They have finally done it. The Blue Jays have been after Kevin Gausman forever it seems and on Sunday they landed their guy signing Gausman to a 5-Year $110 million contract.

It’s not hard to see why the Blue Jays coveted Gausman, he checks off so many boxes for this front office. First of all he is an ace. Gausman had a 2.81 ERA last season, supported by a 3.00 FIP and 3.28 xFIP. By <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/">FanGraphs</a> WAR he was worth 4.8 wins, ranking 10th among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings.
He struck out 227 batters against just 50 walks. He has swing and miss stuff, his 15.3% swinging-strike rate, was basically the same as Robbie Ray’s last season. Second, he is durable, having made at least 30 starts in four of the last five full seasons. His 192.0 innings pitched last year were the sixth most in baseball. This is something I think the Blue Jays have focused on. In a league where starters are pitching less and less the Blue Jays will have two pitchers (of just seven) in their rotation next season who threw 190 innings last season in Gausman and José Berríos.
Third, Gausman seems like a really good person.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Put some respect on this mans name! There are some people you play with in your career that are just genuinely amazing human beings. Gaus is one of those guys. The good guys do win and Toronto just got a baller. <a href="https://t.co/sl4Lwpu8T2">https://t.co/sl4Lwpu8T2</a>
&mdash; Alex Wood (@Awood45) <a href="https://twitter.com/Awood45/status/1465143304702418946?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 29, 2021</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The Blue Jays have put a huge emphasis on culture and having good people in the room. With every acquisition they have made you see these types of reactions from players, or see stories written about how great the players are off the field. Gausman is going to be a great fit for this team.
On the mound Gausman’s approach is pretty straightforward; pound the zone with fastballs and get you out with the spilt-finger down.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-53879" src="https://bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/ed42f542-7b25-4a53-b2ef-a97b1f94b5cb-300x300.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="400" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/ed42f542-7b25-4a53-b2ef-a97b1f94b5cb-300x300.jpg 300w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/ed42f542-7b25-4a53-b2ef-a97b1f94b5cb-150x150.jpg 150w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/ed42f542-7b25-4a53-b2ef-a97b1f94b5cb-768x768.jpg 768w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/ed42f542-7b25-4a53-b2ef-a97b1f94b5cb.jpg 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px" /><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-53880" src="https://bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/9e7b4e3c-249c-47fc-af17-0c0db0c261b9-300x300.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="400" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/9e7b4e3c-249c-47fc-af17-0c0db0c261b9-300x300.jpg 300w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/9e7b4e3c-249c-47fc-af17-0c0db0c261b9-150x150.jpg 150w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/9e7b4e3c-249c-47fc-af17-0c0db0c261b9-768x768.jpg 768w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/9e7b4e3c-249c-47fc-af17-0c0db0c261b9.jpg 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px" />
Gausman throws these two pitches over 85% of the time. He has dabbled with a  slider and a change-up in the past, but for how good these two pitches are, he doesn’t need to throw anything else.
Gausman’s splitter is one of the best pitches in all of baseball.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
No one managed to get 240 swinging strikes with a single pitch type last season&#8230;except for Kevin Gausman who got 272 with his splitter.😍
&mdash; Codify (@CodifyBaseball) <a href="https://twitter.com/CodifyBaseball/status/1464993863043469314?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 28, 2021</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Kevin Gausman, Wicked Splitters. 🤢 <a href="https://t.co/ofxCVWBQNt">pic.twitter.com/ofxCVWBQNt</a>
&mdash; Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1438606494753337348?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 16, 2021</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
&nbsp;
Batters hit just .133 against the splitter with a 45.9% whiff rate, per <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/">Baseball Savant</a>. From the gif above you can see the type of movement Gausman gets with that pitch. The splitter drops 37 inches as it comes to the plate and has another 12.8 inches of break. Both of which are well above average for a splitter. Per <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/">Baseball Savant’s</a> run value, Gausman’s splitter was worth -23 runs, putting it in a tie for second for the most valuable pitch in baseball last season. Dan Szymborski at <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-gausman-is-giving-batters-splitting-headaches/">FanGraphs wrote about Gausman’s splitter</a> in June and how it had changed and what that did to Gausman’s future projections. Spoiler they improved.
For more information on Gausman’s pitches and pitching approach, <a href="https://www.pitcherlist.com/kevin-gausman-the-heart-and-the-shadow/">I would highly recommend this deep dive</a> by Alex Fast of Pitcher List.
The big question on the minds of Blue Jays fans is how Gausman’s stuff will play in the AL East. When Gausman was last in the division from 2013-2018, he pitched to a 4.22 ERA with Baltimore, failing to live up to his prospect pedigree. Home runs were an issue during his time with the Orioles allowing well over one homer per nine during his time there.
With the Giants, Gausman started throwing his fastball higher in the zone. This led to a 36.5% fly-ball rate last season, the highest rate for Gausman since 2015. Here is a spray chart of those fly balls overlaid on Rogers Centre.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-53881" src="https://bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/f214d4a9-5cbd-45c8-88aa-c61bd49f34fa-300x300.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="400" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/f214d4a9-5cbd-45c8-88aa-c61bd49f34fa-300x300.jpg 300w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/f214d4a9-5cbd-45c8-88aa-c61bd49f34fa-150x150.jpg 150w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/f214d4a9-5cbd-45c8-88aa-c61bd49f34fa-768x768.jpg 768w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/f214d4a9-5cbd-45c8-88aa-c61bd49f34fa.jpg 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px" />
That’s quite a few flyouts that would have been home runs in Toronto. Obviously, he is not going to be pitching every game at home, but it’s clear pitching in the AL East is much tougher on pitchers than the NL West.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-53883" src="https://bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/Park-Factors-300x75.png" alt="" width="700" height="174" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/Park-Factors-300x75.png 300w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/Park-Factors-768x191.png 768w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/Park-Factors.png 892w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" />
These are the <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&amp;year=2021&amp;batSide=&amp;stat=index_wOBA&amp;condition=All&amp;rolling=&amp;sort=11&amp;sortDir=asc">park factors from Baseball Savant</a> for the two divisions. The Giants play in one of the most pitcher-friendly park in the league. It has the lowest park factor for home runs and tied for the lowest for runs scored. Toronto on the other hand, due its smaller dimensions is a great place to hit homers but actually has the lowest park factor for singles. Gausman is going to give up more home runs pitching in this division. As we saw with Ray giving up home runs isn’t the end of the world if you can limit the number of base runners you put on.
This was Gausman’s issue in Baltimore. He had a high batting average on balls in play. Hits were dropping and he didn’t have enough strikeout acumen to get himself out of jams. Gausman is a much better pitcher now than he was with the Orioles.
Back with the Orioles Gausman threw his fastball well over 60% of the time while mixing in his splitter and a slider. When he got traded to Atlanta in 2018, he ditched the slider, and decreased his fastball usage in favour of the splitter. With that increased usage came better location. As Arden Zwelling <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/why-blue-jays-are-betting-on-gausman-and-the-games-best-splitter/">showed over at Sportsnet</a>, Gausman used to throw his splitter on the edge of the strike zone down and in on a right-handed batter. Now he throws the pitch directly under the strike zone. What this has done is make his fastball and splitter tunnel almost perfectly, making it extremely difficult for hitters to pick up.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Kevin Gausman, 94mph Fastball and 83mph Splitter, Overlay. <a href="https://t.co/7qbi9NVILE">pic.twitter.com/7qbi9NVILE</a>
&mdash; Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1384287298557145090?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 19, 2021</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Kevin Gausman, 97mph Fastball and 86mph Splitter, Individual Pitches + Overlay/tails <a href="https://t.co/XpFvJu0Z9e">pic.twitter.com/XpFvJu0Z9e</a>
&mdash; Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1399339010103861248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 31, 2021</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Gausman gives nothing away to the hitters. He releases each pitch from the same release point and out the hand the pitches appear to have a similar spin.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-53884" src="https://bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/Gausman-Spin-Mirroring--300x148.jpg" alt="" width="700" height="346" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/Gausman-Spin-Mirroring--300x148.jpg 300w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/Gausman-Spin-Mirroring--768x379.jpg 768w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/Gausman-Spin-Mirroring-.jpg 782w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" />
When they get to the plate however the spin on the splitter has taken the ball down giving it separation from the fastball. You can see if the gif above where it pauses slightly, that is essentially the decision-making point for the hitter. They need to decide at that moment whether to swing or not and at that moment, given the spin of the ball and where the ball is, you have very little indication whether the pitch is going to be a fastball or splitter. This is why when you watch Gausman you see so many hitters swinging over and under the ball.
To answer the question will Gausman’s stuff be able to play in the American League East? The answer is an astounding yes. His stuff is elite and can get anyone out. Pitching in the AL East will certainly be a challenge but it’s not like the NL West is a pushover. Having to face the Dodgers, and Padres, and pitch in Colorado is no simple task. Did Oracle Park help suppress home runs, certainly, but the Rogers Centre will help Gausman as well.
The Dome suppresses base hits which should help keep Gausman’s BABIP down. When he does get into trouble he can bail himself out with a strikeout. He will allow home runs but we all just saw firsthand home runs don’t hurt you if they are solo shots. Kevin Gausman is an elite starting pitcher and will anchor the Blue Jays rotation for the next five seasons.

They have finally done it. The Blue Jays have been after Kevin Gausman forever it seems and on Sunday they landed their guy signing Gausman to a 5-Year $110 million contract.



It’s not hard to see why the Blue Jays coveted Gausman, he checks off so many boxes for this front office. First of all he is an ace. Gausman had a 2.81 ERA last season, supported by a 3.00 FIP and 3.28 xFIP. By <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/">FanGraphs</a> WAR he was worth 4.8 wins, ranking 10th among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings.

He struck out 227 batters against just 50 walks. He has swing and miss stuff, his 15.3% swinging-strike rate, was basically the same as Robbie Ray’s last season. Second, he is durable, having made at least 30 starts in four of the last five full seasons. His 192.0 innings pitched last year were the sixth most in baseball. This is something I think the Blue Jays have focused on. In a league where starters are pitching less and less the Blue Jays will have two pitchers (of just seven) in their rotation next season who threw 190 innings last season in Gausman and José Berríos.

Third, Gausman seems like a really good person.

https://twitter.com/Awood45/status/1465143304702418946

The Blue Jays have put a huge emphasis on culture and having good people in the room. With every acquisition they have made you see these types of reactions from players, or see stories written about how great the players are off the field. Gausman is going to be a great fit for this team.

On the mound Gausman’s approach is pretty straightforward; pound the zone with fastballs and get you out with the spilt-finger down.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-53879" src="https://bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/ed42f542-7b25-4a53-b2ef-a97b1f94b5cb-300x300.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="400" /><img class="alignnone wp-image-53880" src="https://bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/9e7b4e3c-249c-47fc-af17-0c0db0c261b9-300x300.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="400" />

Gausman throws these two pitches over 85% of the time. He has dabbled with a  slider and a change-up in the past, but for how good these two pitches are, he doesn’t need to throw anything else.

Gausman’s splitter is one of the best pitches in all of baseball.

https://twitter.com/CodifyBaseball/status/1464993863043469314

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1438606494753337348

&nbsp;

Batters hit just .133 against the splitter with a 45.9% whiff rate, per <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/">Baseball Savant</a>. From the gif above you can see the type of movement Gausman gets with that pitch. The splitter drops 37 inches as it comes to the plate and has another 12.8 inches of break. Both of which are well above average for a splitter. Per <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/">Baseball Savant’s</a> run value, Gausman’s splitter was worth -23 runs, putting it in a tie for second for the most valuable pitch in baseball last season. Dan Szymborski at <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-gausman-is-giving-batters-splitting-headaches/">FanGraphs wrote about Gausman’s splitter</a> in June and how it had changed and what that did to Gausman’s future projections. Spoiler they improved.

For more information on Gausman’s pitches and pitching approach, <a href="https://www.pitcherlist.com/kevin-gausman-the-heart-and-the-shadow/">I would highly recommend this deep dive</a> by Alex Fast of Pitcher List.

The big question on the minds of Blue Jays fans is how Gausman’s stuff will play in the AL East. When Gausman was last in the division from 2013-2018, he pitched to a 4.22 ERA with Baltimore, failing to live up to his prospect pedigree. Home runs were an issue during his time with the Orioles allowing well over one homer per nine during his time there.

With the Giants, Gausman started throwing his fastball higher in the zone. This led to a 36.5% fly-ball rate last season, the highest rate for Gausman since 2015. Here is a spray chart of those fly balls overlaid on Rogers Centre.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-53881" src="https://bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/f214d4a9-5cbd-45c8-88aa-c61bd49f34fa-300x300.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="400" />

That’s quite a few flyouts that would have been home runs in Toronto. Obviously, he is not going to be pitching every game at home, but it’s clear pitching in the AL East is much tougher on pitchers than the NL West.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-53883" src="https://bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/Park-Factors-300x75.png" alt="" width="700" height="174" />

These are the <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&amp;year=2021&amp;batSide=&amp;stat=index_wOBA&amp;condition=All&amp;rolling=&amp;sort=11&amp;sortDir=asc">park factors from Baseball Savant</a> for the two divisions. The Giants play in one of the most pitcher-friendly park in the league. It has the lowest park factor for home runs and tied for the lowest for runs scored. Toronto on the other hand, due its smaller dimensions is a great place to hit homers but actually has the lowest park factor for singles. Gausman is going to give up more home runs pitching in this division. As we saw with Ray giving up home runs isn’t the end of the world if you can limit the number of base runners you put on.

This was Gausman’s issue in Baltimore. He had a high batting average on balls in play. Hits were dropping and he didn’t have enough strikeout acumen to get himself out of jams. Gausman is a much better pitcher now than he was with the Orioles.

Back with the Orioles Gausman threw his fastball well over 60% of the time while mixing in his splitter and a slider. When he got traded to Atlanta in 2018, he ditched the slider, and decreased his fastball usage in favour of the splitter. With that increased usage came better location. As Arden Zwelling <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/why-blue-jays-are-betting-on-gausman-and-the-games-best-splitter/">showed over at Sportsnet</a>, Gausman used to throw his splitter on the edge of the strike zone down and in on a right-handed batter. Now he throws the pitch directly under the strike zone. What this has done is make his fastball and splitter tunnel almost perfectly, making it extremely difficult for hitters to pick up.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1384287298557145090

https://twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1399339010103861248

Gausman gives nothing away to the hitters. He releases each pitch from the same release point and out the hand the pitches appear to have a similar spin.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-53884" src="https://bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/11/Gausman-Spin-Mirroring--300x148.jpg" alt="" width="700" height="346" />

When they get to the plate however the spin on the splitter has taken the ball down giving it separation from the fastball. You can see if the gif above where it pauses slightly, that is essentially the decision-making point for the hitter. They need to decide at that moment whether to swing or not and at that moment, given the spin of the ball and where the ball is, you have very little indication whether the pitch is going to be a fastball or splitter. This is why when you watch Gausman you see so many hitters swinging over and under the ball.

To answer the question will Gausman’s stuff be able to play in the American League East? The answer is an astounding yes. His stuff is elite and can get anyone out. Pitching in the AL East will certainly be a challenge but it’s not like the NL West is a pushover. Having to face the Dodgers, and Padres, and pitch in Colorado is no simple task. Did Oracle Park help suppress home runs, certainly, but the Rogers Centre will help Gausman as well.

The Dome suppresses base hits which should help keep Gausman’s BABIP down. When he does get into trouble he can bail himself out with a strikeout. He will allow home runs but we all just saw firsthand home runs don’t hurt you if they are solo shots. Kevin Gausman is an elite starting pitcher and will anchor the Blue Jays rotation for the next five seasons.

Why Kevin Gausman can survive the AL East the second time around

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