Believe it or not, the Blue Jays swept the reigning AL West division leader, the Seattle Mariners, just this past weekend. Toronto has returned home to host the age-old division rival Tampa Bay Rays for a three-game series. Historically speaking, the Blue Jays have a losing record of <a href="https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/blue-jays-record-vs-tampa-bay-rays">210-254</a> against the Rays and a spotty record at Tropicana Field.  
But since the Rays themselves are struggling to begin the year, much like the AL East division itself, this is the golden opportunity for Toronto to build a cushion and aim for a winning record. The Rays are dealing with <a href="https://www.mlb.com/rays/roster/40-man">some injuries</a>, with Jake Magnum, Richie Palacios, Josh Lowe, Jonny DeLuca, and Ha-Seong Kim being on the IL roster, player-wise, while Alex Faedo, Hunter Bigge, Kevin Kelly, and left-hander Shane McClanahan are also on the IL for the pitching staff. 
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Below are three things the Blue Jays should do to come out victorious in this three-game series. 
1) Score early and often against starting pitching before the bullpen comes in
Despite their wildly successful pitching history, this iteration of the Tampa Bay Rays hasn’t exactly been a pitching whiz. Most of the “starters” in the rotation have struggled in one way or another. 
So far, Drew Rasmussen has been the most effective starter with a 3.38 ERA, but the rest, including Shane Baz (4.93 ERA), Taj Bradley (4.24 ERA), and Zack Littell (4.40 ERA), have yielded inconsistent results at best. Ryan Pepiot, the centrepiece of the Rays/Dodgers deal that sent Tyler Glasnow out west, owns a 3.86 ERA through three starts with a 1.308 WHIP. The Rays are without McClanahan to begin the year, which doesn&#8217;t help their cause. Currently, the Rays <a href="https://www.mlb.com/stats/team/pitching/era?sortState=asc">are 10th</a> in team ERA (3.74) but have been carried by their bullpen, which has pitched to a 3.23 ERA through 139 1/3 innings (ranking sixth). 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Pete Fairbanks, K&#39;ing the Side in the 9th <a href="https://t.co/ulBThbfziw">pic.twitter.com/ulBThbfziw</a>
&mdash; Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1919138455642120230?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Pete Fairbanks, Manuel Rodriguez, and Garrett Cleavinger all own an ERA under the 3.00 mark with more than 15 innings, and only have a few arms not meeting expectations.
There haven’t been many versions of Tampa Bay with sub-optimal pitching; this is the Blue Jays’ best chance to cash in as many runs as possible, especially with the Rays’ relatively underperforming starting pitchers. Toronto showed off its power and ability to take advantage of weaker pitching performances, and this series against the Rays gives the team another opportunity to carry on the winning momentum. Beat up on the starters before some of the pertinent relievers enter the game. 
For this series, the Jays are slated to face Baz, Pepiot, and Littell.
2) Prevent stolen bases at all costs
The Rays haven’t been offensively productive this season, as the team sits on the other half of the league in OBP, RBIs, home runs and batting average. But if there is anything this team has been great at, they can steal bases. Tampa is currently tied with the Cincinnati Reds in the number of stolen bases (47), which means that the Rays have attempted to create chaos for their rivals on the basepaths frequently. 
Not too long ago, Tampa Bay also promoted Chandler Simpson, who is a base-stealing machine—that bet has paid off so far for the team that has sought more ways to win games. The Rays have four players with 5+ steals &#8211; Jose Cabellero, Jake Magnum, Taylor Walls, and Simpson &#8211; and nine others with at least one stolen base, so it&#8217;s a team effort across the board. 
The Blue Jays’ mission for this series is to prevent these stolen bases as much as possible so that the Rays will miss their chances to cash in runs, which means keeping runners from reaching base. While both Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman have been successful at throwing players out, this series will be a test for Toronto to see if it can start to shift its reputation.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
There&#39;s no such thing as &quot;routine&quot; when Chandler Simpson is running. 😳
Turning this into a double is INSANE. <a href="https://t.co/tRCWDfialD">pic.twitter.com/tRCWDfialD</a>
&mdash; MLB (@MLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1921962606404809174?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 12, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
3) Avoid strikeouts and aim for quality contacts
The Tampa Bay Rays&#8217; pitching staff is 24th in strikeouts (313) and 25th in giving up home runs this season (54), which means that the Blue Jays have more opportunities to make quality contacts and even aim for homers. In general, the Blue Jays haven’t been elite at making timely hits or cashing in the RISP until they faced the Los Angeles Angels and Mariners on the road last week.
As mentioned above, the Rays’ starting pitching efficiency dipped compared to the previous season, but so did the relief pitching to some degree. Aside from the name mentioned above, most of the relief pitching core also struggled to prevent runs, and the lower strikeouts and home runs serve as a testament. 
Scoring as much as possible should be important, but what Toronto should focus on is generating as much quality contact as they can and decreasing the number of strikeouts. This would mean that there needs to be more patience throughout the lineup and the mindset of turning it over to the next person, which will be tough against a Rays lineup that attacks the zone and has allowed just 115 walks this season (ranked third). Doing the big things when it comes to putting up numbers is critical in winning games, but the big things have to start small. Home runs will come once everyone in the lineup puts pressure on the pitching, slowly but surely. Patience has to be the calling card for this series.
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Believe it or not, the Blue Jays swept the reigning AL West division leader, the Seattle Mariners, just this past weekend. Toronto has returned home to host the age-old division rival Tampa Bay Rays for a three-game series. Historically speaking, the Blue Jays have a losing record of <a href="https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/blue-jays-record-vs-tampa-bay-rays">210-254</a> against the Rays and a spotty record at Tropicana Field.  

But since the Rays themselves are struggling to begin the year, much like the AL East division itself, this is the golden opportunity for Toronto to build a cushion and aim for a winning record. The Rays are dealing with <a href="https://www.mlb.com/rays/roster/40-man">some injuries</a>, with Jake Magnum, Richie Palacios, Josh Lowe, Jonny DeLuca, and Ha-Seong Kim being on the IL roster, player-wise, while Alex Faedo, Hunter Bigge, Kevin Kelly, and left-hander Shane McClanahan are also on the IL for the pitching staff. 
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Below are three things the Blue Jays should do to come out victorious in this three-game series. 

1) Score early and often against starting pitching before the bullpen comes in

Despite their wildly successful pitching history, this iteration of the Tampa Bay Rays hasn’t exactly been a pitching whiz. Most of the “starters” in the rotation have struggled in one way or another. 

So far, Drew Rasmussen has been the most effective starter with a 3.38 ERA, but the rest, including Shane Baz (4.93 ERA), Taj Bradley (4.24 ERA), and Zack Littell (4.40 ERA), have yielded inconsistent results at best. Ryan Pepiot, the centrepiece of the Rays/Dodgers deal that sent Tyler Glasnow out west, owns a 3.86 ERA through three starts with a 1.308 WHIP. The Rays are without McClanahan to begin the year, which doesn't help their cause. Currently, the Rays <a href="https://www.mlb.com/stats/team/pitching/era?sortState=asc">are 10th</a> in team ERA (3.74) but have been carried by their bullpen, which has pitched to a 3.23 ERA through 139 1/3 innings (ranking sixth). 

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1919138455642120230

Pete Fairbanks, Manuel Rodriguez, and Garrett Cleavinger all own an ERA under the 3.00 mark with more than 15 innings, and only have a few arms not meeting expectations.

There haven’t been many versions of Tampa Bay with sub-optimal pitching; this is the Blue Jays’ best chance to cash in as many runs as possible, especially with the Rays’ relatively underperforming starting pitchers. Toronto showed off its power and ability to take advantage of weaker pitching performances, and this series against the Rays gives the team another opportunity to carry on the winning momentum. Beat up on the starters before some of the pertinent relievers enter the game. 

For this series, the Jays are slated to face Baz, Pepiot, and Littell.

2) Prevent stolen bases at all costs

The Rays haven’t been offensively productive this season, as the team sits on the other half of the league in OBP, RBIs, home runs and batting average. But if there is anything this team has been great at, they can steal bases. Tampa is currently tied with the Cincinnati Reds in the number of stolen bases (47), which means that the Rays have attempted to create chaos for their rivals on the basepaths frequently. 

Not too long ago, Tampa Bay also promoted Chandler Simpson, who is a base-stealing machine—that bet has paid off so far for the team that has sought more ways to win games. The Rays have four players with 5+ steals - Jose Cabellero, Jake Magnum, Taylor Walls, and Simpson - and nine others with at least one stolen base, so it's a team effort across the board. 

The Blue Jays’ mission for this series is to prevent these stolen bases as much as possible so that the Rays will miss their chances to cash in runs, which means keeping runners from reaching base. While both Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman have been successful at throwing players out, this series will be a test for Toronto to see if it can start to shift its reputation.

https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1921962606404809174

3) Avoid strikeouts and aim for quality contacts

The Tampa Bay Rays' pitching staff is 24th in strikeouts (313) and 25th in giving up home runs this season (54), which means that the Blue Jays have more opportunities to make quality contacts and even aim for homers. In general, the Blue Jays haven’t been elite at making timely hits or cashing in the RISP until they faced the Los Angeles Angels and Mariners on the road last week.

As mentioned above, the Rays’ starting pitching efficiency dipped compared to the previous season, but so did the relief pitching to some degree. Aside from the name mentioned above, most of the relief pitching core also struggled to prevent runs, and the lower strikeouts and home runs serve as a testament. 

Scoring as much as possible should be important, but what Toronto should focus on is generating as much quality contact as they can and decreasing the number of strikeouts. This would mean that there needs to be more patience throughout the lineup and the mindset of turning it over to the next person, which will be tough against a Rays lineup that attacks the zone and has allowed just 115 walks this season (ranked third). Doing the big things when it comes to putting up numbers is critical in winning games, but the big things have to start small. Home runs will come once everyone in the lineup puts pressure on the pitching, slowly but surely. Patience has to be the calling card for this series.

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