Don’t look now, but Major League Baseball’s trade season is fast approaching.

This season’s trade deadline, bumped to Aug. 3 to prevent it from falling on a weekend, will arrive in just over a month, if you can believe it. That means there’s still plenty of time for the landscape to change in the wide-open American League. Most clubs will use these next few weeks to determine whether they should buy, sell or do neither.

For the Toronto Blue Jays, though, unless they suddenly lose every game between now and then (you didn’t hear that, baseball gods), the expectation is that, after returning to .500 on Monday, they’ll remain an aggressive buyer leading up to this year’s deadline.

Despite a bumpy first half, the franchise currently finds itself in the AL’s final wild-card seed, looking up at both the Tampa Bay Rays and division-leading New York Yankees. But whether it’s climbing up the wild-card standings or making another come-from-behind dash at the division title, nothing should be considered out of reach for general manager Ross Atkins’ team.

They’ve already come too far — and invested too much, sitting over $14 million above the fourth and final luxury tax threshold ($304 million), per FanGraphs’ RosterResource — to approach the 2026 trade deadline any differently.

As this season has proved, the Blue Jays’ roster isn’t perfect — in fact, you could argue it’s far from it. The impending return of a few core injured players — Shane Bieber on Tuesday against the Houston Astros, and Addison Barger (who could begin a rehab assignment on Thursday) likely in early July — should help in that regard. However, some holes will need to be addressed via trade.

And it’s pretty clear what those holes are.

There’s no better place to start than with Toronto’s frustratingly inconsistent offence.

Scoring runs, or a lack thereof, has often stood out like a sore thumb as they enter Tuesday’s slate 24th in runs scored per game (4.1) this season. This lineup has lacked an identity most nights. By many metrics, it’s viewed as an average offence — if not a tick or two below that.

Everything revolves around Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who remains stuck on four home runs thus far and has yet to recapture the dominance that transformed him into a post-season hero last fall. No. 27 needs more help. Better days should lie ahead for this offence, considering it’s been without a healthy George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Nathan Lukes, Daulton Varsho and Barger at one time or another.

Adding another impact bat to this mix, which has received strong contributions from rookie Kazuma Okamoto, Ernie Clement and Jesús Sánchez, should be among the organization’s top priorities ahead of this season’s deadline. While that hasn’t traditionally been the case in previous years, as the majority of their mid-season splashes have catered to the pitching front, perhaps this is the year that changes.

Maybe it’s not in the form of a game-changing, middle-of-the-order bat. It’d be a tad difficult to accommodate consistent playing time for an everyday player given this roster’s current construction, anyway. At the very least, though, they need to become a little more right-handed to help offset their season-long woes against left-handed pitching.

Due to Toronto’s surplus of left-handed-hitting outfielders, the likes of Sánchez and Yohendrick Piñango have taken more at-bats versus southpaws (with the duo a combined 7-for-53 in those matchups) out of necessity, as a result of Davis Schneider’s poor results prior to returning from Triple-A Buffalo and Myles Straw producing better reverse splits.

Ideally, the Blue Jays’ brass can bring in a lefty-mashing, right-handed bat with a bit of defensive versatility between the infield and outfield. At this point, such a player would have to offer an upgrade over Schneider.

Beyond improving the offence, the next big-ticket item on their deadline shopping list should probably include a starting pitcher. But there’s an opportunity to act a bit creatively here. With Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage and Bieber in the rotation, they don’t necessarily have to shop at the top of the market. A dependable back-end starter would do nicely, too.

Since Gausman, Bieber, Patrick Corbin and Max Scherzer are free agents after this season, Toronto’s front office can also canvass beyond the rental market, weighing the costs of acquiring a controllable starter. But should that avenue prove too lucrative, they could always make a splash for an impending free agent and attempt to retain them beyond ’26.

The back end of the bullpen could also use an upgrade. It has, by far, been the club’s biggest strength this season. But it’s also endured the most wear and tear thus far. Of the sport’s 16 most-used relievers this season, four are Blue Jays — Tyler Rogers, Louis Varland, Mason Fluharty and Jeff Hoffman — and Braydon Fisher isn’t far behind, on pace to set a career-high in appearances and innings pitched in his second major league season.

Looking at this ‘pen, six of the eight spots should be considered locks, including Varland, Rogers, Hoffman, Fluharty, Fisher, and Spencer Miles. Add in a multi-inning reliever role, currently held by Simeon Woods Richardson, and that leaves just one spot available for an external addition.

Barring an injury to the group above, that may ultimately make Tommy Nance — who’s out of options and has struggled in six appearances (5.40 ERA and 8.70 FIP) since returning from the injured list — the odd man out in this situation.

This is where the gap to the Aug. 3 trade deadline complicates matters. Right now, you can count the number of teams that will definitely sell with one hand.

Since the Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals, Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants and New York Mets are each at least more than five games out of a playoff spot, we can safely declare them as projected sellers. The Los Angeles Angels, owners of MLB’s second-worst record, should be included alongside them, too. But because they have routinely zigged when everyone else has zagged, even the most informed minds often struggle to predict their deadline plans.

Even if we include the Angels as sellers, that only brings us to six teams with assets to move. Everyone else still believes they have a shot at the post-season, with all but three clubs in each league either holding a playoff spot or are within five games of one. The inclusion of a third wild-card seed has created an extreme sellers’ market in recent seasons, and even more so this year, with the trade deadline pushed into August.

More teams will end up selling after the dust settles. We just don’t know who they’ll be quite yet. Based on the current standings, those with the highest odds of dropping out of the playoff races and becoming sellers include the Detroit Tigers (Tarik Skubal watch), Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles on the AL side, and the Cincinnati Reds in the NL.

If the Tigers indeed sell, Skubal will instantly become the most sought-after player on the market, and the Blue Jays should be in play, among several other competing clubs. But they’ll surely have other interests, too, such as a reliever from the Red Sox (Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock), Royals (Alex Lange, Lucas Erceg), Mets (Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley) or Astros (Steven Okert).

Or a starting pitcher from perhaps the Orioles (Trevor Rogers), Angels (Reid Detmers), Giants (Robbie Ray) or Twins (Joe Ryan). That final team listed may also end up moving an impact bat, Byron Buxton, whose full no-trade clause allows him to control his fate. The Reds are another potential suitor with an intriguing option in the hitter market: Spencer Steer.

With how aggressive the Blue Jays will likely be, this might be the first time in the Ross Atkins-Mark Shapiro era where no untouchables exist in the farm system. It’s World Series or bust, meaning the time for prospect hoarding of any kind may soon be over.

One of the best examples of that is the situation surrounding Sean Keys, who won’t be Rule 5-eligible until after next season, but is already deserving of a 40-man roster spot. He’s dominated the Triple-A circuit thus far, hitting .280/.410/.640 with nine extra-base hits (four home runs) and 12 RBIs in 15 games, worth a 166 wRC+ (100 league average).

If Keys — who’s only played first or third base in his career — had a pathway to the majors, he’d probably be up with the Blue Jays right now. Since he isn’t at risk of being claimed in this fall’s Rule 5 draft, there isn’t any urgency to make a move any time soon. In fact, the organization could keep him at Triple-A for the rest of ’26 if it wanted.

Or… the 23-year-old lefty slugger could be utilized to execute a meaningful trade as one of Toronto’s most appealing position-player prospects.

There’s a similar argument about Piñango, as well, after he impressed during his 43-game sample size with the Blue Jays. Because he’s a left-handed-hitting outfielder, his pathway is also blocked when Sánchez, Lukes and Varsho are healthy at the same time — and that’s before including Barger.

With all three minor-league options remaining, plus a bit of major league experience, Piñango’s trade value has never been higher than now — same for Keys, and Charles McAdoo, another bat-first prospect without a clear big-league trajectory. In terms of MLB-ready hitters, those three are the best that this organization has to offer.

Of course, there are higher-ceiling hitting prospects at the levels below, such as Arjun Nimmala, Jojo Parker and Juan Sanchez. And that’s also true on the pitching side, starting with Johnny King. But every front office must also remain mindful of asset management, particularly as it pertains to the upcoming class of prospects who will enter the Rule 5 draft if they aren’t protected on the 40-man roster.

And there could be a small handful of popular names who end up being discussed because of that.

Notable prospects who’ll be Rule 5-eligible this fall: Gage Stanifer, Nolan Perry, Josh Kasevich, RJ Schreck, Tucker Toman, Daniel Guerra, Adrian Pinto, Brandon Barriera (injured), Fernando Perez and Victor Arias.

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