by OddsShark (@OddsShark)
Recent results on the field and a historical trend both appear to be promising for the Toronto Blue Jays in their first series this season against the New York Yankees.
The Blue Jays are -140 home favorites with the Yankees coming back as a +120 underdog and there is a 9.0-run total on the MLB odds for Monday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. It is the first time this band of Blue Jays have been favored at home against the Yankees since the last such instance in this AL East matchup was on April 1, 2018, according to the OddsShark MLB Database.
The Blue Jays are 10-6 in their last 16 games at a home stadium, with a 7-8-1 over/under/push split. The Yankees are 4-10 in their last 14 games as an away underdog, with the UNDER hitting seven times with two pushes at online betting sites. In the long term, Toronto is 14-6 in its last 20 games as a home favorite against New York with the UNDER hitting 14 times.
Toronto’s bats are thriving at Sahlen Field in Buffalo. The Blue Jays are scoring 6.3 runs per game there and their .878 home OPS (on-base-plus-slugging) is the second-highest among 30 MLB teams. While the bullpen’s heavy workload is a concern, the Blue Jays’ 3.85 home earned-run average ranks eighth. With injuries to power-hitting corner outfielders Aaron Judge and Mike Stanton, the Yankees are averaging 3.9 runs per game on the road and their .671 road OPS ranks 24th. On the mound, the Yankees’ 5.01 road ERA ranks 19th.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-1, 2.51 ERA, 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings) starts opposite of Jordan Montgomery (2-2, 5.76 ERA, 7.9 SO/9) in an all-lefthander starting pitching matchup on Monday. Ryu’s teams are 7-2 in his last nine starts when they were favored. Montgomery has a 2.33 ERA in 19.1 career innings against Toronto, and the total has gone UNDER in six of his nine most recent starts.
Righthander Taijuan Walker (3-2, 3.26 ERA, 7.7 SO/9) starts opposite lefty J.A. Happ (1-1, 4.68 ERA, 5.4 SO/9) on Tuesday. The total has gone UNDER in eight of Walker’s last 11 starts when his team was a home favorite. The Yankees are 0-3 in Happ’s last three starts against Toronto and the total went UNDER in all three.
Tanner Roark (2-1, 5.74 ERA, 8.0 SO/9) and rookie Deivi Garcia (0-1, 3.88 ERA, 10.1 SO/9), both righthanders, are in line to be the starters for Wednesday’s matchup. The Blue Jays are 6-1 in Roark’s last seven starts, but the total has gone OVER in four of the last five. Garcia is making his third MLB start and Blue Jays hitters will face an adjustment to the 21-year-old’s strong curveball.
The Blue Jays have a scheduled off day on Thursday before a three-game series against the New York Mets. They are likely to face Mets ace Jacob deGrom at some point.