Blue Jays – Betting on a healthy pitching staff this season has turned into a flop

The Toronto Blue Jays were dealt a significant blow to their bullpen yesterday, as it was announced that closer Jordan Romano was heading to the IL after undergoing surgery on his elbow to repair an impingement. Romano will be on the sidelines for at least the next six weeks and could be on the shelf for the remainder of the season depending on the rehab and recovery process (as well as the Blue Jays postseason aspirations).

It’s been a season marred by injury for the Blue Jays pitching staff, with the travel secretary having to procure numerous flights to Dallas for players to visit Dr. Keith Meister – a known name in the sports world who has operated on numerous baseball players and their respective arm related injuries. It’s gotten to the point where if there was a punch card system for returning customers, the Jays’ next elbow surgery is likely free.

Alek Manoah was the first big league arm to go down for the long term, as he left his start on May 29th against the Chicago White Sox and underwent Tommy John surgery roughly two weeks later. Before Manoah, top prospects Brandon Barriera and Landen Maroudis also visited Dr. Meister early into the campaign and both left with some form of an elbow procedure, making it three high-profile arms from the Jays organization to be on the shelf for the rest of the season.

While Manoah is out for the year, numerous other Jays starters missed time with various ailments that tested the organization’s depth including Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodríguez while 2023 Cy Young finalist Kevin Gausman likely should have started the year on the IL but was able to push through and avoid an injury stint. Even the depth took a hit when Ricky Tiedemann, the Blue Jays top prospect, hit the IL after two starts in triple-A and has been working his way through rehab appearances down in Florida since June 14th.

Looking toward the bullpen, numerous dependable arms have spent time on the shelf at some point this season including Romano (x2), Chad Green, Erik Swanson, and Yimi García, who is currently working his way back to the active roster after being one of the club’s top relief options to start the year. On top of the injuries, Swanson has struggled mightily since his return and is now down in Buffalo fighting his way back to the big leagues while the Jays DFA’d their longest-tenured player in Tim Mayza last week, with the southpaw struggling to find his 2023 form.

After such a strong season last year, the Blue Jays pitching corps has taken a dramatic turn that now has the bullpen ranking as one of the worst in the game across numerous statistical categories while the starters have been hit and miss all season long outside of José Berríos, who has been the top arm by far. Collectively, the Jays pitching staff sports a 4.31 ERA (ranked 23rd) with a 1.29 WHIP (21st) and 8.13 K/9 (25th) while giving up a league-leading 117 home runs to the tune of a .252 average (24th). Overall, the pitching staff has been pretty disappointing outside of a few arms. Trevor Richards is one success story, with his 2.44 ERA through 37 outings becoming a focal point in a struggling relief corps while right-hander Chris Bassitt has found a groove as of late, sporting a 1.71 ERA through his last seven starts.

There will always be injuries in baseball, which is why depth within the organization is important should these situations arise. This past offseason, the Jays front office did not address Major League-ready pitching depth outside of re-signing Chad Green (which was likely going to happen anyway given his multitude of contract options) and adding Rodríguez and Paolo Espino, who is currently on the IL down in Buffalo. Given that the Jays farm system was noticeably lacking firepower in the higher minor leagues heading into the year, it was surprising that the organization didn’t add a few more arms to cover potential injuries or poor performance. They actually got rid of depth in the form of Yosver Zulueta and Mitch White early into the season, although an equal argument could be made that both weren’t going to be major factors in helping the cause this season (plus White was out of MiLB options).

With all the injuries, the Jays have done more of the heavy lifting over the past month and the transactions so far haven’t been needle-movers to any degree – Ryan Burr, James Kaprielian, Beau Sulser, Jose Cuas, Yerry Rodríguez, and longtime friend and a familiar face, Aaron Sanchez. Given the Jays’ current record, it makes sense why the club hasn’t been swinging deals for more high-leverage arms as of late (and could easily become sellers within the next few weeks) and has to live with arms like Cuas – who has struggled mightily so far with the Blue Jays.

Simply put, Ross Atkins and co. bet on a pitching staff that was overly healthy last season and one of the top collective groups to return to form and as we reach the midway point of the season, the front office is leaving the Casino with zero chips in their pocket. For comparison’s sake, the Jays used 25 different pitchers (excluding position players pitching) last season while the number after 86 games currently sits at 23 (and counting).

To think that the pitching staff would compete with the 3.78 ERA they put up last year was a sizeable gamble amidst a ‘postseason or nothing’ push and now the last-place ranking in the AL East is all the club has to show for it. It’s fair to say that it’s easier to make these comments when things have gone astray midseason compared to before the campaign gets underway but it was no secret that the Blue Jays farm system lacked pitching in the upper minor leagues heading into the Spring and this lack of depth could be cause for concern – which the Jays are currently struggling through.

While the subpar record is equally to blame for the inconsistency that is the Blue Jays offence, the pitching staff – especially in the bullpen – has been abysmal to the point that is likely unsalvagable and will require outside resources if the club is genuinely interested in a postseason run.

That appears to be more of a fever dream at this point in the season barring a winning streak of sizeable proportions but the fact remains the same – the Blue Jays’ front office bet on the pitching staff being healthy and repeating their success in 2024 and didn’t have a backup plan in place for when things went awry and are now paying the price.