Daily Duce: The post-Stroman trade reaction edition

“He was kind of psyched, maybe hoping to go there. I’m not going to tell you that he wasn’t,” the elder Stroman said. “If he was to leave Toronto at all. Don’t forget, Marcus loved Toronto, his heart was there. The brass didn’t kind of appreciate him as much as the fans did. The whole country took to him and they took to me.”

“To be honest with you, no frustration,” he said. “Nothing but positive times there. I can’t tell you all the lifelong friendships and relationships I’ve developed here. The moments that we’ve had here … Just being grateful for them all, to be honest with you.

“The frustration? It’s something that happened in an instant and was gone in an instant,” he added. “That’s not something that’s being held onto at all. I’ve been a Toronto Blue Jay for the last seven years. I wanted to be a Toronto Blue Jay for a long time. I understand the business side.”

“No frustration,” Stroman continued. “Nothing but positive times, man. I’ll do nothing but look back on these times and just be grateful for them all, to be honest with you.”

Then immediately contradicted himself. “The frustration is something that happens in an instant and it’s kind of gone in an instant.”

Repeated attempts draw out what Stroman meant about disliking how some of his matters were handled by the brass and went nowhere. “I’ve addressed this question multiple times.”

Well, no you didn’t, not specifics.

Atkins said he spoke directly with Stroman on occasion, “always very, very brief” chats. More often he’d connect with Stroman’s agent, Brodie Scoffield. Those conversations took place weekly in recent months and at least once per month over the last year, according to Atkins. Even in those exploratory talks, it became clear that the Blue Jays didn’t value Stroman the way his representatives did.

“You start to understand the parameters and desires of both sides,” Atkins said. “We felt as though there wasn’t a reason to continue because of the gap.”

I actually don’t mind losing these guys, if the Mets were one pitcher away from the Playoffs.

They aren’t.

Sure, maybe one of [the prospects sent to Toronto] turns out to be a front-line pitcher in the major leagues and a perennial All-Star. Maybe they live up to their hype after being top draft picks. Then again, maybe neither ever have an impact and they’re shipped out to other teams in the next few years.

In a study by Baseball America, just 20.1% of the prospects traded at the July 31 deadline since 2003 ever played at least two years in the major leagues and had a positive career Wins Above Replacement.

Yet, these days, most teams are terrified of trading prospects and the scrutiny it brings. They don’t want to take the gamble. They’re afraid of trading future All-Star Gleyber Torres to the New York Yankees even though Aroldis Chapman brought a World Series to the Chicago Cubs. And yes, Cubs president Theo Epstein would do it again in a heartbeat.

Really, when you think about it, the move is a stroke of genius.

In all, this looks to be a solid but unspectacular haul for the Blue Jays, who have gotten a pair of 45 Future Value prospects for an All-Star with one-plus year of club control remaining. There are no sure things with pitching prospects, and the Mets, whose farm system currently ranks 24th on THE BOARD, (which reflects the loss of Kay and Woods-Richardson) weren’t exactly waist-deep in them. Both rate as high risk, though with higher risk comes the potential for higher reward.

As for the Mets, it’s difficult to evaluate this move in a vacuum, since we don’t know which way they’ll go with Syndergaard, Wheeler, and the rest of their deadline plans. That Stroman’s strengths don’t align with those of the Mets — as currently constituted, at least — in terms of the quality of their defense does rate as a concern, as does the possibility that they’re in the midst of misreading the current landscape.

The only pitcher that can really hold a comparison to Woods Richardson’s 2019 season from an age and performance standpoint is 2008 Madison Bumgarner (2.06 FIP in 141 ²⁄₃ innings). It took Bumgarner one year after that to log innings in Double-A and another year two years to mold himself into one of the game’s best pitchers. Obviously, those standards are completely unfair to hold to Woods Richardson, but with a similar polish to Bumgarner, a fastball that tops in the mid-90s, and an early track-record of strong numbers, it wouldn’t be unreasobale to think that Woods Richardson could have that same ascendance up the minor league ladder and the prospect ranks.

The market right now values fastball velocity and strikeout rate, and so Stroman is not the prize of the market, with his 37th-best velo and 56th-best strikeout rate among 74 qualified starters. The potential corresponding move to this trade for the Mets — trading Syndergaard, or so the rumors go — would sell the best velocity in the big leagues and the 31st-best strikeout rate. The Mets could think they are besting the market.