The Toronto Blue Jays were supposed to get going by the end of May, just like last season.

Instead, the 2026 Blue Jays are below .500 (29-31) after losing two straight games to the Orioles this past weekend. Coming off an American League pennant, this wasn’t how their story was supposed to unfold, but it’s the unfortunate reality they face.

The only consolation now is the fact the season is just over two months old, meaning there’s time left for the Blue Jays to course-correct. If they can change their fortune in these three aspects, they’ll have a chance to get back to where they were last year.

The 2025 Blue Jays didn’t strike out much as a lineup last year, and that was the biggest part of their success story. The 2026 Blue Jays aren’t striking out either, as their 19.2 K% as a team is only bested by the Tampa Bay Rays’ 18.7 K%, but their offence hasn’t been hitting for extra bases.

At the 60 games mark last season, the Blue Jays had a .395 slugging percentage and 60 home runs, ranking 12th and 19th respectively. Fast forward to June 2nd, 2026, they have a .380 slugging percentage (t-21st) and 56 home runs, tied for 20th.

Another culprit for the Blue Jays’ lethargic offence is their inability to get on base. The Blue Jays currently rank 25th in OBP and OPS, indicating a deadly combination: a power outage and a dearth of runners on base. They have also only scored 244 runs, which ranks 22nd.

Injuries have forced the Blue Jays to rely heavily on their bench players for run production early on in 2026. Addison Barger’s impending return will give them more power in the lineup, but their stars need to play like stars. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and Daulton Varsho have all seen a decline in their power just over two months into the season, and they’ll have to hit with power more consistently for the team’s offence to stabilize.

The Blue Jays rank ninth in hits, but those results aren’t translating on the field for a multitude of reasons. With runners in scoring position, the Blue Jays are hitting .236, but have the third-lowest wRC+ with RISP. Their quality of contact is well down as well.

Last season, the Blue Jays finished first in OBP,  third in OPS and fourth in runs. If the 2026 Blue Jays hope to replicate that level of success, then they need more players to step up in the power department and make more meaningful contact to drive runners in.

The 2025 Blue Jays were known as the relentless bunch because their lineup remained patient at the plate. That is no longer the case for the Blue Jays, as they rank 26th in walk rate. The only teams behind them are the New York Mets, Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants; it’s a troublesome company to be associated with.

Showing discipline in the batter’s box helps hitters to get into more favourable counts, and it increases the probability of getting on base. Being patient is also directly related to putting more players in scoring positions.

The 2026 Blue Jays aren’t striking out, but they are also walking less compared to last season.  What this means is that the Blue Jays are making more contact early and aren’t necessarily waiting to see more pitches. It’s not the ideal pairing because the Blue Jays are ninth in hitting into double plays, which entirely erases their offensive momentum.

Their underlying numbers back it up as well. Last season, the Blue Jays were aggressive, chasing 29.3% of the time, but they did a good job of fouling off pitches and eventually earning walks. They’ve been even more aggressive this season (34.1 chase percentage), and they do a good job of making contact, but the foul balls of yesteryear have turned into soft contact outs so far this season.

While the 2025 Jays grounded into the most double plays, they drew more than enough walks to avoid that being an issue. That isn’t the case this season.

The Blue Jays’ true turnaround won’t start until their lineup can become more disciplined as a whole. Teams like the Phillies can get away with not walking much because they are capable of hitting more home runs. The 2026 Blue Jays don’t have that kind of luxury; they aren’t designed to become the house of home runs. Patience should become more than just a virtue for a team that needs to grind it out with tenacity.

The Blue Jays’ pitching has been quite remarkable for all that it’s gone through with heaps of injuries. Kevin Gausman has been the bona fide ace, despite a few shaky outings, and Dylan Cease worked wonders in most of his starts with eye-popping strikeouts until he went on the 15-day injured list in late May. Even with those contributions, the team only ranks 24th in quality starts this year.

As good as their starters have been, 10th in ERA eighth in FIP, their starters have thrown just 278 innings, the fourth-fewest in the big leagues this season. A big reason for that is once again injuries. José Berríos, Shane Bieber, and Trey Yesavage began the season on the IL, and Cody Ponce joined them shortly after.

On top of that Eric Lauer and Max Scherzer didn’t give them many innings early in the season either, before Lauer was DFA’d and Scherzer hit the IL. Losing Cease has caused the Blue Jays to have two bullpen days. Attempting to fill that gap with spot starts (or a series of relievers) has been rocky for the Blue Jays.

While they tend to do well in bullpen days, their game on May 31 against the Orioles showed the worst-case scenario of a bullpen day. The bullpen has handled it well, but this is unsustainable over the course of a full season.

They’re starting to get healthy, as Bieber and Scherzer have begun rehab assignments, while Cease’s stint on the IL may end up being a minimum one. That said, their starters need to pitch deeper into games to save their bullpen.