The Toronto Blue Jays boast some power bats in the lineup, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the box scores.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. boasts three seasons of 25+ home runs or more, dating back to 2021. Anthony Santander belted 44 homers last season and has 123 to his credit dating back to 2021. Outside of Bichette’s struggles in 2024, the shortstop posted three consecutive campaigns with 20+ round trippers.

Coming into Saturday’s contest against Seattle, the Blue Jays ranked tied for 29th with 12 home runs with the Colorado Rockies and their collective ISO value of .113 has them sitting 27th in the Major Leagues. Sure, they are playing without Daulton Varsho to start the season, who is a power bat that can knock them from the left side, but the trio mentioned earlier has just three home runs so far this season, and Bichette is still looking for his first tally.

While this may seem like an issue at the surface, the Blue Jays continued to find ways to win ball games. And against some pretty considerable arms as well.

Toronto bested Bryan Woo yesterday by collecting three runs off the right-hander, the result of seven hits, of which six were singles. The other base hit was a double, and the Jays used some timely base running and some clutch sacrifice flies to put crooked numbers on the scoreboard. It’s not the usual way to win games, as power and home runs are usually the driving force, but the Jays are sporting a tidy 12-8 record while ranking towards the bottom in the power-related metrics.

So what gives?

The usual scenario is that power equals wins, and for the Blue Jays, that has mostly been true. Of their 12 wins this season, the breakdown has been as follows:

2 wins had zero extra base hits altogether

3 wins had at least one extra base hit, zero home runs

1 win had at least one extra base hit, and it was a home run

6 wins had at least one extra base hit and a home run

Of the Blue Jays’ eight losses, the breakdown paints a different picture:

0 losses had zero extra base hits altogether

4 losses had at least one extra base hit, zero home runs

1 losses had at least one extra base hit, and it was a home run

3 losses had at least one extra base hit and a home run

Now, there are other factors to consider in this that skew the overall sample.

Of the eight losses, the pitching staff allowed 5 or more runs against in five of those games, which is a tough hill to climb for a lineup. The Jays also mustered four or fewer runs in all of them, so it’s not like the bats were helping a great deal either. That was more towards the first few series, although the Orioles tagged the Jays for six runs on Sunday and the Braves loaded Easton Lucas with eight earned on Monday as well.

The other three games were scenarios where the Blue Jays hit at least one double in the contest but zero home runs – these were April 5th (2-3 Mets), April 6th (2-1 Mets), and April 10th (4-3 Red Sox) games. The Jays collected at least 8+ hits in two of those games and at least one double, but couldn’t find ways to score the runners. Interesting to note, as it means the Jays were hitting the singles with intensity, but couldn’t cash the runners in those three games.

Now flipping to the winning side, the Jays have achieved 50% of their wins when the bats hit at least one extra base hit (double or triple) and a home run. There has also been five wins when the Blue Jays don’t hit a home run, whether it be a singles only affair or at least one double thrown into the mix, and the Jays have bridged the gap from the lack of power by just simply passing the baton to the next batter in the lineup. It’s mostly been singles and doubles leading the charge, with a timely walk here and there, but they only have 67 free passes on the season, ranking in the middle of the pack compared to other Major League squads.

It’s one of the reasons their wRC+ sits at 106 (11th) and their BABIP at a .300 (10th), with the Jays sitting ninth in hits (169), seventh in doubles (37th), and seventh in batting average (.255) while ranking 19th in runs overall (79th). They aren’t bludgeoning their opponents to death, they have just six games this season where they have amassed at least five runs (and one of them was a loss). The most they have put up in a single game was the eight spot back on March 28th, and that was the result of two doubles with 14 total hits – singles ruled the day. It’s a mix of strong pitching and winning the tight contests, especially since the Jays sit in the middle of the pack on numerous statcast metrics.

Are the five wins where only singles and doubles are coming from a stellar pitching performance, you ask? Great question, and the answer is pretty simple – yes.

Of the five games, all of the contests featured the Blue Jays’ opponents authoring three or fewer runs, with the starting pitchers for Toronto going six-plus innings in all but one of them (Berrios tapped out at 5 2/3, so almost there). So the Jays were able to squeak away wins where they didn’t hit a home run because their pitching was on point from start to finish. And of those five wins, Toronto hit the five-run mark in at least three of them, with each contest seeing Toronto hit double digits in the hit column.

The sample size is incredibly small, but it has some telling notes to start the year, especially since some of the key bats haven’t heated up yet in terms of finding home run power.

The bigger question will be whether this is sustainable, as most postseason-bound teams rank towards the top end of the power metrics when push comes to shove. Pitching can carry you a great distance, and if the Jays’ bats can put up 10+ hits on the regular, they should be in good standing. But neither is guaranteed, and power is better to have than play without, but until those bats do show up, the Jays will continue to try and find ways to win the close games and hope the pitching staff keeps shoving at the same rate.