A really, really early look at this winter’s free agent class (for position players)

We really have no clue if there’s going to be a season this year.

I would lean towards no, personally, but I wouldn’t blame you if you help out hope for the sake of having something to look forward to during these times. Maybe the season gets cancelled altogether, maybe there’s a shortened season that starts in the middle of summer with a bunch of double-headers, maybe there’s a World Series Game 7 played on Christmas. Who knows.

But what we do know, thanks to Major League Baseball’s proposed deal with the Players’ Union, is that there’s going to be free agency this off-season. Even if the season gets cancelled, players will accrue a year of service time identical to what they earned over the course of the 2019 season. So even if the 2020 season goes sideways or gets wiped, the 2020 off-season will carry on mostly as expected.

Since there’s nothing else to talk about (I’m banking all my nostalgia and listicle content for later), let’s take a look at this winter’s free agency class!

Last year, it was Gerrit Cole. The year before, it was Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. This year, the big name on the market will be Mookie Betts. Of all of those players, Betts might be the biggest game-changer. If you’re going to throw a butt-load of money at any of those guys, he’s probably the one.

Over the past three seasons, Betts has produced 22.4 wins above replacement, slashing a .299/.389/.535 line with elite defence. That’s second only to Mike Trout, who, for the sake of comparison, produced a 25.2 WAR in 300 fewer plate appearances.

Obviously nobody compares to Trout because he’s on a different level than normal humans, but Betts’ performance in his three pre-FA seasons dwarfs what Harper and Machado did. Between 2016 and 2018, Harper was worth 11.1 wins and Machado was worth 14.9. To be fair to Harper, he dealt with injuries in 2017, but even if you move the goalposts to include his 2015 MVP-winning season, he still doesn’t touch Betts.

So, yeah. Betts, who turns 28 years old in October, is the best free agent to come around in a long time.

The Los Angeles Dodgers will certainly do everything in their power to keep him around. Having Betts walk as a free agent without ever playing a game in a Dodgers uniform would be devastating. Knowing Andrew Friedman, who graduated from the Tampa Bay Rays School of Asset Management, you have to assume he pulled the trigger on this deal with reasonably high faith that he could get Betts to stick around in L.A.

Betts declined a $300 million contract extension from the Red Sox, stating a desire to test the open market. That was obviously a low-ball offer on the part of the Sox and the Dodgers have deep enough pockets to offer more, but there’s still plenty of reason for Betts to test the open waters.

The consolation prize for teams who strike out on Betts would be George Springer. A few years ago when he was named World Series MVP, it looked as if Springer could be one of the guys headlining this free-agent class. A lot has changed since then.

Springer had a good season in 2019, slashing a .292/.383/.591 line for the best offensive showing of his career, but, like with everybody else on the Astros, there’s a giant asterisk question mark beside his numbers. Is Springer actually that good? Or was he the beneficiary of Houston’s sign-stealing? He’ll be 31 in the fall, so are you going to invest a bunch of money in a guy on the wrong side of 30 who may or may not need a guy banging on a trash can to know when a breaking ball is on the way?

After that, the list starts to thin out pretty quickly for outfielders. You have a handful of mid-30s type guys with upside and injury risk (like Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Michael Brantley, and Adam Eaton, if his option isn’t picked up) and others who fit best in platoon situations (like Joc Pederson and Marcell Ozuna). There’s also Jackie Bradley Jr. and Jake Marisnick for teams looking to make a glove-first upgrade.

The actual consolation prizes for those who miss out on Betts are J.T. Realmuto and maaaaaybe Marcus Semien.

Realmuto has been the best catcher in Major League Baseball over the past three seasons and will hit the open market seeking a deal at least as big as the one Yasmani Grandal signed a few months ago worth $73 million over four years. The Phillies gave up a lot to acquire Realmuto before the 2019 season so you have to assume they’ll be trying hard to keep him around.

Semien is more interesting of a case because he just had his breakout season last year. In 2019, he slashed a .285/.369/.522 line and finished third in the American League in MVP voting. His .892 OPS dwarfed his previous career-high of .735 set in 2016. Semien has also come a long way defensively from being a bat-first guy who didn’t even hit all that well. Banking on Semien’s late-blooming breakout season is a big gamble.

Another thing to consider when it comes to Semien is the market for free agent shortstops in 2022 appears to be stacked. If you wait a year, you’ll likely have a chance to sign Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, or Trevor Story. Not all of those players will make it to free agency, but at least a couple will, and most are probably safer bets than Semien.

Even if teams don’t want to be patient, Andrelton Simmons and Didi Gregorious are set to hit free agency this winter. Gregorious is on a one-year, show-me deal with the Phillies after missing half of 2019 due to injury and, if there isn’t a season, he’ll probably be due for that type of deal again. Simmons is probably still the best defensive shortstop in baseball and, even though it seems like he’s been around forever, he’s only 31 years old in the fall.

There are a million other random names left, but I’ll finish off by talking about a few interesting ones.

Betts is a major domino in Los Angeles because if he does end up sticking around, it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers will be able to afford all of (or, well, any of) Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, and Enrique Hernandez. They already tried to deal away Pederson in the first go-around of the Betts trade so he’s pretty clearly on the way out if Betts gets re-signed. Hernandez, the multi-dimensional super-utility guy, also likely gets bumped out with the emergence of Gavin Lux in the middle infield.

What about Turner? He’s kind of like L.A.’s version of Jose Bautista, a late-bloomer who joined the team with zero expectations who randomly broke out to become one of the game’s best hitters. Even though he’s turning 36 in November, Turner would be a huge addition to the middle of anybody’s lineup. Over the past three seasons, Turner has posted a 145 wRC+, better than names like Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, and Anthony Rizzo.

Beyond money, the difficulty for L.A. in retaining turner with Betts in the picture is where he fits on the roster as his defensive game obviously isn’t getting better. Turner’s bat is instrumental in L.A.’s lineup (especially in the post-season, where he’s slashed a .310/.411/.520 line over 54 games) but he might fit better on an American League team where he can spend time as the designated hitter.

If Betts sticks around with the Dodgers and they can’t afford to keep Turner around, he becomes the most attractive option for a team looking for an impact, veteran bat to insert into their lineup. Of course, the Dodgers letting Turner go is a very large if.