Since moving to the bullpen full-time in 2025, Varland has had a 55.1 groundball percentage, which tends to help starting pitchers.

The stuff is nasty, and the Jays aren’t particularly brimming to the rim with internal options, so why not give him a run of games as a starter? This is something they did with Bowden Francis last season, as he was their long man in 2023. Francis’ 2024 season didn’t start great, but after the trade deadline, Francis had one of the most dominant stretches for a starter in recent memory.

The case against Louis Varland starting in 2026

Using Francis as an example is a double-edged sword. Francis was great out of the pen, and while he was great in the rotation in the final two months of the 2024 season, he’s struggled mightily when healthy in 2025. If he were kept in the bullpen as a bulk reliever, he could’ve built off that success.

The same argument can be made for Varland. For the first time in his big league career, he’s found success. This season, the 27-year-old has a 2.37 ERA and 3.24 FIP in 57 innings pitched, with a 24.3 K% and 7 BB%. If it’s not broke, why fix it?

Not just that, but a big reason for his success is the tick up in his velocity. After averaging 94-96 from 2022 until 2024, Varland is averaging 98.1 mph on his heater this season, and has reached triple-digits with the Blue Jays, the only pitcher who has done so. No doubt that velocity will drop if he returns to the rotation.

Moving Varland to the rotation is a high-risk, high-reward type of move, as messing with what has made him successful this season could lead to problems down the road. However, if he finds the same success as a starter, the Jays get a controllable pitcher with nasty stuff in the rotation.

Whatever the Blue Jays decide to do moving forward is anyone’s best guess, but it’s worth noting that Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said that the team is open to making him a starter.

Mitch Bannon

@MitchBannon

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Atkins mentioned liking Louis Varland for years, before he turned into a full-time RP. He'll slot into the pen this year, but #BlueJays are open to SP possibility in the future: "We're open to that, but want to explore that with him. Want to get to know him on a personal level."