About Last Night… That Wasn’t The Ending We Were Hoping For….

After pissing away two golden opportunities to get a lead early, the Red Sox were the ones who would end up with an early lead. Chris Young hit his fifth home run of the year and his first of the year against a lefty to put Boston up 1-0. The lead wouldn’t hold for long though, the Jays actually managing to string some hits together in the top of the fifth. A double from Justin Smoak and singles from Morales and Tulo led to a 3-1 Jays lead heading into the sixth.

A solo shot off of the bat of Dustin Pedroia in the sixth brought the Red Sox within one, and it would be Pedroia again striking in the seventh doubling home Brock Holt to tie things up. More squandered opportunities and a couple extra innings later, the Jays would take another lead in the top of the 11th on a Ryan Goins sacrifice fly. It wouldn’t be enough though, with Osuna blowing his first save after 22 straight, and the rivals continued to play on. A couple of excellent innings from Mike Bolsinger, including a four strikeout frame, unfortunately wouldn’t be enough to put the Jays over the top, with Hanley Ramirez hitting a walk-off shot to left. A disappointing end to the game, but at that point thank fuck for the sweet release of sleep.

Starting Pitchers Lines:

JA Happ (ND):  5+ IP 5 H 2 R 2 ER 2 BB 2 SO

Brian Johnson (ND): 6 IP 8 H 3 R 3 ER 3 BB 4 SO


With last night’s game going into extras, the Blue Jay that added the highest win probability was on the shoulders of a reliever. Danny Barnes took the honors, going 1.1 innings, and giving up only 1 hit, adding 18.7% to the Jays chances of winning.


Unfortunately, there were a couple of guys that significantly hurt the Jays chances last night. The worst of them all, however, was Russell Martin. Martin actually contributed on the scoreboard slightly scoring on a walk but led the team with a whopping -34.6%. Significant damage from the Jays current number two hitter.

Lineup Contribution:

The bats were absolutely abysmal last night failing to cash in runs in multiple high leverage situations. The result was an appalling -71.5% WPA from the sticks.

Pitching Contribution:

Despite the two blown saves and walk off home run, the pitching staff still put forward a positive WPA. JA Happ and the rest of the pen combined for a 21.5% WPA, putting the Jays in an excellent spot to win.

Highest Leverage At Bat:

The highest leverage at bat for the Jays would come in the 13th inning, registering at an LI of 3.41. Troy Tulowitzki led off the inning with a single bringing Steve Pearce to the plate with none out. Anywhere from scoring the run, to simply advancing the runner, to double play could have a significant impact on the game. Unfortunately for the Jays, Pearce struck out on a hit and run gone wrong that turned into a strike ’em out throw ’em out.

Highest Leverage Opponent At Bat:

In the bottom of the 11th, smack dab in the middle of Roberto Osuna’s close opportunity, Brock Holt came to the plate. Down by one, with runners on first and second and one away, Holt had a chance to put things away with an astronomical 7.16 LI. This wouldn’t be the batter to break Osuna’s consecutive save streak, however, as Osuna struck out Holt swinging for the second out.

Highest Impact At Bat:

The highest impact at bat for the Jays last night was a bad one. With the game tied up at three in the top of the eighth Troy Tulowitzki and Steve Pearce started the inning by getting runners at first and third. Kevin Pillar stepped up to the plate and proceeded to hit into a double play that also managed to keep Tulo standing at third. The combination of the run not scoring and the double play slammed the Jays odds of winning by -26.3%,

Highest Impact Opponent At Bat:

I’ll give you one guess….. 41.3% WPA…. Fuck.

Up Next:

The Jays send Aaron Sanchez to the mound to try to take the lead back in the series and at least guarantee a split. Sanchez has 5 straight wins against the Red Sox, so there’s that. Ultimate goals, hopefully, this one ends by midnight.

(h/t to fangraphs.com for WPA chart and statistics)

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