<p><a href="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/2023/12/05/the-blue-jays-will-select-20th-overall-in-the-2024-mlb-draft/">The MLB Draft Lottery</a> took place during the Winter Meetings on Tuesday and the Blue Jays will be drafting 20th overall. Last year, with the same pick, they took Arjun Nimmala — who&#8217;s generally considered a steal, as he was ranked as a top-10 prospect in many draft rankings.</p>
<p>Makes you wonder about 20th overall picks in prior years, both by the Jays and by other teams. How well have teams done with this slot in the past?</p>
<p></p>
<h2>The good</h2>
<p>In 1987, the Baltimore Orioles drafted a promising young pitcher out of high school in the 11th round (272nd overall). The player declined to sign and instead went to Stanford, where he pitched for the Stanford Cardinals. When he re-entered the draft in 1990, Baltimore drafted him with the 20th overall pick, paying him a then-handsome $225,000 signing bonus. The young man was <a href="https://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/3/3/2027543/career-profile-mike-mussina"><em>considered a very advanced pitcher with a lot of polish, above-average stuff (90-94 MPH fastball, knuckle-curve, slider, changeup) and a high level of intelligence (he graduated with a degree in economics</em>)</a>. Baltimore was very high on him, but even they did not expect Mike Mussina to earn 82.8 WAR over an 18-year MLB career (the highest of any 20th overall pick) with five all-star games, seven gold gloves, and a Hall of Fame induction in 2009.</p>
<p>In 1998, Cleveland had the 20th overall pick. They decided to gamble on a <a href="https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/4903-cc-sabathia/">big kid with some red flags</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;<em>At the time of the draft there was some question about his weight and, consequently, his makeup, but the Indians never hesitated and couldn&#8217;t be happier with the choice. Prolonged negotiations limited C.C. Sabathia to five starts at Rookie-level Burlington. Tremendous size, strength and athleticism. His upside is as big as (No. 1 prospect) Russell Branyan&#8217;s. Sabathia can hit 97 mph&#8211;and that&#8217;s with unrefined mechanics. He has a plus curve and changeup, and a feel for both. Sabathia&#8217;s body is still a concern. He&#8217;s going to have to work hard to maintain a good playing weight that will allow him to fully realize his potential. He also needs work on his mechanics, which are inconsistent. Sabathia is ticketed for the rotation at low Class A Columbus in 1999. He is being put on the same fast track Jaret Wright rode to Cleveland.&#8221;  </em></p></blockquote>
<p>The result, as they say, is history. Sabathia went on to earn 62.3 WAR over 19 seasons, with six All-Star appearances, one World Series ring, and a Cy Young Award.</p>
<p>Back in 1993, the Minnesota Twins gave a qualifying offer to pitcher John Smiley. Smiley declined and ended up signing with the Cincinnati Reds. The Twins received a compensatory draft pick, #20, which they used to draft Torii Hunter. At first, their decision did not look great. Hunter made it to the majors in 1197, but from 1997 to 2000, he only played 241 games and earned a grand total of negative 0.5 WAR. But after a re-tooling on his swing in 2000, Hunter exploded. From 2001-2015, he earned five all-star nods, nine gold gloves, and two silver slugger awards for a total career WAR of 50.7</p>
<h2>The bad</h2>
<p>Of course, there were a few near-misses: teams that took a player at #20 but missed on players taken one or two picks later.</p>
<p>In 1985, the Mets took Gregg Jefferies at #20. Not a bad pick &#8211; he earned 20 WAR over a 14-year MLB career, and even played in two all-star games. But, taken two picks later, Rafael Palmiero earned 72 WAR and is one of only 33 players to have 3,000 hits in their MLB careers.</p>
<p>Two years later, the Tigers took Bill Henderson, a catcher from Westminster Christian High School in Florida. Bill never made it to the majors. But Craig Biggio, taken two spots later, did. Craig is another member of the 3,000 hit club &#8211; and of the Baseball Hall of Fame.</p>
<p>In 2012, the Blue Jays had two first-round picks: #17 (their regular 2012 pick) and #22 (compensation for failing to sign Tyler Beede in 2011). With the 17th pick, they took outfielder D. J. Davis, who never made it to the majors. But with the #22 pick, they redeemed themselves by gambling on an undersized but overtalented pitcher from Duke. Marcus Stroman has 21 WAR so far in his career, and is still going strong.</p>
<h2>The Ugly</h2>
<p>The last time the Jays had pick #20 before 2023 was in 2009. They used it to take Chad Jenkins, a pitcher from Kennesaw State University. Jenkins went on to pitch 100 innings for the major league team, earning 1.4 WAR. This isn&#8217;t terrible, given that many 20th overall picks do not make it to MLB at all. But in choosing Chad, the Jays passed on Kyle Gibson (taken #22) and his career WAR of 15 (and counting) and on Randal Grichuk (taken #24) and his 12.3 career WAR. And yes, there was another outfielder taken #25 by the L.A. Angels. His <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10040180-revisiting-predraft-scouting-reports-for-mike-trout-aaron-judge-and-other-mlb-stars">pre-draft scouting report (from Baseball America</a>) said:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;Last year, even in the fall, he had a tendency to bail out in the batter&#8217;s box, particularly against sliders. This spring he has quieted his approach and improved against breaking balls, and he&#8217;s shown the ability to hit hard line drives to all fields, though his swing still gets loopy and long at times. Halfway through the spring, he even began working on hitting left-handed, and he showed some aptitude for it. His frame and skill set draws comparisons to Aaron Rowand, but he&#8217;s a faster runner. &#8230; Like Rowand, he is a grinder who always plays the game hard.&#8221;</em></p></blockquote>
<p>I think it is fair to say that Mike Trout did turn out to be an upgrade from Aaron Rowand.</p>
<h2>The bottom line</h2>
<p>The above stories are just stories, presented for your amusement. We will have to see if the 2024 draft yields a Mussina, a Henderson, or (most likely!) something in between. Fingers crossed we get another player of Nimmala&#8217;s calibre!</p>
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<a href="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/2023/12/05/the-blue-jays-will-select-20th-overall-in-the-2024-mlb-draft/">The MLB Draft Lottery</a> took place during the Winter Meetings on Tuesday and the Blue Jays will be drafting 20th overall. Last year, with the same pick, they took Arjun Nimmala — who's generally considered a steal, as he was ranked as a top-10 prospect in many draft rankings.

Makes you wonder about 20th overall picks in prior years, both by the Jays and by other teams. How well have teams done with this slot in the past?


<h2>The good</h2>
In 1987, the Baltimore Orioles drafted a promising young pitcher out of high school in the 11th round (272nd overall). The player declined to sign and instead went to Stanford, where he pitched for the Stanford Cardinals. When he re-entered the draft in 1990, Baltimore drafted him with the 20th overall pick, paying him a then-handsome $225,000 signing bonus. The young man was <a href="https://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/3/3/2027543/career-profile-mike-mussina"><em>considered a very advanced pitcher with a lot of polish, above-average stuff (90-94 MPH fastball, knuckle-curve, slider, changeup) and a high level of intelligence (he graduated with a degree in economics</em>)</a>. Baltimore was very high on him, but even they did not expect Mike Mussina to earn 82.8 WAR over an 18-year MLB career (the highest of any 20th overall pick) with five all-star games, seven gold gloves, and a Hall of Fame induction in 2009.

In 1998, Cleveland had the 20th overall pick. They decided to gamble on a <a href="https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/4903-cc-sabathia/">big kid with some red flags</a>:
<blockquote>"<em>At the time of the draft there was some question about his weight and, consequently, his makeup, but the Indians never hesitated and couldn't be happier with the choice. Prolonged negotiations limited C.C. Sabathia to five starts at Rookie-level Burlington. Tremendous size, strength and athleticism. His upside is as big as (No. 1 prospect) Russell Branyan's. Sabathia can hit 97 mph--and that's with unrefined mechanics. He has a plus curve and changeup, and a feel for both. Sabathia's body is still a concern. He's going to have to work hard to maintain a good playing weight that will allow him to fully realize his potential. He also needs work on his mechanics, which are inconsistent. Sabathia is ticketed for the rotation at low Class A Columbus in 1999. He is being put on the same fast track Jaret Wright rode to Cleveland."  </em></blockquote>
The result, as they say, is history. Sabathia went on to earn 62.3 WAR over 19 seasons, with six All-Star appearances, one World Series ring, and a Cy Young Award.

Back in 1993, the Minnesota Twins gave a qualifying offer to pitcher John Smiley. Smiley declined and ended up signing with the Cincinnati Reds. The Twins received a compensatory draft pick, #20, which they used to draft Torii Hunter. At first, their decision did not look great. Hunter made it to the majors in 1197, but from 1997 to 2000, he only played 241 games and earned a grand total of negative 0.5 WAR. But after a re-tooling on his swing in 2000, Hunter exploded. From 2001-2015, he earned five all-star nods, nine gold gloves, and two silver slugger awards for a total career WAR of 50.7
<h2>The bad</h2>
Of course, there were a few near-misses: teams that took a player at #20 but missed on players taken one or two picks later.

In 1985, the Mets took Gregg Jefferies at #20. Not a bad pick - he earned 20 WAR over a 14-year MLB career, and even played in two all-star games. But, taken two picks later, Rafael Palmiero earned 72 WAR and is one of only 33 players to have 3,000 hits in their MLB careers.

Two years later, the Tigers took Bill Henderson, a catcher from Westminster Christian High School in Florida. Bill never made it to the majors. But Craig Biggio, taken two spots later, did. Craig is another member of the 3,000 hit club - and of the Baseball Hall of Fame.

In 2012, the Blue Jays had two first-round picks: #17 (their regular 2012 pick) and #22 (compensation for failing to sign Tyler Beede in 2011). With the 17th pick, they took outfielder D. J. Davis, who never made it to the majors. But with the #22 pick, they redeemed themselves by gambling on an undersized but overtalented pitcher from Duke. Marcus Stroman has 21 WAR so far in his career, and is still going strong.
<h2>The Ugly</h2>
The last time the Jays had pick #20 before 2023 was in 2009. They used it to take Chad Jenkins, a pitcher from Kennesaw State University. Jenkins went on to pitch 100 innings for the major league team, earning 1.4 WAR. This isn't terrible, given that many 20th overall picks do not make it to MLB at all. But in choosing Chad, the Jays passed on Kyle Gibson (taken #22) and his career WAR of 15 (and counting) and on Randal Grichuk (taken #24) and his 12.3 career WAR. And yes, there was another outfielder taken #25 by the L.A. Angels. His <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10040180-revisiting-predraft-scouting-reports-for-mike-trout-aaron-judge-and-other-mlb-stars">pre-draft scouting report (from Baseball America</a>) said:
<blockquote><em>"Last year, even in the fall, he had a tendency to bail out in the batter's box, particularly against sliders. This spring he has quieted his approach and improved against breaking balls, and he's shown the ability to hit hard line drives to all fields, though his swing still gets loopy and long at times. Halfway through the spring, he even began working on hitting left-handed, and he showed some aptitude for it. His frame and skill set draws comparisons to Aaron Rowand, but he's a faster runner. ... Like Rowand, he is a grinder who always plays the game hard."</em></blockquote>
I think it is fair to say that Mike Trout did turn out to be an upgrade from Aaron Rowand.
<h2>The bottom line</h2>
The above stories are just stories, presented for your amusement. We will have to see if the 2024 draft yields a Mussina, a Henderson, or (most likely!) something in between. Fingers crossed we get another player of Nimmala's calibre!

<hr />

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A History of Players Selected 20th Overall in the MLB Draft: The Good, The Bad, and Chad Jenkins

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