MLB Betting Preview (April 19): Blue Jays vs. Padres predictions
Photo credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
By Greg Warren
Apr 19, 2024, 12:00 EDTUpdated: Apr 19, 2024, 13:38 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will open a three-game series against the Padres in San Diego at Petco Park on Friday night after winning three consecutive home series at Rogers Centre. Toronto was a few outs away from completing a three-game sweep of New York on Wednesday, but the Yankees rallied for four runs in the ninth inning to salvage a game in the series.
The Blue Jays went 6-3 straight-up and 5-4 on the runline during the nine-game homestand. The Padres will be playing the final leg of their current nine-game road trip after taking two of three from both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers. San Diego was shut out 1-0 Wednesday by the Brewers and held to just five hits.
Let’s take a look at Friday’s game odds via bet365:
Blue Jays vs. Padres odds
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | +100 |
Padres Moneyline Odds | -120 |
Runline Odds | Padres -1.5 (+175), Blue Jays +1.5 (-210) |
Over/Under | 8.5 runs (over -110, under -110) |
Time/Date | April 19, 9:40 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet |
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (10-9 SU, 11-8 ATS, 9-10 o/u)
Friday will mark the first contest of a seven-game road trip for the Blue Jays, who are 4-6 straight-up and 5-5 on the runline with a 6-4 over/under mark in 10 road games this season. After three games in San Diego, Toronto will head to Kansas City for a four-game set before returning to Rogers Centre for a tough home set with Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers. Scoring runs has been a challenge again this season for the Blue Jays, who are averaging just 3.8 runs per game (21st in the majors).
The team also ranks in the bottom half of the league in batting average (.233 – 20th), slugging percentage (.363 – 21st), and OPS (.688 – 19th). On a positive note, the Jays are finally getting some key players healthy. Danny Jansen, Jordan Romano, and Erik Swanson all returned from various ailments during the team’s recent homestand. That leaves just right-hander Alek Manoah (shoulder) on the shelf. Reliever Chad Green is battling a sore shoulder and could be held out of action Friday.
Betting San Diego Padres (11-10 SU, 11-10 ATS, 11-9-1 o/u)
The Padres are off to a solid start thanks to some hot bats out of the gate. They’ve scored the most runs in the majors to this point (109) and rank in the top 10 in many offensive categories including home runs (24 – third), batting average (.258 – sixth), on-base percentage (.333 – seventh), and slugging percentage (.417 – sixth). They’re getting contributions up and down their lineup, with outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. leading the way with five homers, 13 RBIs, and three stolen bases.
San Diego ranks in the middle of the pack in most pitching statistics, but the recent addition of right-hander Yu Darvish (neck) to the injured list is a blow to the starting rotation. Darvish was slated to pitch Saturday against the Jays. Second baseman Jake Cronenworth is also day-to-day after missing the last two games with a calf problem.
Probable pitchers
Toronto: RHP Yariel Rodriguez (0-0, 2.45 ERA, 14.73 K/9, 1.64 WHIP) Rodriguez made his MLB debut last Saturday against the Colorado Rockies, throwing 3 2/3 innings of one-run ball on 68 pitches while striking out six. The early returns look promising on the Cuban-born righty, but it’ll be interesting to see how he performs against a potent Padres lineup now that the adrenaline has worn off from making his big-league debut. Rodriguez’s fastball averaged 95 mph last Saturday, and his slider was effective, notching him five of his six strikeouts. He also uses a hesitation delivery that can throw off the timing of opposing hitters. He’ll have the element of surprise in his favour against the Padres, but don’t expect an extended outing from him as he continues to build his pitch count.
San Diego: RHP Matt Waldron (0-1, 3.14 ERA, 10.05 K/9, 1.47 WHIP) Waldron, who throws a knuckleball 36% of the time, will certainly present the Blue Jays with a unique challenge. He struggled with his control last time out, walking four batters over five innings of work against the Dodgers, but he did hold Los Angeles to just one run on three hits while striking out four. Waldron’s four-seamer averages just 91 mph, but he also mixes in a sinker, sweeper, and cutter to keep batters off balance. No one on Toronto’s roster has ever faced Waldron, so it could take a few plate appearances to hone in on the knuckleball.
Weather
It should be a beautiful night for baseball in San Diego with forecasts projecting temperatures around 14 C and light winds blowing from left field to right field at 8 mph.
MLB betting trends
- The Padres have been favourites 11 times this season and won six of those games (54.5%).
- The Blue Jays have won just three of the nine games they’ve been underdogs this season (33.3%).
- The under is 6-3 in Toronto’s last nine games.
MLB player prop trends
- Waldron has exceeded his posted strikeout total in all three starts this season, averaging 5.3 per game during that span. He’s -145 at bet365 to record over 3.5 strikeouts.
- Padres designated hitter Manny Machado carries an 11-game hitting streak into action Friday. He’s a steep -200 to record a hit at bet365 but is a more generous +140 to record over 1.5 total bases.
- Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho is coming off a two-homer performance on Wednesday and has four long balls in his last six games. He’s -165 to record a hit and +450 to homer at bet365.
Blue Jays vs. Padres predictions
- 5 innings total under 4.5 runs (-110): Both of these quirky starting pitchers have the element of surprise, and it should take a couple turns around the batting order to get a beat on them. Under 8.5 runs (-110) on the full-game total may also be worth a look, given Toronto’s offensive struggles this season and the Padres being shut out last time out.