The 2025 campaign hasn’t started exactly how the Blue Jays would have drawn it up, but thankfully, there have been some encouraging signs. One of those positive developments has been the good health and fairly solid performance from Bo Bichette through the team’s first 25 games, as he entered Friday night slashing .296/.336/.370 with eight doubles. The only downside is he’s yet to hit a home run so far, which has been an unfortunate theme for the top three in John Schneider’s lineup at this early stage of the season.

It’s certainly a positive development that Bichette looks more like the 2x All-Star that has been among the better hitters in the American League since his debut in 2019, even if he hasn’t hit any home runs thus far. Bichette has twice led the AL in hits in 2021 and 2022, but he battled injuries throughout last season and finished with a slash line of just .225/.277/.322 with just four home runs and 31 RBI over 81 games played.

Once considered one of the best young shortstops in baseball, Bichette’s value is a very debatable topic, and that’s an interesting place to be as the 27-year-old approaches free agency for the first time at the end of this season. The Blue Jays could choose to make him an extension offer before things reach that stage, as they did by agreeing to a 14-year, $500 million mega-contract with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. Still, I think it’s far more likely that both parties let this season play out and reevaluate things later this fall. The reality is, trying to place a value on Bichette’s next contract is a difficult task right now.

On the plus side, you’re looking at a 27-year-old who has been consistently successful throughout his first seven years in the big leagues, except last year’s injury-riddled output. He’s shown himself to be capable of hitting around .300, and at his best, he also hits for extra-base power, topping out with career highs of 29 home runs in 2021 and 43 doubles in 2022. That level of hitter doesn’t grow on trees, and getting that kind of production from a key position like shortstop is a real plus.

On the other hand, there are questions about Bichette’s future, whether that happens with the Blue Jays or another franchise. To begin with, he’s long been criticized as a below-average defender at shortstop, and that’s unlikely to change as he gets older. To be fair, I think there’s still room for growth at his current age, but there’s a good chance he starts to show defensive regression before the end of his next contract. It’s possible that his next team, even including the Blue Jays, would want him to consider a switch to second base, or potentially elsewhere. His bat could play pretty much anywhere on the diamond, but I’m not sure that many teams will view him as a long-term solution at shortstop into his 30s.

There’s also the question of how much power he’s going to hit for going forward. This season, he’s already shown that he’s back to being a potential .300 hitter, but can he still add some numbers in the home run column? The easy answer is yes, but after only hitting four home runs in 2024 (granted in just 81 games and while battling some injuries), it’s a bit of a concerning trend that he’s gone without a home run through the first 25 games. I’m not hitting the panic button at the moment by any means, but I’d be watching nervously if I were working as Bichette’s agent.

If that agent is selling Bichette as a 27-year-old, .300 hitter with 20-30 home run power, and one capable of playing shortstop at an acceptable level, there’s a certain level of compensation that comes with that profile. On the other hand, if Bichette is viewed as a below-average defender who doesn’t hit for much power anymore, and still strikes out a fair bit, that’s a whole other thing.

If the Florida native has the kind of season that I certainly still believe he’s capable of, then I don’t think it’s out of the question for his camp to seek something like the $ 7-year, $175 million contract Marcus Semien secured with the Rangers a few years ago. Or the 7 years and $177 million that  Dansby Swanson landed from the Cubs. If he has another season where he battles injuries and doesn’t show much power at the plate, then what? In a worst-case scenario, I could see a short-term, “show me” type of contract situation if things don’t go the right way (or he could always sign the qualifying offer).

Looking at the market for free agent shortstops over the last five years or so, I think it’s safe to say that Bichette won’t be landing a contract like what Corey Seager (10 years, $325 million), Trea Turner (11 years, $300 million), or Xander Bogaerts (11 years, $280 million) received from their current teams. Something more like the Swanson or Semien deals feels more like the top end, or perhaps the 6-year, $140 million contracts received by Trevor Story and Javier Baez ahead of the 2023 campaign. But in my mind, Bichette will only find himself in that ballpark as a free agent if he has a Bo-like 2025 performance, and there’s a lot of season left to define that value.

The Blue Jays may have cost themselves many millions of dollars by waiting until this year to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but it’s possible the opposite ends up playing out in Bo Bichette’s favour by the time he signs his next contract. Until we see what Bichette can produce this year, it’s very tough to predict how this one plays out.

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